From April 25th to 27th, the highly-recognized 2018 China Automobile Forum was held in Beijing. The theme of this forum is 'New Era, New Trends, New Strategies - Focus on High-Quality Development in the Automotive Industry'. This forum was closed. Summit, forum, nine thematic forums, and three concurrent events. On the theme forum of “Trends in the Trend Car Market Trends and Consumption Upgrades” held on the afternoon of April 26, Robenberg partner Kang Bohan published an article titled ' “Discussing the Subversive Revolutionary Trends in the Global Automotive Market: A Great Speech. The following is a speech record:
Roland Berg Partner Kang Bohan
Thank you all, we talked a lot, listened a lot, talked about different trends, trends in China, and international opportunities. What are the trends I share today for vehicles that import and export? In our research done by Roland Berger, we studied the entire automotive industry. We studied four different directions. We can use the four-letter 'MADE' to summarize. M stands for mobility, and it stands for us from the owner. This change from having a car to a car is an increasingly common change. Another change is that automation is represented by A. This means that people have more and more opportunities to drive, what D stands for, that is, The numbers we talk about today, the digitization, and the services that come with each car and car will become part of the Internet. The last one is E. It is the trend of trams. Trams will have a huge impact on us. Bring changes to the industry and make the car's performance change a lot. These four trends are combined to create what we call a subversive environment.
Well, let's go straight to the topic and talk about the three parts I want to talk about today. Let me first talk about the vision of the industry, the future trend, and the development track of the vision for 2018. In addition, I would also like to introduce it. It may also appear. What is the possible situation of autopilot in the next five years? We can see from this map that in the future auto-pilot robots will drive, autopilot will provide a service for us, and then it will be cheaper to drive. It's a lot cheaper than today's taxis. This shared, or shared, future is our expectation. When we study concretely, when we study the characteristics of each country and region, we will find a lot of differences. The speed is amazing and embraces the future. Regardless of the development of new ways of traveling, or the replacement of our traditional cars. In addition to that, the United States now has strong advantages. They are also making changes. They use cars as vehicles. In the change, for the Europe I came from, I am a Swede. We can now say that we are behind people. We can see that we are now trying to win. This disadvantage can come from behind. Now, no matter how we say that in legislation, we are really lagging behind.
India is also a very big market for us, and it is not very fast for autopilot. Let's take a look at how to position it. How to position it in such a change? There are actually different latitudes in this change. How do we invest in the direction of automotive electrification, for example, how do we choose our battery or battery pack, and then there are words that we refer to as automation, and if other words are such signals between our cars? The connection, that is, the concept of the IoT, and then there is the electrification, which will also affect our car companies to provide services in some ways. So for us, these latitudes are all considered for future development. In some directions, if we are facing the future, we know where we are now. As Roland Berger we have done more comprehensive five latitudes. Such an indicator has been screened. In this way, everyone can log on to us. The website looks at our survey report and now has a Chinese version for everyone. At that time, we closed The trend of change in more than a dozen countries reflects the different directions of development in each country and region. Let's take a look at what changes have taken place in the Chinese region. Take a look at the grey part, which is a state of the Chinese market. Then In some cases around the world, then we can see that the grey areas are still lower than the world average, but China is still a leader in some areas of these fields. We believe that China will bring about subversive changes in the future. Then we It also analyzes different consumption patterns and consumer groups. We divide different regions, continents, and countries. Here we can look at the following. The following means that if there is a self-driving vehicle, I would be willing to use it. The above is that even if there is a self-driving vehicle, I still want to drive my own car. The third group of words is that the average American car is owned by almost every person, so we can look at the American map, as the United States However, they are reluctant to use self-driving vehicles. They would rather drive themselves, especially This kind of city with a higher population density tends to have such a tendency. Looking at the bottom, these markets are not particularly mature. In markets where these economies are not particularly mature, we all prefer automatic driving technology. Driving a vehicle, not driving it on its own, for us, how do we provide such a complete approach to the needs of the market and the attitudes of consumer groups? We have to consider where and how often these consumers use their cars. Weekly vacations with family members provide solutions in different ways. There are also emerging economies. Both China and India reflect different situations. Consumers may want to buy autonomous vehicles and have a car of their own. Therefore, for us, considering different consumer groups, different views have different ways, embracing and welcoming self-driving, and having self-owned private cars, this time taking into account the different needs in the market, how should it be different? The direction then, for us, cross-regional cross-border, taking into account the different driving styles.
