Sina Technology News Beijing time on April 30 evening news, according to the Taiwan media "Business Times" website reported that KGI analyst star Ming Guomin left on Friday (April 27), may come to the mainland in the future.
The report said that Guo Minghao’s next plan is not yet fully determined, but is most likely to go to mainland brokers or global research institutions. In addition, Guo Minghao’s future areas of responsibility are likely to no longer focus on Apple (hereinafter referred to as 'Apple'), but To extend to more emerging industries.
It can be said that Guo Mingyi is the best-known 'Apple analyst' and is hailed as 'the world's most accurate prediction of Apple's experts'. Before Apple's new iPhone specification was announced at the September conference, but with Guo Mingzhao, At least half a year ago you knew what new tricks Apple wanted to change.
In fact, Guo Mingyi’s resignation rumors began to ferment at the end of last year. Informed sources said that the bigger market and more opportunities for emerging industries are the main reasons for Guo Mingzhu’s conversion of the runway.
First, the competitiveness of science and technology in Taiwan is indeed not weak, but apart from semiconductors and Apple's supply chain, services and software are the mainstream of the future. By contrast, the industrial ecosystem of the mainland or other countries is more complete and attractive than Taiwan’s. .
Second, from the point of view of an analyst's career planning, if you only expect Taiwan's transition from the PC kingdom to the experience of the wisdom machine supply chain to be a big country, it is not practical. Because in the process of turning to the future, it will certainly take a lot of time. The middle of industrial pains is a high opportunity cost for analysts.
Rather than sit back and wait, it is better to participate in new trends and business opportunities from a broader perspective, and not necessarily limited to the electronic supply chain. In fact, over the past two years or so, investment banks such as Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Deutsche Bank have carried out human reconfigurations. Transferred many analysts to Hong Kong or the mainland. (Li Ming) Sina Technology
2. The United States surveys Huawei or is worried that China's 5G competition will lag behind China;
A few days ago, the "Wall Street Journal" reported that the US Department of Justice is investigating whether Huawei has violated the sanctions imposed on the Iranian embargo.
In response, Huawei said that Huawei strictly complies with applicable laws and regulations in the markets it operates and international export control laws and sanctions including the United Nations, the United States, and the European Union.
1 Huawei is affected
On April 16, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it would ban US companies from selling components, goods, software and technology to ZTE (31.310, 0.00, 0.00%) for the next seven years. The reason for the ban was ZTE's violation of U.S. restrictions to sell to Iran. U.S. technical sanctions.
This incident originated in 2012 when the United States launched investigation on the sale of illegal US computer technology from Iran to ZTE. In March 2016, the U.S. Department of Commerce disclosed on its website a ZTE internal document obtained from its investigation. The document shows that ZTE Corporation has business dealings with a number of US export ban countries and violated US export restrictions. Since then, ZTE and the U.S. government have provided good offices for a year. In March 2017, ZTE admitted to violating U.S. sanctions against Iran. Sell US merchandise and technology, and pay US $ 1.192 billion in fines to the U.S. government.
However, this year, the United States re-announced the ban on sales. The reason is that according to the agreement at that time, ZTE promised to dismiss 4 senior employees and punish 35 employees by reducing bonuses or penalties. However, ZTE admitted in March that it has not honored. The second half promises.
On December 20, 2017, '18 U.S. Congressmen sent a letter to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Chairman Ajit Pai'. The e-mail appeared in public view. The main content of the e-mail was to request the FCC to cooperate with Huawei. The cooperation of the U.S. operator was investigated.
2 The United States deliberately blocked many times
In fact, the United States has had a "preparedness" for Huawei. Many normal transactions between Huawei and U.S. companies have been hindered by the U.S. government.
From 2008 to 2010, Huawei attempted to acquire 3Com, a U.S. equipment provider, and bid for US Sprinter Sprint project. The acquisition of 3Leaf patented technology developer in the San Francisco Bay Area of the United States failed due to intervention by the relevant U.S. authorities on the grounds of 'national security'. .
