In the first quarter of this year, the white goods market performed well. According to the total data from Yikang, a market research organization, the retail sales of refrigerators increased by 17.1% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2018, and retail sales increased by 2.2% year-on-year; retail sales of washing machines increased by 15.0% year-on-year. , Retail sales volume increased by 7.4% year-on-year; air-conditioning retail sales increased by 17.3% year-on-year, retail sales increased by 22.7% year-on-year; retail sales of freezers increased by 18.5% year-on-year, and retail sales increased by 12.4% year-on-year. From the year-on-year increase, the amount increase was more considerable.
Zhong Yikang predicts that this growth momentum in the white-box market will continue in the second quarter, but it will not last too long and will not perform as well in the first half of 2018. Many related people in the industry also expressed similar concerns. Some potential unfavorable factors will become the 'Sword of Damocles' that hangs on top of home appliance companies, which will adversely affect the market trend of white goods in the second half of the year.
Internal and external prices have become normal due to dual effects
According to the total data from Zhong Yi Kang, the prices of refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners rose significantly in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period of last year, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.2%, 7.1%, and 4.6% respectively. Meanwhile, kitchen appliances, life, Small household appliances and other multi-category products are showing varying degrees of price increases.
Price will always be one of the most important factors affecting the sales of home appliances. The increase in product prices will inevitably test the willingness of consumers to purchase, and will create huge uncertainties in the future sales of products. In the domestic appliance industry, due to the external factors and external factors, The prices of household electrical appliances in all categories will continue to rise, and the future will become normal.
From an external point of view, cost pressures are the direct cause of the increase in home appliance prices. Copper, plastics and other materials are important raw materials for home appliances, accounting for nearly 90% of the cost structure of home appliance companies. In the past two years, they have been subjected to supply-side structural reform and environmental protection. Due to the influence of relevant policies such as inspections, copper, aluminum, plastics and other raw materials are experiencing price increases. In 2017, copper prices oscillated upward. Among them, the copper index rose by as much as 30.9%; after the price increase in 2016, plastics started to rise again in 2018. Entering a new round of price increase cycle. While the rapid increase in raw material costs, labor costs, logistics costs, warehousing costs, etc. are also growing rapidly. This may be even worse for home appliance industries where profits have been very thin. It is not difficult to understand.
From an internal point of view, the large home appliances market, such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners, has entered a mature stage, and the brand structure has a clear 'Matthew effect'. This provides advantageous brands with room to improve their profits. Major home appliance companies continue to increase their products. R & D efforts to launch many innovative products, but due to increased investment in cost, R & D, marketing costs, product prices will inevitably rise, industry insiders predict that with the trend of consumer transformation and upgrading, the future price of home appliances will remain high status.
The weather turns into a win-win situation
At present, the air-conditioning industry is falling back into high inventory pressures. The data shows that in March 2018, the air-conditioning industry's factory + channel total inventory reached 39.10 million units. Some industry insiders believe that the air-conditioning industry is in high inventory in March and April due to industry characteristics. Peak is also a relatively common phenomenon, but whether the current inventory will exert pressure on the industry, the key is the air-conditioning industry sales in May-August. For example, in February 2016, air-conditioning inventory was as high as more than 42 million units, but due to the high season Well-sold, direct-sold out, inventory pressure fully released. And the reporter found that the air-conditioning retail sales in 2014 was 42.15 million units, the air-conditioning retail scale in 2017 was 57.88 million units, and the industry expanded by 37% in four years. Personnel analysis believes that the same inventory, in 2018, the air conditioning industry will digest less time.
However, due to weather conditions, air-conditioning products are affected by weather conditions, and the future market conditions are also quite variable. If the weather is hot, it will easily lead to the release of stocks in the high season. If the weather is cooler, the inventory pressure remains tight. In addition, the industry is more worried that the When inventory inflates and supply exceeds demand, will leading companies take the lead in the outbreak of product price wars as in 2014. In the current situation of large raw material prices, enterprises have no room for downward price, and the outbreak of price war will undoubtedly affect SMEs. A serious blow is not conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Therefore, 'investigate the production and sales situation, the reasonable deployment of inventory' is the major air-conditioning companies need to consider the issue before the summer.
The number of trade frictions has a greater impact on real estate ebbs
In addition to the unfavorable factors of the home appliance industry itself, the external environment may also have an impact on the performance of the white goods market in the second half of the year. The recent debate on whether 'China-US trade frictions will affect the healthy development of the Chinese home appliance industry' is the focus of discussions in the industry because The list of Chinese goods to be advertised for tariffs is related to some electrical products and accessories. In response, the China Household Electrical Appliances Association believes that the current list of household electrical appliances involved in the list is relatively small, and Chinese household electrical appliances subject to list restrictions are exported to the United States. The total amount of household electrical appliances accounts for less than 5% of total exports. As a whole, the impact on the Chinese home appliance industry is not significant. In response, Jiang Feng, chairman of the China Household Electrical Appliances Association, also said in an interview: “Current domestic domestic appliance market in China. With good development, consumption upgrade has led to steady development of the industry. Household appliance products account for less than 30% of total sales. China's home appliances have formed a pattern of mainly domestic sales and supplemented by foreign sales. They are capable of resisting the impact of trade friction. 'But, the industry The people hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the current development of the incident and do not rule out possible future trade frictions. Appliance industry will have a negative impact.
Compared with the impact of trade friction, the adverse impact of changes in real estate trends on the household appliance industry has gradually emerged. According to the National Bureau of Statistics data, from January to March 2018, China’s real estate sales area increased by 3.6%, compared with the same period last year, commercial housing The cumulative increase in sales floor area was 19.5%. It can be seen that the real estate boom is fading. The rise and fall of the real estate industry is often a trend indicator that affects the sales of home appliances. A large number of home appliances have a positive correlation with real estate, such as air conditioning, Kitchen appliances, refrigerators, washing machines, etc. When the real estate industry enters a recession period, the home appliance industry will also be subject to the short-term, major negative impact of the real estate market changes.