From April 25th to 27th, the highly-recognized 2018 China Automobile Forum was held in Beijing. The theme of this forum is 'New Era, New Trends, New Strategies - Focus on High-Quality Development in the Automotive Industry'. This forum was closed. Summit, forum, nine thematic forums and three concurrent events. On the theme forum of “Trends in the Trend Car Market Trends and Consumption Upgrade” held on the afternoon of April 26th, Xu Changming, deputy director of the National Information Center, published a paper titled ' The development trend of the automotive market' wonderful speech. The following is the speech record:
Deputy Director of the National Information Center Xu Changming
Xu Changming: Good afternoon, everyone, to share with you the situation of the total auto market, the development trend of the second new energy vehicle. This picture is a change in our country over the past ten years. Everyone saw 2.1 million vehicles in 2000, to In 2010, 2.18 million vehicles, the annual increment is not small, the average annual growth rate in recent years has dropped to 6.8, which is the past, probably, we calculated in accordance with the 2016 data of 28 million vehicles, a country's sales are quite The combined total of the third and fourth countries in the second place was 1.5 million more than last year, 2.6 million more than last year, which is equivalent to the fifth to the twentieth place. The three figures account for the world’s total sales. 88%, there are 200 countries and regions added to a 12%, China accounted for 30% of the global, the changes in the Chinese automotive market, the changes in the Chinese automotive industry, has aroused global attention, our forum is also good, auto show also Well, it's very lively, and the world's most advanced all come to our auto show.
In the future, we can judge whether there are still 50% increase in 2018, that is, 28 million to 14 million. According to the calculation last year, 13 million will be added, and 43 factories will be built. Some It may be rich. There is a peak in holdings, which is equivalent to 15 times the amount of demand. The economic concept is that an average vehicle will be scrapped for 15 years. From the time it is put into and out of the market, the average is 15 years. Sales volume peak forecasting is very difficult. One is the total population of a country, one is a car on average. Our average population is 14.2 to 14.5. Demographers are all predicting that cars are forecasting this. On average, there are several cars per person, and the world is saturated with more than 20 countries, with an average of six. One hundred thousand people, with 0.6 vehicles per person, can our country achieve this mean value. Three factors have an impact. The first is the economy. This factor is very important. We see that there are two types of economies in the world. It is successful in entering a high-income state. One-to-middle-income traps, South Korea and Japan are all entering a high-income state, and high-income and middle-income are worth $12,000. , Low is called low income, and the amount of ownership below it will develop smoothly. If it cannot be smooth, it will not work. One Brazil, one Philippine, Brazil in 1980 to 2003 for more than 20 years, per capita GDP was not more than 8,000 US dollars. Moving on the left, the Philippines is on the left. The per capita GDP is a thousand dollars, and the number of thousands of people is still on the rise. The world has 101 middle-income countries from the end of World War II to middle-income. Only thirteen countries can break into middle-income income and high-income, and eight in Europe. There are five in Asia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan. We are now very critical. We make medium and long-term predictions. The key is whether our economy can develop smoothly or not. The Nineteenth Congress proposed to have a comprehensive well-to-do society by 2020. This number can be used for 11,000. US dollar. It was basically modernized in the 15th year of 2035. Forecasting the forecast value accepted by the country, the country did not mention the target, and the predicted GDP per capita growth rate was about 5%, a little higher in previous years and a little lower in the following five years.
As we move forward, we will accept forecasts of 3% per year and 1.03 times 15 times. If we can develop this way smoothly, the forecasted value can support 0.6 per person from the perspective of economic development. In particular, the 19th National Congress proposed a policy. , It is called narrowing the income gap, mainly to achieve common prosperity, increase the proportion of middle-income people, increase the income of low-income people, narrow the gap between the living standards of residents in urban and rural areas, and adjust excessively high income to ban illegal income. The next three to four million vehicles The sales are not so hot now, low income is banned, high income is dispelled, and the middle sales are very good. This policy is very good for cars. The Academy of Social Sciences did an analysis. This 23% of the population are basically There are cars, thousands of people have a quantity, there are more people from 280 to 420, one is newer, and a new group is entering, that is, the working class and the peasant class. These two together are 72. These people must be There are cars.
Now the income distribution policy is precisely for these people to buy a car. This is very good. From the economic point of view, we don’t have to worry about it. Our country is special. It is different from other countries. We have some man-made purchase restrictions. There is no limit to the relationship between the number of people buying a car and the population density. The lower the population density is, the higher the amount of ownership is for thousands of people. This is also true for different districts within each city. The same holds true for London Paris, the population density on the left and the density on the right. And the color depth means high density, the light color means thin density, the population density of the New York suburbs is relatively low, the population of 1,000 people is over 800, the population density of New York City is very high, and the population of 1,000 people is less than 100. This is not the case with a limited purchase. Dark colors represent high density, low density of light colors, and the purchase of cars outside the Wuhuan Ring may be limited. We have a density of about 300 in the central area of Gaocheng and about 100 in the suburbs. If there is no restriction, the suburbs may have four or five hundred. , because a country's area has thousands of people in different stages.