In the period of 2011-2016, the U.S. conducted summons and investigations on Huawei, and asked the relevant government departments not to purchase information technology systems without permission.
After the capital and equipment went into the US without success, Huawei hoped to open the US market by selling Huawei and glorious smart phones in the United States. However, this was also blocked by the US government. In early 2018, the two major US operators AT&T and Verizon Both gave up plans to sell Huawei's latest smartphones. Subsequently, US consumer electronics retailer Best Buy stopped selling Huawei mobile phones, laptops and smart watches.
After the United States blocked Huawei again and again, Huawei’s attitude toward the US market gradually changed.
Earlier, Huawei Terminal CEO Yu Chengdong was confident in entering the US market through the operator channel. Earlier this year, Huawei and US operator AT&T cooperation was halted. However, Huawei has not abandoned the US market.
However, at the Huawei Analyst Conference on April 17th, a reporter asked a question about the US business environment. Huawei's rotation chairman, Chairman Xu Zhijun, said: 'Some things are not based on our will, and we can't do it with you. Let's manage him. In this way we will have more energy and time to serve our customers, have more time and energy to build better products to meet the needs of our customers. Some things, let go, but easy.'
3 5G competition
Why did the United States frequently target Huawei, ZTE Telecom analyst Liang Zhenpeng said in an interview with the International Finance News that the U.S. move was to fight China’s 5G development.
According to a report released last week by the US Wireless Industry Association CTIA, global competition for 5G technology is in progress, and China is heading for victory. The research report was conducted by telecom research companies Analysys Mason and Recon Analytics. The study found that under the rollout, For the generation of ultra high-speed wireless technology, China is the most prepared, second in South Korea and third in the United States.
According to the CTIA report, China is in a leading position in the 5G competition. The Chinese government plans to achieve 5G commercial scale by 2020. China's top operators have promised to meet this timetable.
In fact, China has already begun to lead the global 5G market. Huawei, as the main force, has become a thorn in the United States.
Huawei's 5G innovation began in 2009. From the formulation of the 5G standard to the realization of 5G calls, Huawei's 5G technology has taken the lead in the world. At the Huawei Analyst Conference, Huawei's rotating chairman, Chairman Xu Zhijun, said that Huawei will continue to invest in 5G. In the second half of this year, it will be able to provide end-to-end 5G solutions, while at the same time in the third quarter of next year will launch 5G mobile phone support.
Last month, the U.S. government repudiated Broadcom’s acquisition of Qualcomm’s total value of 160 billion US dollars on the grounds of national security. CNN reported that the reason why the U.S. government stopped the acquisition was the concern of Qualcomm’s acquisition of U.S. 5G technology. The development will lag behind China.
It is understood that Qualcomm is a leader in global 3G and 4G technologies and is investing in the development of 5G. The US government hopes that it can develop independently.
4 Impact on Huawei Geometry
Then, what impact will the United States have on Huawei when it investigates Huawei?
The CICC research report pointed out that this time only an investigation was conducted on Huawei. Unlike the case where ZTE was sanctioned by the US Department of Commerce on April 16, investors do not need to panic. However, if any restrictions are imposed on Huawei, it may affect the global industrial chain. The stability.
In other words, the biggest difference between Huawei and ZTE lies in the fact that the U.S. government has evidence that ZTE has violated regulations, and that Huawei is currently in the phase of suspicion and investigation. The U.S. government has not obtained relevant evidence.
In addition, the communication expert Kang Hao said that Huawei’s corporate services, operator networks and consumer terminals’ market share in the United States was not very large. Therefore, Huawei’s investigation into this business in the US market has little impact.
However, if the United States also implements an export ban on Huawei, will Huawei follow the steps of ZTE and enterprises will enter a state of shock?
In the ZTE incident, 'the pain of lack of core' became the deadly problem of ZTE.
However, on the chip side, Huawei is obviously better prepared than ZTE. For example, Huawei has already applied its own Kylin chip in its Mate series of mobile phones.
Xu Zhijun also said that Huawei's mobile phones use a multi-chip supply strategy, and Qualcomm, MTK and Unicorn are chip suppliers for Huawei smartphones.
