National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey Center
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing
I. Operation of China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
In April 2018, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.4%, which was slightly lower than the 0.1% in the previous month, and the manufacturing industry continued to maintain a steady growth trend.
In terms of the size of the company, the PMI of large-sized companies is 52.0%, which is 0.4 percentage point lower than that of the previous month, and it stays in the expansion range. The PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises is 50.7% and 50.3%, respectively, 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month. The boom interval.
From the classification index, among the five sub-indexes that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, and supplier delivery time index are above the critical point, and the raw material inventory index and the employee index are below the critical point.
The production index was 53.1%, which was unchanged from last month. It is still above the critical point, indicating that the manufacturing industry has maintained a steady expansion.
The new order index was 52.9%, which was 0.4 percentage point lower than last month but still above the critical point, indicating that the manufacturing market demand continues to grow and the growth rate has slowed down.
The inventory index of raw materials was 49.5%, down 0.1% from the previous month, which was below the critical point, indicating that the inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry continued to decrease.
The employee index was 49.0%, which was a slight decrease of 0.1% from last month. It was below the critical point, indicating that the number of workers in the manufacturing industry has declined.
The supplier's delivery time index was 50.2%, which was 0.1 percentage point higher than last month. It was above the critical point, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing material suppliers continued to accelerate.
Table 1 China's manufacturing PMI and composition index (seasonally adjusted)
| Unit: % | ||||||
| PMI | ||||||
| produce | new order | Raw materials in stock | Employees | Supplier delivery time | ||
| April 2017 | 51.2 | 53.8 | 52.3 | 48.3 | 49.2 | 50.5 |
| May 2017 | 51.2 | 53.4 | 52.3 | 48.5 | 49.4 | 50.2 |
| June 2017 | 51.7 | 54.4 | 53.1 | 48.6 | 49.0 | 49.9 |
| July 2017 | 51.4 | 53.5 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.2 | 50.1 |
| August 2017 | 51.7 | 54.1 | 53.1 | 48.3 | 49.1 | 49.3 |
| September 2017 | 52.4 | 54.7 | 54.8 | 48.9 | 49.0 | 49.3 |
| October 2017 | 51.6 | 53.4 | 52.9 | 48.6 | 49.0 | 48.7 |
| November 2017 | 51.8 | 54.3 | 53.6 | 48.4 | 48.8 | 49.5 |
| December 2017 | 51.6 | 54.0 | 53.4 | 48.0 | 48.5 | 49.3 |
| January 2018 | 51.3 | 53.5 | 52.6 | 48.8 | 48.3 | 49.2 |
| February 2018 | 50.3 | 50.7 | 51.0 | 49.3 | 48.1 | 48.4 |
| March 2018 | 51.5 | 53.1 | 53.3 | 49.6 | 49.1 | 50.1 |
| April 2018 | 51.4 | 53.1 | 52.9 | 49.5 | 49.0 | 50.2 |
Table 2 Other relevant indicators of China's manufacturing PMI (seasonally adjusted)
| Unit: % | ||||||||
| New export Orders | import | Purchase quantity | The main raw material purchase price | Factory price | Finished product in stock | In hand Orders | Expected production and business activities | |
| April 2017 | 50.6 | 50.2 | 51.9 | 51.8 | 48.7 | 48.2 | 45.0 | 56.6 |
| May 2017 | 50.7 | 50.0 | 51.5 | 49.5 | 47.6 | 46.6 | 45.4 | 56.8 |
| June 2017 | 52.0 | 51.2 | 52.5 | 50.4 | 49.1 | 46.3 | 47.2 | 58.7 |
| July 2017 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 52.7 | 57.9 | 52.7 | 46.1 | 46.3 | 59.1 |
| August 2017 | 50.4 | 51.4 | 52.9 | 65.3 | 57.4 | 45.5 | 46.1 | 59.5 |
| September 2017 | 51.3 | 51.1 | 53.8 | 68.4 | 59.4 | 44.2 | 47.4 | 59.4 |
| October 2017 | 50.1 | 50.3 | 53.2 | 63.4 | 55.2 | 46.1 | 45.6 | 57.0 |
| November 2017 | 50.8 | 51.0 | 53.5 | 59.8 | 53.8 | 46.1 | 46.6 | 57.9 |
| December 2017 | 51.9 | 51.2 | 53.6 | 62.2 | 54.4 | 45.8 | 46.3 | 58.7 |
| January 2018 | 49.5 | 50.4 | 52.9 | 59.7 | 51.8 | 47.0 | 45.3 | 56.8 |
| February 2018 | 49.0 | 49.8 | 50.8 | 53.4 | 49.2 | 46.7 | 44.9 | 58.2 |
| March 2018 | 51.3 | 51.3 | 53.0 | 53.4 | 48.9 | 47.3 | 46.0 | 58.7 |
| April 2018 | 50.7 | 50.2 | 52.6 | 53.0 | 50.2 | 47.2 | 46.2 | 58.4 |
II. Operation of China's Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
In April 2018, China's non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.8%, up 0.2% from the previous month, and the non-manufacturing industry continued to expand.