For OEMs, they provide different ways for vehicles. Then they have several different ways of development. First of all, at the very beginning, for example, Volkswagen or Audi, they are all at different stages and have different functions. Come in. Another word is a leap-forward direction. It will develop from level 1 to level 2 directly. In this case, you need to develop better applications. This will better help us provide travel solutions. For example, When it comes to automated driving, then for the world, it may be for our OEM, that is, when it comes to R&D, we have to consider the objective requirements and other limitations. After that, we look at the suppliers. They are all through mergers and acquisitions. After completing the continuous integration, this table shows every year, from 12 to 17 years, that the structure has undergone different changes. Then they are also active in such markets, to constantly integrate their own advantageous resources. I give We give a more specific example. This is a report that we released a few weeks ago. Here we mentioned a new type of car. For example, For a specific industry, it will manufacture or develop a customized car, so why would such a situation occur? It may not say that considering the use of traditional sales channels to promote their own customized vehicles will be The industry's needs are specially designed and produced. Then the supply chain will be simpler and the retail channels will be saved. So for such a demand, it is estimated that in the next seven or eight years, it will be until 2025. At the time, reaching 25 million in demand, for us, these prices have a new model, which will be 50% lower than the price of traditional retail channel vehicles. So that is to say, some companies are required to have sufficient predictions. Under the premise of low cost, manage our own team, because now, we also mentioned, we often mentioned that we also mentioned different viewpoints before, such as the emergence of some automatic driving, or other changes, We need to take into account different development prospects, normal operations, and for normal operations, we will maintain compliance with compliance and then maintain normal Operation, the normal mode of operation now. So it does not mean that this normal, or normal operation, is foolproof. Then we have to consider how we allocate our investment under normal operations. Say if there is some new investment in new energy vehicles.
The second termination may be somewhat complicated. This content was completed when I was flying from China to the European aircraft during the Chinese New Year, because at that time, I took it into account because we may have some regulatory changes in the government. There will be developmental delays. For example, other social factors, such as strikes, such as taxi driver strikes, are different in each region and country. Some regional governments have issued some barriers to the establishment of trade or technology, so this time We need to think about the direction of our development in this kind of economic ecosystem. The realization is driven by people every year. When a normal vehicle is driven, there are about 2 million people who die each year in a car accident. We need to consider this time. To adopt a new technology, or to rebalance, to reduce the number of casualties, we must consider some of our future strategies. And then, we must also consider some of the ecological aspects such as OEM and MSP and technical integrity. Systems. For example, how do we provide consumers with shared, self-driving vehicles that consume I believe these issues are all things that we are thinking about. We also need time to think seriously. Finally, we will realize some of the current ideas. But we also need to step up our own pace to increase market share. For example, The U.S. has excellent steps, there are drops, and the development methods are very fast. So, as we are here, we also have to keep up with the changing trend. There is cooperation between Didi and Baidu, and Uber and other companies. The mode of cooperation, of course, this kind of cooperation, this scenario may be varied, and they may all bring about a big change in our market.
I sum up. We mentioned different views of autopilot. We mentioned four viewpoints. They are all motivating the development of our industry. The change is very fast. We grasp this trend and then autopilot technology. So that is to say, our industry participants, investor distributors MST, or our vendors, considering how their own ecological environment is a strategy can maintain a place in the future and will not be eliminated. Thank you for listening.