The main points of this article are:
1, EVA data can clearly reflect the needs of the photovoltaic industry
2. Using the EVA data in May, it can be judged that the total output of global PV modules in the month is about 8.6 GW, and that of domestic modules in May is about 6 GW;
First, EVA is the golden key to solving the mystery of the PV industry demand
The concentration of individual key auxiliary materials manufacturers in the photovoltaic industry is very high. Photovoltaic glass sheets Flett and Xinyi Solar occupy more than 50% of the total; Silver Heraeus, Samsung SDI, DuPont and other giants occupy most of the market share; Diamond Wire forms Yangling Meichang, Sanchao New Material, Muller New Materials, Tony Electronics, etc. The pattern of large and small three-dimensions; Due to the fact that the upstream sub-industry industry of the photovoltaic industry is prone to oligopoly, several individual companies occupy most of the industries. Shares and a stable competitive landscape are the best sources for observing the needs of the entire industry chain. Among these, the most outstanding and nearly perfect industrial research materials are the EVA manufacturers' shipment data.
Personally think that EVA is the golden key to unlock the mystery of the PV industry's demand, mainly based on the following reasons:
1, the amount of EVA per component is clear
EVA is an adhesive film that must be used for PV modules. It is directly related to the area. A module is 1.63 square meters. EVA needs positive and negative encapsulation of the cell, and the area will be slightly smaller than the module area. Therefore, the EVA area used by a module is 1.6. ×2=3.2 square meters; Since there will be a certain area loss in the production process, the loss area produced by each module is between 0.2~03 square meters, so the area of EVA actually used for a 60-type standard module is 3.2 +0.2=3.4m2.
EVA is related to the area. The increase in power caused by advances in battery technology will not cause interference to EVA data. The amount of EVA used is constant. The difference in loss within the industry is very small. The amount of each type 60 standard component is about 3.4 square meters.
2, high productivity concentration
The EVA industry has a high degree of monopoly concentration. The leading company Foster has 48% of the global market share. Last year, shipments reached 577 million m2. The second largest company is Swik, which produced 156 million m2 last year. The third is Haiyouwei. Last year, the shipment volume was about 130 million m2. The market structure of the three companies was stable. The total shipment volume was 863 million m2 last year. If converted to a 60-type standard module, it corresponds to 8.63÷3.4 = 253.8 million pieces; According to last year, the average power of each type 60 module According to the 278W calculation, the total power consumption is 2.538 × 278 = 70.5 billion watts = 70.5 GW. The total module shipments after deducting thin film components globally reached 101 GW last year, and the market share of the above three companies is exactly 70%.
3, The production line can be opened and stopped flexibly, which can best reflect the market demand
The EVA production line has flexible start and stop, and it will not produce blindly in order to stockpile stocks during the off-season. The inventory factors will be less disturbed. The EVA has a high degree of monopoly concentration. We only need to track the production and sales data of the three companies to cover 70% of the industry's shipments. Moreover, the competitive landscape is stable. We only need to divide the three data by 0.7 to calculate the overall demand of the entire industry. We can quickly and easily have a clear understanding of the industry's cooling and heating.
Second, from the May EVA data to see the photovoltaic market demand
Take May as an example. According to the survey, we have roughly grasped the EVA manufacturers' production schedules in May as
Foster 47 million m2;
Swik 15 million m2;
Hai Youwei 12 million m2.
The three companies had a combined shipment of 74 million m2.
As the above three companies have a market share of 70% and the pattern is stable, we can infer that the global film shipments in May this year were 7400÷0.7=10571 million m2; due to the consumption of film area of 3.4 square meters per unit, Speculated that the global module production in May was 10571 ÷ 3.4 = 31.09 million.
According to the average power of the current single-block assembly is 278W,
In May, the total output of global PV modules was approximately 8.6 GW;
The output of domestic components accounts for about 70% of the world, so the output of domestic components in May is about 6GW;
Third, from the EVA data in May to determine the price of silicon material
According to the current cutting level, the 1kg single-crystal square bar has 62 pieces, the silicon loss of the square is 4%, and the current monocrystalline silicon chip has a global market share of 40%; the 1kg polycrystalline small square piece has a total of 57 pieces. The silicon loss is 6.5%, and the market share of polysilicon wafers is 60%. Combining the above data, we can obtain the silicon material demand of a single crystal module that encapsulates 60 silicon wafers as 60÷62×1.04=1.007kg; the same reason is more than one standard. Crystal module silicon material demand is 60÷58×1.065=1.102kg.
Superposition considering their respective market share (40% for single crystal, 60% for polycrystalline), the average silicon consumption of a component under the current technology level is 1.007×0.4+1.102×0.6=1.064kg. Combining the previous output data, we can It was learned that the expected demand for silicon material in May was 31.09 million × 1.064 kg = 33.079 million kg = 33,100 tons. The corresponding annualized demand was annualized demand of 3.31 × 12 = 39.72 million tons.
In addition, we also need to consider the demand for silicon materials for semiconductors. According to experience, the annual demand for silicon materials for semiconductors is more than 30,000 tons. Taking into account the leap-forward development of the semiconductor industry last year, the demand for silicon materials from semiconductors may be close to 40,000 tons. /year.
The sum of photovoltaic demand and semiconductor demand totaled about 437,200 tons.
Afterwards, we went to the database to fit the production capacity data and plotted the demand curve at 437,000 tons, to see which company has a higher marginal cost.
According to the above capacity cost distribution map, we can find that in order to meet the current global demand for silicon materials, our silicon material prices need to have enough incentives for high-cost production such as Korean OCI to start construction. Predict the future price trend, we Real-time tracking of production capacity data is needed. Looking into the third quarter of 2018, the supply and demand pattern will be very different. As the current global demand for components in the third quarter is currently only 21 GW, equivalent to only 7 GW per month, compared to the current decline of 30 %, corresponding to the annual production capacity of silicon material is 300,000 tons. And in the third quarter, the tolerance of inventory in every aspect of the industry will be reduced, further aggravating the contradiction between supply and demand. Therefore, for leading companies with large inventory in current photovoltaic industry, they should be vigilant this year. In the third quarter, the price of silicon material fell more than expected. The following figure shows the supply and demand of silicon material production cost in the third quarter of 2018:
What needs to be particularly reminded is that the industry structure in the third quarter may force the maintenance of Jiangxi Seville, Stellar Technologies, and Jiangsu GCL's outsourced power production to be overhauled before the balance between supply and demand of silicon material will be realized.
With the release of a large number of new silicon materials in production in the fourth quarter, we have to prepare for the long-term silicon material price below 100 yuan.