At the present stage, most places are linked to per capita income levels. The higher the per capita income, the higher the amount of ownership. Where each family can afford to buy a car, the key factor becomes the population density. The population density determines the parking of your home. No one can buy a car without a parking space. This is a big situation. Now that this situation is limited to six cities, we are now more worried that more cities will limit purchases, and the purchase of thousands of people on the first line will come down. After the population, the total amount retained cannot go up. Multiplied by 15 sales, the research is also positive. The construction of the sub-center in Tongzhou reduced the population density to 10 million in Xiong'an New District. Each capital city was adjusted. Go to Hefei, the place of the Anhui provincial government, Hefei city government went to another place, now manufacturing industry from big city to small and medium-sized city, is also grooming population density, this is natural, there is our policy adjustment, Beijing Hukou everyone knows How difficult is it, as the population now has a negative growth in Beijing for the past two years, it has not increased again.
There are also positive factors. Our country can probably reach 5,000 people, and each person has 0.45 vehicles, multiplied by 14.5, or about 630 million possessions. This is a mean, it's less than 15, and it's a little longer than 15 years. 16 So we were optimistic. There was a problem. Other countries have popularized cars. We haven’t encountered any problems we have encountered. That’s the problem of oil supply. In 2020, we have more possessions than the United States, making us the world’s largest in-house country. Sales volume exceeds that of the United States. Sales volume becomes the largest country. In 2020, it holds the largest volume. Our car market is unlimited. On the left is the vehicle ownership. On the right is the U.S. oil consumption, U.S. consumption is 680 million tons, and we consume 5.8 million U.S. oil, according to our inventory. With 600 million calculations, according to our country's calculations, these two figures are similar. The oil industry is very stable at an annual rate of 200 million tons, and all of our increased oil consumption comes from imports. After the current car sales volume goes up, the oil consumption from motor vehicles will increase by 3,000 a year. Tens of thousands of tons, an increase of one hundred million tons in three years. This is a difficult thing for the oil industry. The auto industry must find a way to solve it. What is a new energy vehicle? I am more happy. , Now our policy is a bit focused on pure electric, fuel-efficient operational attention is not enough, like deep mixing, in fact, if we give this subsidy, hybrid cars can be sold immediately, this is not yet, more difficult, technical requirements Gao, our domestic companies do hybrid cars, but Toyota may not be able to do other companies. If we support this, the next step is to have two, one is a new energy-saving vehicle, which will be solved. This is a general view. .
In order to find a way out, it is estimated that 42 million vehicles are reliable. Everybody has a judgment on the entire automobile market in China. We must not increase production capacity, and we must not put on new models. We look at new energy sources. New energy vehicles have been growing rapidly for four consecutive years. High growth should be said that most of the credit is due to policies, the three major policies, one is high subsidies, one is the preferential license for vehicle licenses, a government-funded resource, and bus city logistics, etc. Of course, we also say that there are positive changes. It can be seen that the role of market factors has increased. The graph on the left is a commercial vehicle and a passenger car. The percentage has reached 75%. It is the car ownership. This is a good phenomenon. Development must depend on passenger vehicles. New areas The number of passenger cars inside, the number of new energy passenger vehicles is one hundred, and the number of unit users is 57 and the number of individuals is 42. Last year, the number of unit users dropped to 21%, and private ownership accounted for 72.8. This is a large proportion. We look at private households. Whoever buys, one type of city that is restricted to purchase, one type of non-restricted city, which has no meaning. To develop, rely on non-restricted purchase of cities, China’s major development cannot rely on restrictions on purchases, non-restricted purchase cities have reached the data in January and February of this year. 20%, all year round. By the end of this year, around 70% of the cities will be non-restricted cities. These are positive changes. We can see that the next double-integration policy will lead to the rapid launch of joint venture new energy vehicles. This is a popular one. In 2016, the planning for double points has been delayed a little bit. Traditional cars account for 20% of the total, and new energy also accounts for 20%. Volkswagen's R&D investment is very large. The pure electric feeling of golf is still very good. The supply side promotes the development of new energy vehicles. In the future, competition will change. Today's competition will be autonomous and self-competitive. In the future, it will become a joint venture and joint venture competition. The market for new energy vehicles will be very fierce. Now, only autonomous vehicles can be purchased. , The next step is to expand northbound to Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Shenzhen, so that the joint venture products will be there. The double-pointing policy will boost the total amount. On the one hand, there will be a compression on self-branded products. In Beijing, 60,000 vehicles are autonomous, and the next step is It is not, if you let a lot of people choose to buy a joint venture product, there is a change in the cost of the battery, the performance is improving, the figure on the left, the line on the top that enjoys the subsidy in the catalog Type, the number of watt-hours per kilogram, the more this density increases, the lighter the weight of one-hundred kilometer is lighter, the right is the life course, and the average new energetic life of 2017 is 228 kilometers, which is favorable to consumers to buy cars. With the decrease in battery cost, how much a watt-hour is, multiplied by one thousand is a kilowatt-hour. In 2020, 900 kilograms of electricity will be enough. Now, some cars are 300 kilometers, because once they are 100 kilometers and 15 degrees. , Without air conditioning and heating, this is a very positive change. To a certain extent, it will make up for the withdrawal of the state subsidy policy. All subsidies may not be subsidized. To a large extent, it can be compensated by the decrease in electricity cost. Future new energy The car is relatively good, but the volume is not very high at present, accounting for 2.7% of the total. In the future, with this change in policy, I think the future of new energy vehicles will have a better development. This is what I share with you. In two aspects, thank you all.