Independent telecommunications analyst Fu Liang pointed out that compared with ZTE, Huawei is stronger in terms of diversification and internationalization. Huawei will be more comprehensive in the supply chain and will not be constrained by some vendors like ZTE. At the same time, Huawei’s financial status Superior to ZTE, there is no pressing demand for special orders that are more risky in countries such as Asia, Africa and Latin America.
Although Huawei is less dependent on exports than ZTE, it also has certain reliance on U.S. vendor technology and products. For example, for data centers, the main chip partner of public cloud processors is Intel.
Xu Zhijun said frankly that Huawei expects to be diversified, but diversification is more difficult.
Kang Wei said that if Huawei and ZTE are banned by the United States, it is very likely that they will face the same problems as ZTE. Although Huawei is more powerful than ZTE in terms of mobile phone brand, technology research and development, and market expansion, its core components are upstream. Most of the technology comes from the United States, including ARM architecture, Intel chips, and Android operating systems. Once these products and technologies are cut off, they will have a major impact on Huawei.
Reporter Wu Mingzhou Intern Cai Shumin International Finance News
3. This American writer uttered the truth that the Sino-U.S. trade dispute was refuted by Yang Weimin;
Sina Finance News The '2018 China-World Thought Dialogue', co-sponsored by the China Institute of Economic Thought and Practice and the China Economic 50 Forum, was held on April 28 at Tsinghua University.
The New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman of the US bestseller said that the interests between the United States and China are me and I have you, but they have different polities, different concepts, and different stages of development. 'Over the past 30 years We can also manage our differences very well. For example, China has different sets of rules for the development of enterprises, the use of capital, government subsidies, and how to do competitive management.
The reason why the above atmosphere is good is because 'China still stays on low-value-added products, not microelectronics, chips, and we can tolerate such a difference,' but now China is advancing China’s manufacturing. 2025, is no longer a T-shirt or battery, photovoltaic, we see China in the development of AI, electric vehicles, some of the high-tech products, which will make our economy a threat.
With regard to the above viewpoint, Yang Weimin, deputy director of the Central Financial and Economic Commission Office, refuted that 'only letting China produce T-shirts, let the United States produce high-tech, this kind of international trade transaction is unreasonable and inappropriate.'
He believes that Chinese companies are gradually moving toward high technology. This is precisely the result of the implementation of a market economy. 'It's not that the government has ordered companies to do this. This is an economic law. His labor costs have risen. He must develop higher added value. The products, such as BOE, turned out to be a very old state-owned enterprise. Finally, they chose to enter the liquid crystal display field and become one of the top ones in the world. 'This is exactly the result of our reforms. On the one hand, you let us reform. , The company walked like this, and you said that you can't enter this area. This is my domain. This is not enough, because globalization, you can produce, why can't I produce, and finally I can see the results of the competition'.
In addition, Yang Weimin also admitted that, strictly speaking, the gap between Chinese companies and the United States in the field of high technology is still very large. 'We have a larger body and account for a large market advantage. We do not devalue these companies. They dominate the market. Large volume does not lie in the high level of core technology'. Sina Finance
4. Asus, Taiwan, Quanta Group AI National Team;
ASUS, Taiwan, and Quanta teamed up to form the AI Artificial Intelligence Dream Team. They announced their victory in the first battle after the start of the military yesterday (30th). They obtained the National High-speed Network and Computing Center of the National Laboratory Research Institute for Cloud Computing and Big Data Computing Facilities and Integration. The grade-level storage system was built with a record of RMB 1.1 billion. The next step is not to rule out entering the international market.
The Economic Daily provides Asustek, Taiwan and Quanta, both domestic technology industry giants. The annual revenue of the three companies amounted to 1.6 trillion yuan. The “Zhaoyuan Team” resources are combined with the “Taiwan Artificial Intelligence Team A” for Taiwan. AI Artificial Intelligence Dream Team.
