The progress of the development of the small and medium sized OLED market depends largely on the adoption of OLED by the Apple iPhone. From the beginning of the year to the present, the supply chain has reported that the orders for Apple's mobile phone OLED panels have been reduced. This has produced a chain reaction in all aspects of the OLED supply chain. It is in the critical period of investing in small and medium sized OLEDs. Many production lines have already been voted on. Does Apple's sudden turn in the wind mean a dilemma for the development of small and medium size OLED industry in China?
Reproduce Apple's OLED Effect
Apple's message to reduce OLED panel orders did not receive a positive response from Apple's official, but multiple channels of information showed that the reduction in orders was directly related to the less than expected sales of iPhone X. Recently, the latest global smartphone tracking report released by Strategy Analytics showed that iPhone Since the official launch of the X in November 2017, Apple has shipped nearly 50 million units globally. As the new iPhone released in 2017, only the iPhone X is the first to use OLED panels, and Samsung is the only Apple mobile phone. OLED supplier, Qunzhi Consulting once stated to the outside world at the beginning of last year that the total demand for OLED panels for Apple's mobile phones was about 80 million in 2017. It can be seen that the sales volume of iPhone X is not as high as Apple’s original orders. According to the latest news of supply chain and analysts, Apple's new OLED screens purchased for the new iPhone 2018 are about 5,000-55 million, which is less than the 2017 orders.
According to foreign media reports, due to the low sales of the iPhone X, the operating rate of the Samsung OLED factory is insufficient. The Korean media “The Investor” website reported in January this year that the operating rate of the Samsung A3 plant has decreased by 10% compared with the same period of last year. Two months later The British "Financial Times" reported that the current operating rate of the Samsung OLED plant is only 50 to 56%.
"China Electronics News" reporter learned that Samsung's production of small and medium size OLED panel factories include A1, A2, A3 and A4. Currently, A3 factory provides mobile phone OLED screen to Apple, with a monthly production capacity of 135,000. Meanwhile, the outside world is rumored that Samsung is still Planning a new 6th-generation AMOLED production line A5, which was improved from the L7-1 LCD panel plant. The monthly production capacity was planned to be twice that of A3. However, due to the lower than expected OLED market, Samsung has suspended the investment progress of the A5 plant.
The Samsung A3 plant can produce 1.62 million pieces of AMOLED substrate glass (1850mm x 1500mm) if it is fully produced in one year, cutting 273 pieces of 6-inch full-screen mobile phone panels per piece of the economy. Calculated with Samsung's current 80% yield rate, the A3 factory will ship for the year. 6-inch full-screen OLED mobile phone panel 354 million, which is expected to Apple mobile phone can get 275 million supply. This is Apple's mobile phone is expected to sell more than 230 million units in total this year is more than enough, not to mention only about 1 Apple phone /3 is equipped with an OLED screen. The current situation is that due to the lack of sales of the iPhone X, the new order in 2018 is only about 55 million AMOLED panels. With a little calculation, we know that there is a serious excess capacity in the Samsung A3 plant, and the operating rate is natural. Will be insufficient.
In addition, it is rumored that the Samsung OLED investment plan is being postponed. According to the Korean media “ET News”, Samsung will invest a small part of the equipment at the end of this year, but the key equipment has not yet been put on the agenda. After the A4 plant was opened, it has been There is no clear production date.
Chinese companies have access to evaporation machines
Apple iPhone AMOLED orders reduced caused a chain reaction. In addition to Samsung's lack of operating rate, suspended investment, LGD also delayed the investment plan.
At the end of 2017, it was widely reported in the industry that LGD was prepared to delay the purchase of medium and small-sized AMOLED production equipment for Phase 3 of the E6 production line, including the organic material evaporation machine of Canon Tokki, Japan, which was last year's 'hard to buy'. LGD E6 production line 3 It is Apple's Queen's production line, which aims to disperse the risk of Samsung as the sole supplier of mobile phone OLED panels. LGD delays the purchase of Tokki vapor deposition machines. The industry has speculated that the demand for Apple's mobile phones has been reduced.
