President Trump's Twitter has three characteristics: simple wording, direct attitude, and hot people.
ZTE is returning to life
Maybe it's Mother's Day. Trump on Twitter today is not as old as it used to be. After making a blessing for Happy Mother's Day, Trump suddenly sent a tweet that touched the nerves of the Chinese people: 'China President Xi He I am working together to give ZTE, China's big mobile phone company, a quick way to restore business. (If ZTE goes bankrupt) China loses too many jobs. I have instructed the US Department of Commerce to fix this.'
For ZTE, who has been in desperation for almost a month, Trump’s tweet is undoubtedly a great news for help. The US Department of Commerce announced on April 16 that ZTE has not complied with the settlement agreement with the U.S. government. , will implement a technical ban on ZTE for a period of seven years up to 2025; during the period, US companies are prohibited from selling components, goods, software and technology to ZTE.
Even the world’s fourth-largest telecommunications equipment manufacturer, ZTE’s core technology components cannot be separated from US technology giants in the global globalization of the technology industry. Therefore, the US’s ban on sales is equivalent to ZTE’s. A paper death penalty verdict. As the ZTE executives later said, the US ban on sales has caused the company to fall into a state of shock and the business has stagnated.
As ZTE illegally exported telecommunications equipment to Iran, in 2016 the United States issued a restraint order to ZTE, forcing ZTE to plead guilty in 2017 and pay US$1.2 billion in fines to the U.S. government (the first phase to pay 890 million U.S. dollars) and accept a series of rectification penalties. The reason why the United States punished ZTE again was that although ZTE had restructured its management and dismissed four directly responsible senior executives, it did not punish 35 business-related employees according to the settlement agreement but instead awarded bonuses to them. And provided false statements to U.S. government investigators.
ZTE can't fall
When the US financial crisis was a decade ago, there was a popular word “Too big to fail”; it means that some giant companies, even if they died for themselves, the government could not let them go bankrupt. When the US government took the rescue Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and American International Group (AIG) provide interest-free loans to the Detroit auto giants General Motors and Chrysler, which are on the verge of bankruptcy, to avoid greater negative impact on the economy and society caused by the collapse of these giants. .
For China's technology industry and even the Chinese economy, ZTE is also a giant company that cannot be allowed to collapse. ZTE is a giant enterprise with annual revenue of 100 billion yuan and 80,000 employees. Its industrial chain also involves hundreds of thousands of jobs. ZTE is an important force for China to win the global discourse right in the era of 5G communication. For the past eight years, patent applications have ranked the top three in the world; more importantly, ZTE is one of the most successful Chinese enterprises in globalization, and its overseas business The Chinese government's 'Belt and Road' strategy has more important significance.
Because of this, the Chinese government will not sit back and watch ZTE dying under the US ban. It has been actively helping Zhongxing to mediate and negotiate. When the United States first issued a ban on sales to ZTE in 2016, it was the Chinese Ministry of Commerce that helped ZTE apply for the United States. Suspend implementation so as to gain time to reach a settlement agreement on guilty pleas.
After the U.S. Department of Commerce punished ZTE again, it once said that there was no possibility of reconciliation. It also allowed the outside world to think that the limit of ZTE will come. But this Trump tweet statement shows that the attention of the Chinese government and leaders With help, under the direction of the U.S. president, the U.S. Department of Commerce will eventually change its stance and give ZTE another opportunity to reconcile. ZTE may again pay fines and may receive other penalties, but at least it is hopeful that the ban will be lifted. The core components needed to get the company back on track.
Sino-US interests game
Why does Trump ask the U.S. Department of Commerce to open up a side to ZTE? ZTE is also the fourth-largest smart phone manufacturer in the U.S. market. There are also hundreds of partners in the United States, creating tens of thousands of jobs. From this perspective, ZTE is indeed conducive to U.S. interests and employment. However, it is clear that Trump will not require the U.S. Department of Commerce to change its position because of this factor, otherwise, ZTE will not implement a lore campaign.
In fact, ZTE was originally not the purpose of the United States, but a means and tactics of negotiation. The former high-level officials of ZTE did indeed make many stupid mistakes. They illegally exported Iran in violation of the ban. They also received solid evidence from the United States, but US business After the Department severely punished ZTE for USD 890 million a year ago and required many rectification measures, it punished ZTE again in mid-April with no penalty of 35 employees. Obviously, the Sino-US trade war started at the end of March was not No relationship.
The Trump administration proposed to impose a punishing tariff of 50 billion U.S. dollars on Chinese imports at the beginning of April, and this caused the Chinese to return to the U.S.$50 billion retaliatory tariff. Although it seems that the trade war is imminent, the two losers are not half a century businessmen. Trump’s real purpose is to exert pressure on the Chinese government to make concessions on market access and import tariffs with tough measures and apportioning, and to reach an agreement at the negotiation table to reduce the huge trade surplus between China and the United States. This is his real purpose. ZTE provided the U.S. government with a seemingly legitimate pressure piece at an inappropriate time.
However, Qualcomm also gave the Chinese government an exchange bargain. Qualcomm’s $40 billion acquisition of NXP Semiconductors is currently only required to be approved by the Chinese regulatory authorities. However, due to the approval of the first transaction, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has rejected the transaction. Qualcomm missed the original transaction completion time (April 25) and had to submit the materials to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce again. If China is again vetoed and cannot complete the transaction in July, Qualcomm will not only miss this reshaping semiconductor industry. The great opportunity of the pattern, also needs to compensate NXP for a damage of 2 billion U.S. dollars.
Sino-U.S. common interest
Trump once said that he does not think that the trade war between China and the United States is just a trade negotiation between the two sides. For the past two weeks, trade officials between China and the United States have been conducting intensive negotiations. Although there is currently a large gap between the two parties, there is no Agreeing, but both sides are very clear that the negotiations may be the best choice for the world's two largest economies. The problem lies only in the conditions on which the parties agree.
However, Trump is also aware that while exerting pressure on China in terms of trade issues, he is still inseparable from China on many international issues. In particular, the recent North Korean issue and the Iranian issue both need to maintain good relations with China. North Korea It is inseparable from the United States’ ability to plan a summit meeting to discuss the nuclear issue in the near future without China’s assistance to the United States in pressuring North Korea to accept negotiations through economic sanctions. At the end of April, when it announced that it expected to negotiate with North Korea, Trump did not forget to follow Twitter. Openly thank the Chinese leaders.
Last week, Trump announced that the United States withdrew from the joint action plan reached in 2015 (ie, Iran’s nuclear agreement), hoping to force Iran to renegotiate nuclear waste recycling conditions with comprehensive economic sanctions. However, apart from the United States, Iran’s nuclear agreement involves four other parties. A permanent member, Germany and the European Union. To force Iran back to the negotiating table, the United States also needs the support of the permanent member of the Security Council China.
Big country diplomacy, there are no permanent friends or enemies, only eternal interests. The same applies to Sino-US relations. There are many conflicts of economic and trade interests in the two countries, but there are also more common interests and areas of cooperation, including key diplomatic issues. Trump has publicly demanded that the US Department of Commerce put ZTE in its path. This is obviously because the U.S. and China have reached more agreement. The U.S. is willing to spare China’s government’s request to spare Zeng’s original pressure piece.
