At present, domestic plastics inventories are still high, and are still in the destocking phase. At the same time, plastics futures prices are at a relatively high level after the Spring Festival this year, and are relatively high. There is limited upside for the market outlook. The market outlook needs to pay close attention to changes in international oil prices and shipments of foreign devices to the domestic market. The actual impact.
The picture shows the trend of the start of the domestic agricultural film contrast
In May, the downstream demand for domestic plastics began to weaken and agricultural film production gradually slowed down. However, at the same time, some PE production facilities are still expected to be routinely repaired this month, and the plastics market as a whole will show a weak supply and demand situation, or enter the stage. About two months relative to the low season of consumption.
Agricultural film production enters phased low season
Judging from historical laws, the period from May to June each year is the relative low season period for agricultural film production in China, and the domestic PE production facilities are also mostly repaired from April to May, thus staggering the demand trough. Since this year's Ching Ming, with the rapid temperature Going higher, orders from domestic plastic film production enterprises have been gradually reduced, and capacity utilization rate has also begun to decline. As 70% of the linear plastics are used for agricultural film production, the rapid decline in demand will make the overall supply of the domestic plastics market larger than necessary.
Domestic film production has remained low, according to statistics, the current capacity utilization rate of the domestic film is only about 10%, and is only produced by individual companies in the northwest. In view of the 'two oils' plastic inventory situation, the stage caused by the May holiday Sexual bank still suppressed market sentiment, domestic plastic inventory was higher than the same period of previous years, and the destocking process was slightly slower.
Recently, the operating rate of agricultural film companies has declined, and the downstream market has mixed views on the need to purchase raw materials. In particular, recently, the price of 'two oils' plastics has risen, and the downstream has begun to wait and see. This has also aggravated the accumulation of domestic plastic stocks. In terms of overall price trend, the current plastic period, the current price rebound is limited, basically in line with market expectations for the off-season.
Domestic equipment centralized maintenance support is limited
While the downstream demand is declining, the major domestic olefin plants are also concentrated in the second quarter. According to statistics, in April, a total of 23 sets of 4.97 million tons of PE equipment were inspected and overhauled, and most of the equipment was overhauled for more than 5 days. In May, there were seven sets of equipment with a total of 2.07 million tons expected to be overhauled, and some of the equipments would take a long time to repair or effectively reduce the plastic supply. However, this support is very limited considering that the downstream construction cannot be increased.
On the supply side, according to statistics, about 6.07 million tons of new plastic production capacity was put into operation worldwide this year, while the demand increase was only about 4.07 million tons, and there was an apparent oversupply pressure of about 1.37 million tons. As China is a plastic importer , Imports account for about 40% of China's total plastic consumption. Therefore, the impact of domestic production capacity on the market is not significant. Major foreign new installations are concentrated in North America and are mainly concentrated in the second quarter. Plastics supply pressure will be mainly concentrated on After the quarter.
At the end of domestic production capacity overhaul, new capacity in North America will also be put on the market, and global supply pressure will be highlighted.
In addition, international oil prices continued to increase, resulting in higher production costs for plastics. Recently, major domestic manufacturers increased their selling prices. However, due to the weak demand during the off-season, the demand for continuous depletion on demand continued to slow down, and manufacturers’ sales pressure increased. Therefore, the rising prices formed by the rising prices of raw materials are slightly underestimated.
In summary, the plastics market as a whole has entered the low season demand during the year, the overall domestic inventory is still high, still in the destocking phase. The overhaul of domestic production equipment has formed a certain support for the market, but the actual impact is limited, the domestic plastic market will enter the period Relatively low season period of about two months or so. The current price of plastics futures is at a relatively high level after the Spring Festival this year. It is relatively high, and there is limited upside for the market outlook. The market outlook needs to pay close attention to the changes in international oil prices and the actual impact of foreign device shipments on the domestic market.