In the first few days, another news came out in the industry. Due to the problems of machine process and penalty, LGD and Canon Tokki failed to negotiate. Finally, LGD completed the procurement according to the original plan. However, in addition to the evaporation machine, the purchase of other machines was comprehensive. Suspension. According to the Korean media "ET News" report, Canon Tokki is planning to sell 10 sets of vapor deposition machines planned for shipment in 2018 to Chinese mainland manufacturers due to insufficient investment power in South Korea's OLED industry, except that another planned one has already been sold to LGD. Outside.
Li Yaqin, deputy general manager of Quzhi Consulting, told the “China Electronics News” reporter that most of the Canon Tokki evaporators were expected to be sold to Samsung this year. The rest of the company will be able to turn to Chinese manufacturers. However, Samsung’s expansion plans have been suspended or slowed down. The demand for equipment has decreased. This is an opportunity for the Chinese panel makers. This year's Tokki equipment is not as difficult to obtain as before. The popularity of Tokki equipment in China will become higher and higher in the future.
It is understood that the quality of vapor deposition machine is related to the yield of AMOLED panel. Tokki vapor deposition machine is recognized as the most mature production equipment for middle and small size AMOLED panel evaporation process. The annual production capacity in previous years is only 45 or 5 units. Slowly increased to 11 units in 2017. Samsung purchased Tokki evaporation machine exclusively 2 years ago, Canon Tokki expanded production in 2017, LGD, BOE, Sharp received a small amount of supply, while other panel makers are hard to find. .
In addition, the Samsung A3 plant uses Tokki vapor deposition machines. After years of experience in equipment deployment and production, AMOLED panel yields are said to have exceeded 80%. BOE Chengdu's six generations of small and medium-sized flexible OLED production lines (B7) use Tokki vapor deposition machines. Mass production last October. BOE Display and Sensors Group CEO Gao Wenbao revealed that after several months of ramping up the yield, by March this year, the OLED comprehensive yield has climbed to 65%.
It is worth noting that the key production equipment and materials of BOE B7 plant are mostly the same as those of Samsung A3 factory. Besides Tokki evaporation machine, there are key components of evaporation process metal mask FMM (directly related to the resolution of flexible OLED panel) , It is also the same as the manufacturer's product purchased from Samsung. From BOE’s follow-up line with Samsung, it can be seen that BOE will not take any risks in key equipment and materials. If there is a problem with OLED mass production, then it will be from the technology and personnel team. Finding the cause. This also confirms that in the high-risk AMOLED field, obtaining the most mature equipment with mass production experience is a strong guarantee against risk.
If Samsung's expansion plan is not suspended or slowed down due to the reduction of Apple's orders, Samsung will also receive multiple Tokki vapor deposition machines in the next few years to meet production needs. One Tokki vapor deposition machine can satisfy the sixth generation AMOLED production line. Monthly production capacity of 15,000 substrates. For example, the Samsung A5 factory plans to produce 180,000 to 270,000 wafers per month after three years. The A4 plant plans to produce 90,000 to 135,000 wafers per month after three years. Samsung will need to purchase at least three years in the next three years. 6 sets of Tokki vapor deposition machines. If Samsung plans to exercise priority purchase rights as planned and LGD follows up with the purchase of Tokki vapor deposition machine, then the chances of Chinese panel makers will be even smaller. Now that Samsung has suspended the A4, A5 expansion plan, China Panel makers have more opportunities.
In recent years, China has invested in BOE, Hefei Optoelectronics, Tianma, Guoxian Optoelectronics, Huaxing Optoelectronics, Xinli, Visionox, Rouyu and other 10 panel makers. OLED industry alliance data, currently the only volume production of BOE B7, Tianma Shanghai 5.5 generation line, Hehui photoelectric Shanghai 4.5 generation line, Guoxian photoelectric Kunshan 5.5 generation line. Wuhan Starlight 6th generation line under construction, BOE Mianyang 6 On behalf of the line, BOE Chongqing 6th Generation Line, Tianma Wuhan 6th Generation Line, Hehui Optoelectronics Shanghai 6th Generation Line, Gu'an Yungu 6th Generation Line and Rouyu Shenzhen 5.5th Generation Line. The rigid OLED screen's yield rate can reach over 80%. The yield of flexible OLED screens is the secret of various companies. The production capacity of Tianma Shanghai's 5.5th generation line is low, and the yield rate is not high. It is basically still in the exploration of mass production experience. Only BOE has announced the yield of B7. In so many mainland China panel factories, only BOE has purchased Tokki vapor deposition machine.
