From April 25th to 27th, the highly-recognized 2018 China Automobile Forum was held in Beijing. The theme of this forum is 'New Era, New Trends, New Strategies - Focus on High-Quality Development in the Automotive Industry'. This forum was closed. Gate Summit, Conference Forum, Nine Thematic Forums, and Three Contemporaneous Activities. In the "Post-Subsidy Era, New Energy and Energy Vehicle Development Bottlenecks and Solutions" theme forum held on the afternoon of April 26, Korea Automotive Industry Association executive Tae - Nyen Kim Kim Tae-Jae gave a wonderful speech titled 'Korean Electric Motorized Development Strategies and Trends'. The following is a speech record:
Korean Automobile Industry Association Executive Tae-Nyen Kim Kim Tae-Nyeon
Hello everyone. Today we talk about Korea's automotive electric strategy and some of our government policies, how to support the development of our suppliers in this field.
Yesterday and this morning we were talking about the issue of electrification. Of course, we also included new issues of interconnection, issues of intellectual development, and a series of new trends in this field.
We are also emphasizing these keywords. These are related to the direction we have established for automation and environment-friendly cars. We now include internal combustion engines and switch to the direction of battery-powered electric vehicles. This is why we now talk about some of the environment. The problem, because we know that fossil fuels are now facing shortages, so we must consider the sustainable development of resources and eco-friendly development path.
So today I mainly talk about five aspects.
The first one is to compare the eco-friendliness issues according to each powertrain. The second talks about the strategies of hybrid vehicles, including electric vehicles and plug-in electric vehicles, and finally talks about the development roadmap in Korea.
First, talk about the powertrain. There are four dimensions: environment, energy security, technical feasibility, and economic feasibility.
The four dimensions will include the development trend of our forecast powertrain in this industry. When we look specifically at the results of some of our environmental agencies' predictions, we will find that our predictions for powertrains are very different and are based on different The situation is predicted, we can see that the proportion of different powertrains is different in every institution.
Therefore, based on the use of different scenarios like ours, it will be difficult to predict where the future development technology will take. We can now see that taking into account the situation of electric vehicles, we are based on different scenarios for different 2050 electric vehicles. Types of vehicles are predicted and it is very necessary to deal with these uncertainties so that they can be better developed.
In this chart, you can see that there are some paradoxes in our forecast. It is because we made some predictive mistakes. In 2004, our global auto forecast report actually told us the trend of development projects in the car in the future in 2015. Year 2004 found that the 2004 forecast was incorrect. This tells us that there are uncertainties in the forecast. The current market demand has changed, especially for our automotive industry.
Therefore, this kind of investment that we have embraced actually brings us some budget waste. Here we can see the cost analysis of our CO2 emission reduction, so we can see that different electric vehicles are not the same if they want to reduce the cost of carbon dioxide. , For every 1% of carbon dioxide reduction in the plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles, it will cost US$200. For our hybrid electric vehicles, every 1% reduction in CO2 emissions will cost US$30.
This means that we have to consider the investment in R&D and the roadmap for technology development in order to achieve competitiveness. Here we can see the decline in battery costs and the future development trend. According to our current development in the battery industry. Recently, the cost of our lithium battery is 200 US dollars per kilometer, so we have to further develop lithium batteries, because our current lithium ion battery has limitations. We can see this page is for the powertrain For comparison, here we compare some of the parameters we just mentioned.
So if we take into account the environmental benefits and economic feasibility, we can see that the economy of the proportion of internal combustion engines is the largest, and the economy of hybrid cars is currently relatively small. So this picture is based on the four dimensions of different power. Into comparison.
Of course, these comparisons exclude the factors of government subsidies. Therefore, we must also consider that the actual government subsidies may still vary. We consider the advantages and disadvantages of different powertrains. For internal combustion engines, we You can see there are many advantages.
For example, it can have a very long driving distance, mature technology, and price advantages. It is easy to refuel and have the potential for R&D, but there are also many disadvantages. For example, carbon dioxide emissions are relatively high, nitrogen emissions are relatively high, and other The powertrain also has its own advantages and disadvantages.
Let's talk about the strategies and features of Korean hybrid electric vehicles. Here we can see that Korean auto manufacturers now produce and supply more than 83,000 hybrid-type vehicles. We can see the situation last year.
