The single-chip Transceiver solution raised the threshold for base station chips, making it even more difficult for domestic manufacturers to enter. The self-sufficiency rate of the base station chip is almost zero, which has become the most thorny issue in ZTE's embargo.
The United States is a sword sealing throat.
In December last year, at a forum in Guangzhou, I had the privilege of meeting with a high-level executive from ZTE. He showed a beautiful PPT, listed ZTE’s AI advantages, and described the “Smart City” plan with ambition. Say this person. Strong performance, not taking into account the feelings of other guests, self-talking.
Also in this forum, some scholars have concluded that the level of Chinese artificial intelligence can be comparable to that of the United States.
Now it seems that some words are too early.
Although the gap between China and the United States in the high-tech field has long been known, it really did not happen. The defeat was so rapid.
In the two weeks since the start of the Sino-US trade war, I have experienced three memorable conversations. The three interviewees are a senior engineer who once worked at Tencent. I asked him A. One is a scholar who studies Sino-U.S. relations. I call him B. The third is an American scientist. He worked for NASA and was responsible for the development of spy satellites. I called him C. He was my friend of the landlord in the United States. I do not want to disclose their identity. , because their names can be found in google academic or hownet.
Why do I focus on these three conversations because it involves the three important aspects of the 'ZTE Incident':
The first is how high is the high-tech industry in China in the end? In the world, what kind of level is it?
The second is whether China has a misjudgment at the strategic level. In the past few years, how did the upstart mentality get up?
The third is, from the perspective of a foreign scientist, what are the advantages and disadvantages of our country?
'The chip was not invented by a group of poor people'
The first question, what level of China's high-tech industry is in the world? Answered by A.
His answer is very clear. China's high-tech industry has developed rapidly and is remarkable. In the world, it is between the first and the second tier, in some areas, such as fiber optics, aerospace, drones, super Computers, etc. have entered the ranks of the world's advanced level. According to the Phoenix News Channel: The United States holds about 23% of the world's PCT international patent applications, while China and Japan occupy about 20% of the United States respectively. 3. China, Japan and Japan have become the three main forces in global technological innovation.
In terms of the total transcripts, it is quite good. From a poor student, he jumped to the top 10 in the class. For details, please see the toasting materials of 'Will not go back'. I will not start. (China Science and Technology Strength How fast is approaching the United States? Yuan Xiaofeng)
However, compared with the United States, it is still far from the standard of China.
To build a chip, assaulted, the Chinese did not try it. In April 2001, Fangzhou No. 1 succeeded. Liang Ning’s article “A reprint of domestic chips and operating systems” was recorded. Pass this exciting moment.
However, breakthroughs in the high-tech field must not be achieved overnight. In addition to the chips, an operating system is also needed, which requires an ecology.
Liang Ning said in the article, 'We only discovered that Intel did not make a CPU, but nurtured a CPU-based development ecosystem.'
Our high-tech companies are basically the third best, that is, commercialized packaging, branding, sales, and customer service. The first (core components) and second (public version, products, etc.) Domestic companies are bypassing the past. The Ark No. 1 team went ahead and developed all the way to the end. The final result was a complete failure.
In fact, there is no point in saying anything. Look at Liang Ning’s own analysis:
Ineffective.
In addition to the document format, other software experiences, and various user complaints, it would be too much, and it would be great to think about the big family toes. Users generally complained about the need to change back to Wintel.
In this way, we failed.
Later, the Ark CPU stopped development. Yongzhong Bankruptcy and liquidation. The tens of thousands of Taiwan's government in order to support an industry, and pay the NC, it is estimated that long ago sold scrap iron.
Lost in the user experience. Even if the executive gives you strength, gives you a policy, or even forcibly expels Microsoft, installs a boat, this system can not survive.
In the process of manufacturing Chinese cores, there is no shortage of heroes. Many scientists have worked hard, have devoted their lives, but they have only taken a small step. This does not blame them. Success is not a matter of course.
It is actually very difficult to make chips. China has been working hard for 40 years and it has been a good development. Today, the United States is accumulating for more than 100 years. It has also experienced two technological revolutions to promote it, and it has today's dominant position.
There is no down-to-earth R&D, investment, trial and error, and why can you think about cornering?
A said something meaningful: 'The chip was not invented by a group of poor people. Because chips can't produce results in the short term. Even if they don't produce results for the rest of their lives, the poor people are anxious to make money. They can be poor for a few years, but who It can't be impoverished for a lifetime. China's current generation of developers, who aren't poor kids? Who doesn't have a family to raise?'
'It's not a person who falsifies, it's a system
People are poor and easy to follow. Someone makes money in the name of developing chips. They falsify and use fraudulent results to defraud the country of huge sums of money.