Taiwan University stated that "Taiwan Artificial Intelligence Team A" is the first integration of leading companies in Taiwan. It integrates terminal equipment manufacturing, network construction, and technology application service planning. It is an integrated software and hardware manufacturer. Cross-group industry cooperation in telecommunications and finance.
"Taiwan Artificial Intelligence A Team" consists of ASUS responsible for cloud server, cloud service platform and AI application integration services, Taiwan Big Brothers responsible for building computer rooms, security and transportation, and Quanta Computer for AI/High Speed Computing (HPC) operations. Data storage platform.
Taiwan University, Asustek and Quanta have jointly won the bid of the AI R&D and cloud service infrastructure of the State Grid Center, assisted in the construction of a new generation of AI computing hosts, and established the AI Cloud Big Data Computing The platform, with a total amount of about RMB 1.1 billion, is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter.
Zheng Junqing, general manager of Taiwan University, said that Taiwan’s cooperation with Asustek and Quanta was an important milestone. Winning the AI R&D and cloud service infrastructure construction bids of the State Grid Center was a major development.
Wu Chuanhui, chief operating officer of the Taiwanese enterprise user group, said that with the integration of AI and the cloud, it is difficult for individual vendors to win the bid on their own. Through partnerships with partners, integrative solutions can be provided in a platoon manner to win. Key. Economic Daily
5. The crazy bitcoin market, it is time to be 'killed';
'Hunting Cloud Network' reported on April 30 (Compilation: Halcyon)
Editor's Note: This article is an article published in The MIT Technology Review entitled "Let's destroy Bitcoin," which details three possible ways to 'kill' Bitcoin. the way.
In 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto (Nakamoto Satoshi) brought a new currency to the world - Bitcoin. This currency can be quickly circulated on the Internet and at no additional cost. Unlike most currencies, Bitcoin does not rely on central bank issues. , But it is the user's own participation in the manufacture and distribution. It can guarantee the privacy of the transaction object in the process of financial transactions. At the same time, it is theoretically impossible to fake Bitcoin.
It has been nine years since the concept was proposed. At present, there are about 24 million active bitcoin wallets in the world. The price of a single bitcoin has increased from about US$1 in 2011 and reached US$10,000 by the end of 2017. 19,700 US dollars.
However, success must be accompanied by competition. The current cryptocurrency on the market is still dominated by Bitcoin; as of early April this year, its market value is three times that of the largest rival, Ethereum, and is roughly equivalent to other cryptocurrencies on the market. The sum of values.
Although Bitcoin has established an economy that cannot forge transactions, it cannot prevent copying of this idea. No one can copy personal Bitcoins, but anyone can copy the idea of Bitcoin. Then, how can it be done? Bitcoin loses value or becomes superfluous? The following are elaborated from the perspectives of government, corporations and the general public.
Option 1: Government Takeover
This year will definitely be a year of major events. To solve the dollar crisis, the government will issue a federal reserve-backed digital currency called Fedcoin. On the arrival of the tax payment day, the corresponding amount of Fedcoin will automatically be from citizens’ electronic wallets. deduction.
This type of currency is a digital version of a coin issued by a bank many years ago, such as banknotes. Long ago, the central bank began to collect cash and convert it into federal currency. In recent years, the hard currency circulating in the market has become less and less. You only need to go into a local bank, verify your identity, and the bank will set up an electronic wallet on your mobile phone. Naturally, you don’t need a coin. However, most people still keep a few bucks worth of US dollars and collect it. It can be used as a souvenir.
The digital currency issued by the Central Bank was generated from a modified version of the Bitcoin blockchain. This hypothetical currency was elaborated by David Andolfatto, research director of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and later refined by Sahil Gupta as an undergraduate at Yale University. Sahil Gupta wrote a research article on how Fedcoin-like currencies work. Together with colleagues, he wrote code for simulation tests.
In the system they set up, the blockchain, like Bitcoin, is able to record transactions. However, Fedcoin accounts are managed primarily by FRC-certified agencies rather than by unrelated peers. Gupta told reporters: ' These licensing nodes may be U.S. banks, JP Morgan, which are basically trustworthy institutions.