In terms of different industries, the service business activity index for the service industry was 53.8%, up by 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, and the service industry showed a stable development trend. From the industry perspective, the air transport industry, the postal express delivery industry, the accommodation industry, and telecommunications The industrial and commercial activity index of radio and television and satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services are all located at a high level of over 60.0%, maintaining a momentum of rapid expansion. The catering and real estate business activity index continues to be below the critical point, total business volume The index of business activity in the construction industry was 60.6%, a slight decrease of 0.1% from the previous month. The construction industry continued its rapid growth.
The new orders index was 51.1%, which was a 1.0 percentage point increase from the previous month. It continued to be above the critical point, indicating that the demand growth in the non-manufacturing market has accelerated. From the industry perspective, the new order index for the service industry was 50.3%, compared with the previous month. It rose 0.5% to rise above the critical point. The new order index for the construction industry was 55.6%, up 3.6 percentage points from the previous month and above the critical point.
The price index of input products was 52.7%, which was 2.8 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, which was higher than the critical point. This indicates that the overall level of input prices for non-manufacturing companies' operating activities has increased. From the perspective of industry, the input price index for service industries This was 52.4%, up 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry's input price index was 54.6%, up 6.6 percentage points from the previous month.
The sales price index was 50.6%, which was a 1.3 percentage point increase from the previous month. It returned above the critical point, indicating that the overall level of non-manufacturing sales prices has picked up. From a sector perspective, the service industry sales price index was 50.6%, compared with the previous month. It increased by 1.7 percentage points. The construction industry sales price index was 51.0%, which was a 0.9 percentage point decrease from the previous month.
The employee index was 49.0%, which was a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, which was lower than the critical point. From the perspective of the industry, the service industry employee index was 48.3%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry employment index was 53.2%. It increased by 0.6% from the previous month.
The business activity expectation index was 61.5%, which was a 0.4% increase from the previous month. It continued to be at a high level. In terms of industries, the service industry business activity expectation index was 60.6%, which was a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month. Construction industry business activity expected index It was 66.3%, a slight decrease of 0.4% from the previous month.
Table 3 China's major non-manufacturing industry index (seasonally adjusted)
| Unit: % | ||||||
| Business activities | new order | Input products price | selling price | Employees | Business Activity expected | |
| April 2017 | 54.0 | 50.5 | 51.7 | 50.2 | 49.5 | 59.7 |
| May 2017 | 54.5 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 48.8 | 49.0 | 60.2 |
| June 2017 | 54.9 | 51.4 | 51.2 | 49.3 | 49.6 | 61.1 |
| July 2017 | 54.5 | 51.1 | 53.1 | 50.9 | 49.5 | 61.1 |
| August 2017 | 53.4 | 50.9 | 54.4 | 51.5 | 49.5 | 61.0 |
| September 2017 | 55.4 | 52.3 | 56.1 | 51.7 | 49.7 | 61.7 |
| October 2017 | 54.3 | 51.1 | 54.3 | 51.6 | 49.4 | 60.6 |
| November 2017 | 54.8 | 51.8 | 56.2 | 52.8 | 49.2 | 61.6 |
| December 2017 | 55.0 | 52.0 | 54.8 | 52.6 | 49.3 | 60.9 |
| January 2018 | 55.3 | 51.9 | 53.9 | 52.6 | 49.4 | 61.7 |
| February 2018 | 54.4 | 50.5 | 53.2 | 49.9 | 49.6 | 61.2 |
| March 2018 | 54.6 | 50.1 | 49.9 | 49.3 | 49.2 | 61.1 |
| April 2018 | 54.8 | 51.1 | 52.7 | 50.6 | 49.0 | 61.5 |
Table 4 Other non-manufacturing categories in China (adjusted seasonally)
| Unit: % | ||||
| New export orders | In-hand order | stock | Supplier delivery time | |
| April 2017 | 47.1 | 44.0 | 46.2 | 52.0 |
| May 2017 | 48.5 | 43.7 | 46.1 | 51.8 |
| June 2017 | 49.8 | 44.6 | 45.9 | 51.8 |
| July 2017 | 52.1 | 43.9 | 45.9 | 51.7 |
| August 2017 | 49.0 | 44.0 | 45.5 | 51.1 |
| September 2017 | 49.7 | 44.2 | 47.0 | 51.6 |