The 'Hanxin' released in February 2003 was said to be able to perform 200 million operations per second and its data is close to the most advanced international level. The media reported that it has become a bright pearl for government institutions. It was from a Yangtze River scholar at Tongji University. The hand is called Chen Jin. Han Xin brings tens of millions of research funds to Chen Jin. For details, see China Youth Daily series.
This Han Xin, later proved to be a scandal. Until 3 years later, someone in the scientific community reported to the media that Hanxin’s myths formally went bankrupt.
Can not see, can not achieve human-machine dialogue. It is said that the most important function of the Hanxin is to play MP3, broadcast broadcast to a song "Laughing in the sea". Even Chen Jin can not give the first new song.
However, the final treatment will be lost.
Someone questioned:
'This is not a person who is falsifying. It may be that a system is falsifying.
A national major project, from the application, the project, to the final evaluation of the expert committee, has a strict process. It is all experts and academicians who have been involved in this industry for decades. Academicians can make no falsehood, and at a glance, why not? Demolition?'
'Originally, everybody held the country’s research funding direction and helped each other. Money first got it, and when it came time to do a final assessment, it passed.'
'Originally, in a low-key point, the funding for the application, the little days are nourishing. However, this time the blind is big and put satellites on.
It can be seen that the development of the Chinese core soon reached a bottleneck. And this bottleneck cannot easily be overcome. There are dead guys, such as the Ark 1 team, but also speculators, such as Chen Jin and others, but more. It is the use of doctrine, directly on the basis of the existing chip to pick up the third stick.
Hanxin No. 1 is an extremely extreme case. Its problem is that the satellites are too large to be confusing. However, there are numerous satellites. Including many independent innovations in China, they may be satellites.
The Chinese people are too eager to break through. From the government, to the media, to the public, they all want independent innovation in every area.
So, this became a devil.
'The game between China and the United States is structural, and whoever comes to power is the same'
Professor B told me that 15 years ago, Chen Jinfang’s satellite could be discovered. Because the media dared to speak at the time, 'someone was willing to be true.' Everyone knows, and regardless of whether or not love is not patriotic, it will not work if it is falsified.
But today, it seems that everyone is playing a fool, and likes to shout 'I'm strong in my country'.
A new round of touts is emerging. The technical myths, military myths, and internet myths of China are appearing in a different way than before. This is not essentially different from the 60,000 years ago of '100 thousand kilograms per mu'.
In fact, all industries have impulses to make fakes. Without supervision mechanisms, there will be endless falsifications. If falsification has gained its sweetness, then it will be out of control. Moreover, counterfeiting is suspected of being inconsistent, and if one party commits fraud, if it is not severely punished, then Others will also follow the falsification. The final result is that all people fake.
One Chen Jin fell and ten million Chen stood up.
As early as 2015, he found a clue in a group of scholars. He found a group of people and began to boast about China's industrial standards, even to the point where it was invincible.
Professor B said, 'I wondered, we have to go to Hong Kong to buy milk powder. How could it be invincible?'
In that year, the President of the United States was still Obama, and the two countries had serious friction on the issue of the South China Sea. At that time, there was a group of so-called 'hawks' in the country who felt that it was time to shine their sword.
The word "hide the brilliance" was abandoned at the time.
Thanks to the wisdom and efforts of the foreign ministry, China and the United States did not have a significant conflict that year and it was a small crisis. However, the mentality has not been corrected and it has become even more arrogant. Before the trade war, Gao There are still a lot of people who call out beyond the United States.
When there are some rational scholars in the country trying to cool down, these immoral people even shouted the slogan: 'Excise the imperial emperor, internal punishment is known'. The domestic atmosphere has become strange.
The more we are attached to the rise of the great powers, the easier it is to get out of balance. This kind of eagerness for success will affect our work, leading to an imbalance of mindsets, resulting in prevailing ostracism and fraud.
A structural contradiction emerged in Sino-U.S. relations. The comprehensive national strength of the two countries gradually approached, and the international order gradually transitioned from the original unipolar structure to the Sino-U.S. bipolar structure. The US’s GDP in 2017 was 195,558.74 billion U.S. dollars. China’s GDP is 131.758 billion U.S. dollars, in terms of the total amount, is really close. Zhang Yuyan, director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, even publicly stated at the Boao Forum for Asia: 2017 is a period of qualitative change in Sino-U.S. relations. Because China GDP has reached two-thirds of the United States.
As soon as the bipolar structure arrives, Sino-U.S. relations will have to change. Whether it is Trump or Hillary’s rule, it will not be able to pass.
In fact, no matter who is the president of the United States, this will be a trade war against China. Because today's China has threatened the U.S. interests, hegemony, and the world order it controls. 20 years ago, the total vote was abstained from the Security Council. China’s sudden and frequent veto vote in recent years has made the United States very uncomfortable!
