In April, the prices of chemicals in the market rebounded significantly. The continued upward movement of international oil prices brought strong cost support to the chemicals market. In addition, the supply and demand side also saw a relatively strong recovery. The chemical products market rebounded after a long absence. Looking ahead to May, the market will Amidst a narrow range of consolidation, although the cost support is still there, there is uncertainty in the terminal demand, so the market continues to pick up some pressure.
In April, the overall market for the chemical products market rose significantly in March. Among the 122 chemical products tested by Zhuochuang Information Technology, the price of products increased by 78, which was an increase of 48 compared with March; the price remained unchanged at 13 products. Compared with March, it was flat compared with 31 products that fell in price, which was a decrease of 50 compared with March. The price increase product increased significantly, and the price decrease product decreased significantly. This fully proves that the market of chemical products has rebounded obviously and is basically in line with Zhuo Chuang. Previous expectations.
Industrial chain: The price index rose significantly
From the perspective of the rise and fall of different industrial chain price indices, the prices of intermediates, methanol, and downstream aromatics and alcohols rose significantly, while the price indices of olefins, acid esters and phenolic ketones declined, but the margins were limited.
(1) Main reasons for price increase: Both supply and demand side and cost side have obviously recovered
In respect of intermediates, the price of Jiangsu maleic anhydride increased from 7,450 yuan/ton at the end of March to 8,850 yuan/ton at the end of April, or 18.79%; the price of aniline from north China rose from 11,000 yuan/ton at the end of March to 12,360 yuan/ton at the end of April. , 12.36% increase; Shandong propylene oxide prices from the end of March 10800 yuan / ton rose to the end of April 12,000 yuan / ton, an increase of 11.11%.
Supply reduction is the most important driving force for the rebound of intermediate product prices. For maleic anhydride, from the end of March, most maleic anhydride manufacturers have a shutdown maintenance plan, and the on-site supply of anhydride has been reduced significantly. In terms of aniline, around mid-April, the equipment was overhauled. The positive gradually reflected that Nanhua Company had insufficient load, overhauled a set of 30,000 tons of aniline equipment, Xinpu Chemical's set of 50,000 tons of aniline equipment overhauled for 11 days, Shanxi Tianji reduced load production to one set of production, and aniline enterprise stocks consumed to a low level. After that, the supply of goods in the market became tense and the price rose sharply. In the case of propylene oxide, the installations of mainstream plants in the north suffered an abnormally low load. The Zhenhai plant was shut down and repaired as scheduled in the middle of the month, and some major manufacturers in Shandong disclosed the maintenance plan for next month at the end of the month. The market was affected. Good incentive.
The reduction in supply has led to a significant increase in market sentiment, stimulating downstream demand, coupled with the May Day holiday at the end of the month, and the need for stocking downstream stocks, which has caused the market price to increase significantly.
In methanol and downstream, Shandong's methanol price rose from 2,885 yuan/ton at the end of March to 3,265 yuan/ton at the end of April, an increase of 13.17%; Shandong formaldehyde prices rose from 1,390 yuan/ton at the end of March to 1,525 yuan/ton at the end of April. , The increase of 9.71%; Shandong dimethyl ether prices from the end of March 3720 yuan / ton rose to the end of April 3950 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.18%.
The cost support is the main support factor for the rise in the price of methanol and downstream products. In terms of methanol, due to the emptiness of port paper products, the arbitrage window between the Mainland and the port is fully opened, the Mainland's holders and downstream suppliers actively replenish goods, and freight rates have increased. , Boosted sales rose sharply. The formaldehyde and dimethyl ether markets were supported by rising raw material methanol prices. The price focus followed the upward trend; however, formaldehyde and dimethyl ether companies started to maintain the stability of the load, and the lower reaches of high-price stocks resisted sentiment, so the price increase Less than raw material methanol.
(2) The main reason for falling prices: Unexpected increase in supply leads to sluggish market
In terms of olefins, Shandong propylene prices rose from 7575 yuan/ton at the end of March to 8155 yuan/ton at the end of April, or 7.66%; CFR ethylene prices in Northeast Asia fell from 1,385 yuan/ton at the end of March to 1,285 yuan/ton at the end of April. , a decrease of 7.22%.
Propylene and ethylene in diametrically opposite trends in April showed that unexpected factors in the market caused the market to deviate from normal conditions. The propylene market trend is basically in line with the trend, and the main reason for the sharp drop in ethylene prices is that many of the ocean-going sources of supply continued in late April. Influx into the Asian market led to a significant increase in supply, which in turn caused unexpected and significant impact on market conditions.
Specific products: PET prices jumped, TDI prices continued to fall sharply
The largest increase in price in April was PET, and the biggest drop was in TDI. In April, PET prices rose as much as 23.35%, and prices showed a jump. While TDI prices continued to fall, the price drop in March was as high as 14.56%. However, the decline in April was further expanded to 24.15%, and the price drop was not accidental.
First of all, the main reason for the price increase of PET is the tight supply caused by the improvement of demand. Since late March, the bidding volume of PET bottle chip downstream manufacturers has gradually increased, plus the export volume of polyester bottle companies in April-March. With a sharp increase, with a double increase in domestic and foreign demand, the stock of polyester bottle companies has dropped rapidly, and the market has shown a tight supply situation. Subsequently, the situation of tight goods has fully broken up. Some companies have closed up and prices have jumped. Enterprises Orders are as of June-July, even individual companies as of August, market conditions are good.
Looking again at TDI, supply and demand are weak as the main reason for the sharp drop in prices. As the price drop in March was already large, the inventory of TDI factories accumulated rapidly during the downtrend and pressure was exerted. During the month, although the TDI factory started exporting, the order quantity was still not effective. Reduced overall inventory pressure. Downstream demand performance was very weak during the month. There was accumulation of finished inventory in the midstream and downstream of the price drop channel, and the willingness to accept orders for raw materials was very restrained. Traders were actively shorting in the third week, dragging down prices quickly. In addition, the Middle East in April The number of imported TDI increased significantly, and the overall supply of the market was sufficient. The combination of supply and demand has led to a decline in TDI prices, and the decline has continued to widen.
May Market Outlook: The market may appear to consolidate within a narrow range.
In April, the center of gravity of international oil prices increased significantly. The support for the cost of chemical products in the market has been significantly increased, and it is also one of the important reasons for the improvement in the prices of chemicals. Looking forward to May, Zhuochuang expects that the overall international oil price will rise and fall, and the cost of chemicals will be low. It still exists, but it is necessary to pay close attention to the trend of the Iranian nuclear agreement on May 12. From the aspect of supply and demand, in May, it will still be the peak season for most chemical product installations. The reduction in supply will have some support for the market; but Zhuo Chuang believes that The important influencing factors still lie in the downstream demand side. Downstream construction and mentality are still the key factors. It is expected that this will continue to have a negative effect on most chemicals. In a comprehensive view, the chemical products market may be intertwined in May and chemical products are expected to be intertwined. The price volatility will gradually narrow, and the overall market may appear to consolidate within a narrow range.