Non-ferrous metals industry continues to operate smoothly | exports face greater pressure

Monthly Report of China's Non-ferrous Metal Industry Boom Index

China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Economic Daily China Institute of Economic Trends, National Bureau of Statistics China Economic Monitoring Center

In April 2018, the China Non-Ferrous Nonferrous Metals Industry Climate Index was 23.1, down by 0.3% from the previous month. The China Non-Ferrous Nonferrous Metals Industry Leading Index was 62.1, down by 0.7% from the previous month. The consensus index was 66.6, up from the previous month. 0.5%. According to preliminary judgments, the China Non-Ferrous Nonferrous Metals Industry Climate Index runs relatively smoothly in the 'normal' interval.

Nonferrous Metals Industry Climate Index from April 2017 to April 2018

month

Pre-synthetic number

Uniform synthesis number

Hysteresis synthesis number

Gas index

(2005 = 100)

(2005 = 100)

(2005 = 100)

April 2017

64.6

80.1

61.8

31.9

May 2017

63.1

77.5

63.6

30.0

June 2017

62.0

75.4

64.8

28.6

July 2017

62.2

73.3

65.4

27.8

August 2017

63.6

70.9

66.1

27.6

September 2017

65.6

68.3

67.0

27.5

October 2017

67.5

66.3

67.9

27.2

November 2017

68.0

65.3

67.8

26.5

December 2017

67.1

65.2

66.7

25.5

January 2018

65.5

65.4

65.3

24.5

February 2018

63.9

65.7

64.1

23.8

March 2018

62.8

66.1

63.4

23.4

April 2018

62.1

66.6

62.8

23.1

The industrial climate index fell slightly, but it is still in the 'normal' range

In April 2018, the China Non-Ferrous Nonferrous Metals Industry Climate Index showed 23.1, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Since the beginning of this year, the climate index has continuously declined, but the decline has decreased significantly, and it is still operating relatively smoothly in the 'normal' region.

Among the 12 indicators that constitute the non-ferrous metal industry's climate index, the LMEX index, M2, sales area of ​​commercial housing, non-ferrous metal imports, ten non-ferrous metal production, electricity generation, main business income, and non-ferrous metal exports in the 'normal' range Automobile production, home appliance production, total profit, etc. are located in the 'partial cold' interval.

Fig.1 Trends of non-ferrous metal industry's prosperity index in Figure 1

The composite index fell slightly earlier

In April 2018, the leading index of China Nonferrous Metals Industry was 62.1, down 0.7 points from the previous month. The leading index fell continuously for five months, and the decline rate was stable.

After the seasonal adjustment, of the seven indexes of the leading index, from the same period of last year, the four indicators increased, and the LMEX, M2, sales area of ​​commercial housing and non-ferrous metal product imports increased by 17.7%, 9.0%, 1.5% and 33.5% respectively. From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, M2, sales of commercial housing and imports of non-ferrous metal products all increased by 0.7%, 1.1% and 0.5% respectively.

Figure 2 Mid-term non-ferrous metals industry prosperity signal diagram

Non-ferrous metals industry continues to operate smoothly

From an international point of view, since the beginning of this year, the recovery momentum of the major economies in the world has continued to increase, the US economy has continued to recover, the European economy has enjoyed a strong recovery, the Japanese economy has continued its moderate recovery, and the relative advantages of emerging economies have gradually expanded. However, the world economy is still facing monetary easing. Policies need to be adjusted, structural problems of economic growth remain, and three major uncertainties such as the rise of trade protectionism.

From the domestic point of view, China’s economic growth has continued steadily and steadily since the beginning of this year, and its development momentum has been stable. China’s gross domestic product was 19878.3 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, which was a year-on-year increase of 6.8% at comparable prices. The characteristics of 'steadiness, newness, excellence, and good' can support the growing accumulation of favorable conditions for the development of high-quality economy, and lay a good foundation for the stable and healthy economic development of the year. In April, the manufacturing PMI was 51.4%, slightly lower than that. At the rate of 0.1% last month, but still higher than the average of the first quarter and 0.4 and 0.2% over the same period of last year, the manufacturing industry continued to maintain a steady growth trend. Based on the performance of macroeconomic indicators such as comprehensive economic growth and urban unemployment, we can see that In the coming period, we will continue to maintain steady, steady, and steady momentum. This economic situation has also created conditions for deepening supply-side structural reforms, vigorously implementing innovation-driven reforms, further expanding reform and opening up, and strengthening the development of endogenous driving forces. However, it should also be noted that some hidden concerns still exist, the domestic structural contradictions are still prominent, the downward pressure on economic growth is relatively large, the growth of residents' income is slow, and the zero consumption of society continues. Gain pressure.

From the perspective of non-ferrous metals industry, China's non-ferrous metals industry has a generally stable production and production. In March, the output of ten non-ferrous metals was 4.554 million tons, which was a year-on-year increase, and the increase was 1.0% and 8.3% respectively. The main business of the whole industry was 4691.4 in the same period. Billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease, was a month-on-year increase, which was a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%, and a month-on-month increase of 38.5%. Total industry profit for the same period was 12.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.3%, and an increase of 16.7% year-on-year. Warmer consumer spending, stronger environmental protection, and The structural reforms on the supply side caused a variety of factors such as supply shortages, and the market conditions of the non-ferrous metals are improving. However, as trade frictions between China and the United States continue to heat up, the international trade environment for the whole industry, especially aluminum exports, has been deteriorating and exports are facing more In addition, it should also be noted that the continuous decline in investment in the non-ferrous metals industry has not yet been changed. At present, due to the dual constraints of resources and the environment, the dual squeeze of excess supply and rising costs, the double short of technological innovation and expanding applications. Board constraints, the industry is still difficult to fundamentally improve in the short term.

In general, the non-ferrous metals industry is still expected to maintain a stable operation in the coming period.