The only variable is time: when.
For many years, China has been keeping its low profile and has held Taiji. It has not been dewy. Plus, in the past decade, the United States has been focusing on the affairs of the Middle East. It is Bin Laden, Saddam, and the United States. There is a lot of heart. But we must admit that in recent years, we are too unrestrained, arrogant, and have a glance at CCTV's spring and evening.
On the day of the Sino-U.S. trade war, we discovered that some science and technology myths, industrial myths, are really myths.
Trump is a man who needs enemies. Trump is best at deaf people. It is powerful and powerful.
In the general election, he took the anti-establishment line. His specialty is to destroy all myths. Things that the Democratic Party has constructed meticulously, such as universal values, such as political correctness, have the power to smash them one by one, and prove that all you have said is It is a ghost story.
However, he has a significant weakness, that is, he can't build anything new. He can only rebel and he can't draw a blueprint. When he became president, he could not find North easily. Tax reduction, medical reform, diplomacy, infrastructure, he Few things can be done.
So Trump especially longed for the appearance of 'enemies' in order to hide his incompetence in construction.
If China emerges in front of him and wants to flex its muscles, it will be easy for Trump to pack up.
Killing China's rise in the cradle, why not do it.
It has always been stressed that Trump is a businessman who is mercenary, has no values, and is easy to buy. Some people also say that Trump is much better at dealing with Hillary than he is. But don't be really fooled by Trump. This trade war is really nothing.
In 2010, at the ASEAN Secretariat Forum in Jakarta, when foreign journalists asked questions, China and the United States were collectively referred to as G2. Dai Bingguo immediately refuted, “Don’t it not, China is just a developing country. Foreign media throws a trap, China is looking To be accurate, the grandson would pretend to be a grandson. At that time, China’s slogan was still “in line with international standards.” This is also the secret of China’s rise: low-key, pragmatic.
'China AI surpasses the United States? Americans are not interested'
U.S. media, whether it is the BBC or today USA, did not focus on the trade war between China and the United States. Instead, they chronically reported that Trump's parents were short. For example, the FBI investigated his lawyer, where the shooting happened, and so on.
The citizens of the United States know that there are not many people who know the trade war between China and the US. Many people are surprised to say that REALLY? This seems to be a signal that Americans do not feel the trade war.
If a war strikes, a country is on the verge of losing its superiority. The country of B is insignificant. It is not yet known that the war has already begun. In fact, the outcome has been set.
C. A scientist from the United States spoke about what he knew about China. Of course, there are many good words, including Chinese people who are smart, very diligent, and very good. I asked him tentatively, What about the level of artificial intelligence in the United States? Compared with China ?
His answer is that we don't want to invent a computer that is not controlled. That's why we don't have a force on artificial intelligence. We do something and certainly don't do something.
In other words, China thinks that in some respects it has surpassed the United States. It is an illusion.
He concluded by saying that the United States is a great country. She not only has first-rate citizens, but also has a first-rate system.
The last sentence is very important.
I remembered what A said. Why did Han Xin come to the end and become a fake competition, and it was a collective fraud?
When death has no result, falsification becomes a direct way to cash out.
There are too many people in China, too much suffering, and they will inevitably seek quick profits and take advantage of risks. But in the West, there are sound scientific research guarantee systems that allow you to fail and allow you to try something wrong. But in China, if you have no results, you are destined to mediocrity. , The error correction mechanism is not perfect, and honesty is not valued. Everything is result-oriented.
Liang Ning said that after the loss of Ark One, he did two types of work: one was 'I represented a product, you helped me build channels in China', or 'made a product, you help me to run Running a government relationship'. He felt that in fact it was a worldly success. It was very simple.
Finally, make a summary:
1. The independent research and development of the chip is a long one and it is a very low rate of return. It requires several generations of Chinese people. With scientific ideals, it has to go forward and struggle for decades.
2. For Chinese people who have been out of poverty for a few years, higher education is a huge investment. If there is no rate of return for R&D, it is really not affordable. The Chinese have independent research and development capabilities, they are strong, but they have the ability to speculate. It is also very strong.
3, In contrast, fraud, defrauding funds, is a less costly way of realizing. Leaders' quick success and instant benefits give academic satellites great opportunities. Besides, the Chinese people are more pursuing the 'secular success'.
4. The bragging blows, and he himself believes. Not to be sanctioned by the United States, I really do not know that I am streaking.
5. Trump does not fly, but the strength of the United States, especially its institutional strength, is still worthy of our unfailing learning. It is no problem to be enemies with the United States, but do not use common sense as the enemy and reason as the enemy.