In the field of home appliances, no one wants to be hotter than the air-conditioner manufacturers and it will take a long time for high-temperature, sweltering and humid weather. For so many years, the domestic air-conditioning market seems to have a rule that there is no problem that high-temperature weather cannot solve. If so, Then it will heat again. This is fully confirmed in 2016 and 2017.
However, there is another phenomenon that has not been broken in the air-conditioning industry. In the past three decades, the domestic market has never experienced a three-year boom in the market. It seems that at least until 2018. It was not long before the author. In the retail situation where many companies are communicating with the difficulties in the domestic market, they all hope that the weather can quickly warm up. It is only in the author's opinion that the immediate air-conditioning market may have entered a situation where even high-temperature, humid and humid climate is difficult to sustain. The stage of the blowout quotes.
Endogenous demand resources are scarce
After entering 2018, the domestic air-conditioning market seems to cool down rapidly. From the information feedback from many air-conditioning manufacturers to the author, most companies’ terminal retail sales have failed to meet expectations, and many have even experienced significant declines. At the same time, the trend of the engineering machine market is also not satisfactory, facing the consumer's terminal level is under tremendous pressure.
The continuous high growth in the domestic market over the past two years has amplified the expectations of manufacturers for this year's market, especially the phenomenon of long-term stock-outs last year, which has provided a misleading signal to the air-conditioning industry, leading air-conditioning manufacturers to this year. The confidence of the market has collectively escalated. In the past six months, the author has participated in dealer conferences of many air-conditioning companies. Almost every conference company will persuade dealers not to repeat the mistake of not selling goods last year.
However, the market is unlikely to maintain a long-term high growth trend. Although many data monitoring agencies indicate that the terminal retail sales in the domestic market in 2016 and 2017 are between 52 million units and 5,500 units, if the amount of engineering equipment is accounted for In that case, the amount of wall-mounted air-conditioning products for the two years reached about 130 million sets. After the concentrated release of demand resources in the past two years, fresh resources in the domestic sales market have been extremely scarce, and it is not enough to support the continuous emergence of high-growth prices.
The replacement conference became the dominant force in the development of the market in the later period. Under this demand model, the user’s awareness of products and requirements have been improved, and traditional methods and methods have gradually become ineffective. Looking at the evolution of the current domestic market , Endogenous demand resources may become a normal phenomenon of industrial development in the short term.
Short-term corporate behavior leads to a surge in inventory
Before May 2016, the air-conditioning industry at that time had also experienced a record high inventory level, which forced the company to change the production and sales model, especially when the mobile Internet has formed large-scale penetration of markets, industries, and users. , Making full use of Internet thinking, shortening the distance between users and enterprises, signing contracts with terminals, and being user-oriented, and promoting collective change in the business model of the air-conditioning industry.
One of the direct results of this change was that when the blowouts occurred during the peak seasons of 2016 and 2017, a large number of companies had a long period of time out of stock due to insufficient inventory. As a result, they staged a Market demand for sellers in short supply. The emergence of demand opportunities and not enough product supply itself has directed the entire industry's capacity expansion trend last year.
After entering the year of 2018, the release of huge production capacity, avoiding the emergence of no-goods supply, and other thoughts dominated the traditional form of large-distribution and large-distribution distribution mode, which has promoted another increase in shipments in the domestic market this year. , Many small and medium-sized brands have realized their own scale production capabilities. They all regard the pressing of goods as a major survival and development method. In particular, some brands have achieved large-scale shipments through aggressive pricing methods, but only product quality. Stability is questionable.
This year, the entire air-conditioning industry has seen a large area of short-term behavior. In order to compete for channel resources, expand its own shipments, lower shipping prices, and introduce highly stimulating marketing policies, it has become a collective initiative of many brands. Many companies even It does not take into account the consequences of the surge in channel inventory brought about by the high growth of shipments. At the moment, inventory in the domestic market once again set a new high in the same period of history. In addition to the number of channels, the scale itself is growing, and many air-conditioning brands are shipping The short-term demand for growth also drove up inventory.
Demand substitution effect is further intensified
In the domestic air-conditioning market, while the demand for end-users is sluggish, the trend of the home central air-conditioning market, represented by multi-connections and air ducts, is also deteriorating. In the past few years, home central air-conditioning has been in a sustained high-speed growth. At the stage, this type of product forms a clear alternative to home air conditioning.
On the one hand, consumer users are increasingly demanding the overall aesthetics of the home environment, and purchasing power is also gradually increasing. In particular, the increase in house prices has brought about an increase in space costs, which has enabled a reduction in living space and a higher level of home integration. The sales of home central air-conditioning products are rapidly increasing; on the other hand, the investment in technology research and development, product development, and marketing of the home central air-conditioning products are expanding, and these products are used as late-stage developments. Important direction. Moreover, the market share of refined decoration houses has increased, which has also led to the growth of home central air-conditioning production and sales.
More importantly, compared with home air conditioners, the trend of central air-conditioning in homes appears to be more favorable and the space in the later period is huge. The fluctuations in the market this year are only adjustments in the short term. The higher the quality of life of consumers, the more they can promote The proportion of home central air-conditioning products has increased. This has been reflected in the past few years in Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Jiangsu.
In addition, the impact of the whole machine represented by the mobile system on household air conditioners and the impact of various small-scale heating equipment on domestic heating functions is spreading at an unprecedented rate in the domestic market. What's more, air conditioners in the domestic market as a whole Demand is in a period of pressure in the short term. The lack of external opportunities and limited endogenous resources will intensify the contradiction between supply and demand.
Now, the entire air-conditioning industry is eagerly awaiting the emergence of high-temperature, sweltering wet weather. However, even if there are favorable climatic conditions, the retail sales of home air-conditioning products will not necessarily increase compared with the peak season of the past two years.