| October 2017 | 50.7 | 43.9 | 46.4 | 51.1 |
| November 2017 | 50.9 | 44.1 | 46.5 | 51.6 |
| December 2017 | 51.5 | 43.8 | 46.3 | 51.3 |
| January 2018 | 50.1 | 44.4 | 46.5 | 51.3 |
| February 2018 | 45.9 | 43.8 | 47.6 | 50.7 |
| March 2018 | 50.4 | 44.3 | 46.2 | 51.6 |
| April 2018 | 50.0 | 44.4 | 46.7 | 51.5 |
III. Operation of China's comprehensive PMI output index
In April 2018, the comprehensive PMI output index was 54.1%, which was higher than that of the previous month by 0.1 percentage points. It was above the critical point, indicating that the production and business activities of Chinese enterprises have generally maintained a steady and rapid expansion.
Notes
1. Explanation of major indicators
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index compiled through the monthly summary of the company's purchasing managers' monthly survey results. It covers all aspects of corporate procurement, production, and circulation, including manufacturing and non-manufacturing, and is international. One of the common leading indicators for monitoring macroeconomic trends has a strong forecast and early warning effect. The integrated PMI output index reflects the changes in output of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing) in the current PMI indicator system. Comprehensive index. PMI usually takes 50% as the demarcation point of economic strength. When PMI is higher than 50%, it reflects the overall economic expansion; if it is less than 50%, it reflects the overall economic contraction.
2. Scope of the investigation
Involving 31 industries in the “National Economic Sector Classification” (GB/T4754-2011), 3,000 survey samples; 36 non-manufacturing industry categories, 4,000 survey samples.
3. Survey method
Purchasing manager surveys use the Probability Proportional to Size (PSS) sampling method, which is based on the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industries. The sample size of the industry is allocated based on the proportion of the added value to the total added value of manufacturing or non-manufacturing industries. Samples are extracted using the probability of being proportional to the company's main business income.
This survey was carried out by the investigation team directly under the National Bureau of Statistics. It used the national statistics online direct reporting system to conduct a monthly questionnaire survey of corporate procurement managers.
4. Calculation method
(1) Calculation method of classification index. Manufacturing purchasing managers survey index system includes production, new orders, new export orders, on-hand orders, finished product inventory, purchase volume, imports, purchase price of major raw materials, factory price, raw material inventory , Practitioners, Supplier Delivery Time, Expectations for Production and Business Activities, etc. 13 Category Indexes. Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Survey Indicator System Including Business Activities, New Orders, New Export Orders, On Hand Orders, Inventory, Input Prices, Sales Prices , employees, supplier delivery time, business activity expectations, etc. 10 sub-indices. The sub-index uses a diffusion index calculation method, that is, the percentage of enterprises that are responding positively, plus half of the percentage of respondents who do not change. Composite index, the international generally used business activity index to reflect the overall development of non-manufacturing economy.
(2) The method of calculating the manufacturing PMI index. The manufacturing PMI is calculated by weighting five diffusion indices (sub-indexes). The five sub-indexes and their weights are determined based on the degree of their prior economic impact. Including: New order index, weight 30%; production index, weight 25%; employee index, weight 20%; supplier delivery time index, weight 15%; raw material inventory index, weight 10%. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is an inverse index, and the inverse operation is performed when synthesizing the manufacturing PMI index.
(3) Calculation method of comprehensive PMI output index. The comprehensive PMI output index is a weighted sum of the manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index. The weights are the ratio of manufacturing and non-manufacturing to GDP. The index was released in January 2018.
5. Seasonal adjustment
The survey of purchasing managers is a monthly survey. Due to the influence of seasonal factors, the data is subject to large fluctuations. The indexes currently released are all seasonally adjusted data.