For those of me who have worked in the IT industry for more than 40 years as manufacturers, users, and reporters, for the current Chinese core-cores, they are also very anxious to think that this is the most dangerous moment for the Chinese IT industry, even though I wrote a week ago. After an article entitled “Cycles of Disordered Interrogation in Time and Space” received positive support from many readers and some people's refutation, I still feel that many things haven’t been said. After an interview last week, reading the data, and thinking repeatedly, I feel myself It is responsible to review Chinese core students from scratch.
The following content was discussed with Liu Chuanzhi from ten aspects:
1, when you have a production license to do PC
2, a motherboard can do brand
3, there is a brand motherboard can be core
4, Global integration vertical division of labor, no division of labor to the core
5, the core must have quality only have the price
6, the industry is right after the establishment of the ecological core
7, now there is a huge domestic market to support the core
8, three reasons for private enterprises to do core
9, determine the technical route
10, BAT core but it will not do the whole machine
The first self brand can carry the core
I especially admire that 'history is always the background of news'. Before a person takes any conclusion of any event, if there is no explanation of the historical background, the whole incident will become irrelevant.
PC was born in lBM Company in 1981. In the early period of reform and opening up in the late 1980s, it entered China. At that time, it was a planned economy. Our national team, Great Wall Group, was China's largest and most powerful computer company. Lenovo and its non-electronic department did not manage the company. The National Computer Production License, led by Liu Chuanzhi (the early new technology development company called the Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences) is impossible to do computer, only to do Hanka and the motherboard.
At the time, the world’s largest computer show was called comdex. There was no Chinese manufacturer’s participation in the show until the end of the 1980s. At the comdex exhibition in Las Vegas in 1989, a Chinese industry leader discovered Lenovo in a corner. The main board came up to ask: Why did you not hear about you in the domestic industry? The staff at the booth only answered the questions truthfully. After returning home, they began to set up production licenses for Lenovo. Lenovo branded computers in the early 1990s.
The United States was able to produce giant chips and operating system companies such as Intel and Microsoft because it was supported by world computer brands such as Compaq, Hewlett Packard, and Dell.
Whole machine agent can raise the motherboard
To do the brand first to do the motherboard, can do the main board is to lose money, what to raise the motherboard? To AST (then the Chinese name was Hong Zhi) computer when the agent can make money raising the motherboard, so, Lenovo to the AST as an agent for many years, The profits of the first three years were used to subsidize self-branded motherboards, and it was the basis for self-branding.
So the logic is this: To produce a core, there must be tens of millions of self-branded computers to bear.
Self-branded computers must have their own motherboards. By 2000, Lenovo and Tongfang, Ziguang, and other self-branded computers had added up to 15.9 million units. At that time Lenovo occupied 30% of the market, with an annual output of about 5 to 6 million units. Knowing that they can't support their own chip industry at all, because a semiconductor integrated circuit must have a box opening rate of tens of millions of chips, only the manufacturers can afford the price. Moreover, the price of a production line has risen to 2 billion US dollars at the time.
By 2001, the total revenue of Lenovo Group was only HK$19.2 billion, and the net profit was only HK$1.026 billion. In other words, only one-sixteenth of the production line was invested (at the time, US$1 and HK$8). Money, this is not the purchase of technology patent fees, if you do not buy technology patents, but also to pay a few million yuan in research and development costs.
Any entrepreneur who is not a prodigal son will not be so brave. This is not patriotism but a disaster.
Not only will Lenovo not do this, but also the purple, the same companies and companies around the world will not do that.
Photographed after the interview and photo after the interview
Logically speaking, there should be companies that can support the domestic computer industry. However, the reality is that no vertical chip manufacturers have emerged to support domestic computer manufacturers.
Why? Because no one can resist the tide of global economic integration, China is, China's computer industry is even more.
If scientists or academicians are only able to understand the technological development and do not understand the ecological development of the industrial sector, then people who do not understand technology and do not understand the ecological development of the industrial sector can only talk nonsense.
Any industry has its own ecology, especially in the face of the global economic integration tide, any small company closed to self-sufficiency will be finished.
For example, in the automotive industry, you can't make an engine for a complete vehicle. You can't compete for a price if you don't have a lot of engines. You can't compete for a price if you don't have a lot of engines. For example, if you do furniture, you can't do a wood business, or the wood business won't survive.
With regard to industrial ecology, many large super-world companies have made mistakes so far. Google is a big company. On August 25, 2012, it bought Motor Mobile for US$12.5 billion and sold it for US$2.9 billion a year and four months later. To Lenovo, Microsoft was smart enough to buy Nokia for $7.2 billion in 2014. The former lost $9.6 billion and the latter lost $7.2 billion. Of course, it may have some patents. One will be operating as an operating system. What is the company's mobile phone manufacturers buy ah, this is not the purpose of buying the brand in order to destroy this brand.