We can see the proportion of EVs. On the left is the development trend of plug-in hybrid vehicles in the right side of hybrid vehicles. We can see that the current hybrid vehicles are higher than the output of plug-in hybrid vehicles. The required technology is shown. First of all, the classification of the hybrid vehicle is based on the type of mixture. The right side is the fuel efficiency problem. For the light mixing case, there is no fuel efficiency. When the fuel is mixed, the fuel efficiency is 10% to 20%. The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle has an efficiency as high as 40% to 65%. Here we see the development direction of the hybrid vehicle, which can improve the efficiency. Our technology also needs To further mature, on the other hand to reduce costs, have a competitive advantage in the global price.
The third aspect is the supply and strategy of electric vehicles. That is, we can see that EVs have obvious advantages. Global warming requires less carbon dioxide emissions. Through the development and application of electric vehicles, green demand intelligence will be realized. The development of the grid has a new energy composition.
Here we can also see that some of the other advantages of our electric vehicles are that they will be more flexible in the design and manufacturing process. In South Korea we can see the current status and development goals of EV supply. Our government also supports electric vehicles. The development of the rapid charging station and the establishment of its supply target. First of all, we have established 3,000 charging stations for the construction of the charging station. The right side shows the growth trend of our charging stations, so we can see that the growth rate in 2017 is very high. Fast, a total of 25,108.
The next thing I want to share with you is the current supply and strategy for Korean fuel cell electric vehicles. We have already mass-produced in South Korea. We have the next-generation FCEV technology. We are rapidly advancing in research and development to develop new fuel cells. Reserves and storage technology.
Of course, our government will also provide us with subsidies for more than 170 hybrid electric vehicles to support the fact that we can now develop FCEVs faster. Now we can see that because we supply 170 electric cars in the domestic market, the local Eighty-five percent of the government and workers’ organizations are going to export, South Korea accounts for 13% of the market, Japan accounts for more than 80%, and we can predict that in the near future we will have rapid development. The relatively high price, the relatively small number of charging stations restricts its rapid development, and its price we believe will drop to 35 million won in 2030.
Here our government will in fact also formulate a series of stimulus measures, including that we will actually reduce the vehicle price to 50 million won by 2020. The government’s procurement incentives, driving incentives, and eco-car incentives will work together .
It can also be seen here that the deployment of HIS is the establishment of light fuel subsidy stations. In 2017, 11 such sites have been built, and 12 will be added this year, aiming at a site with more than 100 supplies. Established, the South Korean government is considering further and comprehensively constructing such supply stations. By the year 2025, there will be more than 200, most of which will be built near the expressway. Of course, we will also include 8,600 light fuel refueling stations in 2040. Build it up.
The fifth is the development of eco-friendly electric vehicles. In South Korea, the development of environmentally-friendly models is strongly encouraged. There are different vehicle stimuli. The first thing to see is that hybrid electric vehicles first have government subsidies. For hybrid electric vehicles, there will be no start next year. In the further subsidy, so there will be a long way to go for hybrid electric vehicles.
So for a plug-in hybrid electric car, it costs 5 million won, and for every excise tax it will decrease a lot, and it will reduce 1.3 million won, including the reduction of our after-sales tax.
We can see that we have a central government subsidy for EVs in terms of electric vehicles. The central government's subsidies will be as high as 12 million won, depending on the driving distance of our electric vehicles, and of course, the subsidy of the local provincial government is 4.4 million yuan. Between 11 million won.
In this respect we also see some discounts, including discounts such as license plates, discounts on fast charging charges, 50% off on electric vehicle licences and highway tolls.
There are actually many preferential policies for the fuel cell vehicles. The central government's subsidies are as high as 22.5 million won. Subsidies for local governments are between 1,000 and 12.5 million won. Of course, this aspect also includes personal consumption tax relief. , And the reduction of purchase tax.
Finally, the chart shows the long-term roadmap for developing environmentally friendly vehicles in South Korea. The Korean government is also now developing long-term plans to support the development of 1.5 million eco-friendly vehicles. Here is the development data for 2020.
Of course, we can see here that the proportion of hybrid vehicles is relatively large. The number of electric vehicles for fuel is relatively small. This is a further increase in numbers that can be seen by 2022. Our charging stations of this type in 2020 That is, the number of fast charging stations will greatly increase, and our government will provide more than 10,000 fast charging stations, which is the figure to 2020.
Then the light fuel supply station will reach more than 300 in 2022. Taking into account the convenience of driving, we will further consider increasing the number of charging stations for electric vehicles, so we will have a variety of charging equipment, not only There are electrified electric cars, also including LPG, we say that compressed natural gas includes hydraulic, oil supply stations for petroleum vehicles.
Thank you very much for listening.