The increase in yield rate is related to the company's technology and personnel capabilities. On the other hand, it is also related to key equipment. Li Yaqin believes that the use of Tokki equipment will increase the competitiveness of domestic panel makers and narrow the gap with Samsung, including importing apples. The key customer supply chain within the company will also be of great help. If nothing else happens, Li Yaqin reveals that this year and in the coming years, BOE, Guoxian Optoelectronics and China Star Optoelectronics will all have access to Tokki vapor deposition machine.
Chinese panel makers still need to accumulate core productivity
Getting the Tokki Evaporator will help China's panel makers to increase the flexible OLED screen yield. However, with the reduction of Apple's mobile phone orders for OLED screens, the market outlook for mobile phone OLED panels is worrying. It is also necessary for Chinese panel makers to follow up actively. Flexible OLED panel investment?
First, smart phone adopts flexible OLED screen is the trend, its proportion will increase year by year. According to market research agency data, in the next few years, the demand for flexible products will continue to rise, and by 2022 will account for 68.9% of the market demand for small and medium size semiconductor products. According to market research agency Fuji Chimera Research, smart phone OLED panels and LCD panels will face an intersection in 2019, when the mobile phone OLED panel market size will exceed the LCD panel. There are forecast data show that the global shipment of smart in 2018 33% of handsets will adopt OLED screens, and the market penetration rate is expected to reach 54% by 2020. If we calculate the base of the global smartphone shipments of 1.5 billion units in 2017 and will not increase in the next few years, we will use global smartphones in 2018. The number of OLED screens will reach 495 million pieces. In 2018, the panel manufacturers of global energy-generating flexible OLED screens were only Samsung, LGD, BOE, and KOSIC. In the long run, the demand for flexible AMOLED screens will continue to rise.
Second, more manufacturers entering the mobile flexible OLED panel market will accelerate the popularity of OLED handsets. Currently, Samsung’s share of the handset OLED panel market exceeds 90%, followed by LGD’s share, which exceeds 5%. Samsung’s high monopoly Position, Samsung's flexible OLED small and medium size panel prices remain high. In Apple's mobile phone, an OLED screen costs twice as much as the LCD screen. Industry analysts believe that is due to the high price of Samsung OLED screen, so iPhone X is priced higher and its sales are not as expected. If there are more panel makers competing in the small and medium-sized flexible OLED screen market, once the scale of production goes up, the cost will soon drop, and the popularity of OLED mobile phones will also accelerate. Moreover, the source According to the reporter, the flex OLED screen produced by BOE B7 factory is 30% less than Samsung's.
Third, flexible OLED displays are the focus of global display industry competition. China's panel makers are actively entering the flexible OLED display market, compete with the world's leading companies, compete for greater market share, and enhance the right to speak in the industry. This is a new display industry in China. Large and strong must be laid down. As Apple orders decreased, Chinese manufacturers unexpectedly obtained more opportunities to purchase Tokki vapor deposition machines, which will greatly help improve the cell phone OLED panel yield.
However, the deputy secretary-general of the China OLED Industry Alliance and researcher of CCID think tank Yan Yi told the “China Electronics News” reporter that the yield rate was related to a number of process parameters in addition to the evaporation machine. Li Yaqin said that the OLED industry is a complex system. Sex engineering, in addition to the equipment itself, the corresponding deployment capabilities and engineering technologies are also very important. Samsung's high yield, rather than a thorough understanding of Tokki equipment, has been associated with major revisions and optimizations. The Chinese panel maker wants to be solid and robust. In addition to equipment, it also requires a lot of effort to research equipment and materials according to the characteristics of the production line and accumulate its own core productivity.