After all, the vertical division of labor must be done to make it bigger. But Liu Chuanzhi does not quite agree with my argument. He thinks that if a company holds a large enough share of the market, it can do a vertical division of labor and become horizontally closed, but I think if one When the manufacturer occupies a large market, the anti-monopoly law will intervene. If it does not interfere, then the market for this product will lose its vitality.
Someone took Apple's closed behavior as an example. I know that Apple's chips also use Intel, Qualcomm's, and I don't want Apple's APP to achieve the world's largest application software open system.
China's core must be born in private enterprises
Said so many times of the core, capital, ecology, background, said the current problem, now if the Chinese manufacturers do not have a core how to do, don't tell me that the spirit of the two bombs and one star will be successful In that case, I say that the way to really use that momentum will never succeed, because two bombs and one star do not need to be ecological. It is a national security chip. The user has only one -‐ is our country.
Godson Niu, but Godson is only military, if it is affordable for civil use, is it compatible with Windows?
Why do we say that the future Chinese core must be born in private enterprises? Liu Chuanzhi said there are three:
First, the leadership of private enterprises is stable. Leaders will not be adjusted within a few years. Operators are not fixed. It is not a thing of one or two years to do core-core. Only when the company has a truly fixed owner will it plan and invest for long-term development. ;
The second is that private enterprises run their businesses in accordance with the market rules, and they will definitely not buy or sell buyers.
Third, we can absorb capital operations such as angels, wind capital investment, and China's large Internet user market support. Such a large-scale user demand ecosystem can certainly cultivate the Chinese core.
I was persuaded by him!
About the development of technical routes
If scientists’ academicians are the beginning, then entrepreneurs and markets are all indispensable, and those who lack them are not the only ones who have no way to stop. They are headless monsters. In the past, we attached great importance to R&D. We did not attach importance to the market, ecology and entrepreneurs. R & D results can only be abandoned halfway, there is no word at all to upgrade, this is why? Because there is no entrepreneur to follow up.
Liu Chuanzhi thinks that the country should respect entrepreneurs just as it respects science.
In other words, there are no entrepreneurs to complete the achievements of the scientists. The results of the scientists have become negative for the society and for humans, because at least it does not cost huge money to develop it.
I would like to say one more thing. I say entrepreneurs are different from businessmen. The difference is that entrepreneurs have a sense of social responsibility.
Returning to the topic of Health Core, it seems to me that at present we should first formulate the technical route of China's core as soon as possible. The X86 will definitely not work, because the Moore's Law carried on silicon media is nearing its end. The problem of increasing power consumption will intensify. Despite the establishment of the Enron China company, the ARM patent fee is too high. In addition, it is said that it is technically the primary RSIC system more than 30 years ago.
In recent years, the open-source RiCS-V chip has been introduced with a good opportunity. Should our experts prove that it is feasible? If we use an open source operating system to create a China-router, software-exporting, and hundreds of billions of industrial chains, why not? Using open source to make its own intellectual property rights for RF, DSP, Dram, CPU and other semiconductor integrated circuit chips?
In addition, the chip industry is originally designed to separate, design, manufacture, package, and test the industry. Even if it is to master the first and second steps of the chip industry, of course, the last successful guarantee requires the follow-up of entrepreneurs, enterprises, and capital. Otherwise, it is halfway. .
How to BAT chip
When it comes to private companies, Chinese people first think of BAT. They are all big players in private companies. They can get money from the stock market, and they are vertical industries that have nothing to do with the machine manufacturing industry. They are indeed acting. Ali has developed a neuron chip, and it seems to be reliable. I also believe that Tencent, Baidu, Jingdong have similar plans and actions.
The only thing I worry now is that they are users themselves. Once a chip is made to be a complete machine, once you make a whole device like Alibaba PC, Alibaba Mobile Phone, Alibaba Router, etc., its chips can no longer be sold to other PC manufacturers. Manufacturers will not be able to buy Ali chips anymore, and will return to violation of vertical ecology.
In fact, it has always been Ali's dream to be a mobile terminal. It is said that a special department was set up for the mobile operating system. It has already invested more than ten billion yuan. Although no mobile phone was seen, Ali did not give up.
Another example is that not only Ali, BAT has its own server, these white server has a very nice name, called custom server, this may be the future Ali core or Baidu core, Tencent core, Jingdong core carrier.
Conclusion:
After writing so much, I still feel that I haven’t yet done what I said. If I say something wrong about the core of the Chinese Health Core, don’t give me a hat first. I can refute me with facts, data, and space conditions, as I say. Why don't you listen to it?