Each bank is responsible for a large number of addresses in the blockchain. When a new transaction is generated, the bank will verify the new block and send it to the Fed. After that, as the final arbiter, the Fed will check all records and Unify these blocks and become their public blockchain version.
To use the fedcoin, people must first show proof of identity and set up a wallet at the Federal Reserve Bank or Union Bank. The Federal Reserve allows two-way exchange of the US dollar and digital currency - the exchange rate is 1:1. Gupta said that a plan like this might get Popularization, and eventually led to the gradual disappearance of cash.
He said: 'I imagine that the public first develops the habit of spending Fedcoin on things like grocery items and movie tickets. 'Slowly, people are starting to realize that this digital currency is more convenient than cash, and businesses realize that it is more than credit cards. At a low price, the bank realized that it was actually more secure. By then, the dollar would gradually withdraw from the money supply, and the days of replacement by Fedcoin would come soon.
This is not just an experiment of academic thought. As early as 2016, the Canadian Bank had simulated this currency in a blockchain like Ethereum.
The researchers found that the digital version of the national currency could match or even increase Bitcoin's efficiency. Gupta believes that when the central bank lags behind the system (as opposed to the peer-to-peer network that currently records Bitcoin transactions), transaction processing should be faster. This increase in efficiency can save a lot of money. The bank should also have been madly studying blockchain technology. The 2016 report stated that due to the decline in taxes and transaction fees, only a small portion of the digital currency issued by the central bank will eventually enable domestic use. Gross domestic product grows by 3%.
Option 2: Facebook’s dark acquisition
Once again, we began to think wisely, this time not having to think too far. Because if the right people act together, it is very likely that Bitcoin will disappear tomorrow. This time, Bitcoin will be acquired by social media giants. For simplicity, Let's choose Facebook, which boasts more than 2 billion users worldwide.
Imagine how Facebook can use its popularity to overthrow Bitcoin. Let's take a look at how Telegram, another large Internet company, deals with this issue. In January of this year, Telegram's secure communications application has more than 2 globally. Billion users. Subsequently, the company announced that it will create Grams, a cryptocurrency designed specifically for its communications applications. Users can send each other over the Internet or use a paid service. By February, Telegram sold money in advance in the first round of financing. In the form of investors, 850 million U.S. dollars were raised. By the end of March, another 850 million U.S. dollars were raised in the second round.
So, just like Telegram, Facebook can also issue its own digital currency. Or, it can take a more sinister route: Use bitcoin to deal with bitcoin itself and take over it.
Currently, the rules of Bitcoin are implemented by three associated network operators: users submitting transaction requests, miners processing these requests and writing them into the blockchain, and verification procedures for verifying whether or not standards are met within the blockchain. All three are using interoperable software, which allows them to be integrated in a single blockchain.
Any subset of network participants can decide to use another version of Bitcoin software at any time with slightly different rules to separate it from other software to form parallel currency. To be exact, Bitcoin Cash (bits) is launched based on Bitcoin's original chain. Coin cash) was officially launched last year. This is an alternative blockchain, with slightly different specifications, allowing it to handle more transactions per block.
If Facebook can convince enough Bitcoin users and miners to run its own Bitcoin software, then Facebook can control these rules. Then, Facebook can redesign Bitcoin into the corporate version of 'Fedcoin'.
However, there is a better way to not convert a whole bunch of true believers: Facebook can withdraw acquisitions before most people realize what they are doing.
First, it takes a month to create a user-friendly, secure Facebook-issued bitcoin wallet. To put it plainly, Bitcoin wallets are a container of digital currencies. There are many different types - some are hardware, some are Software, their respective security levels and ease of use are not the same. With its huge engineering resources and user experience design expertise, Facebook will not make its wallet worse.
Then, overnight, integrate it into a 2.2 billion Facebook account. The next morning, Facebook users woke up and found a new setting in their profile: A small button with 'Send Bitcoin' written on it. Facebook users The address can't use non-significant alphanumeric strings, which must be displayed in real names.
For those who have already used Bitcoin, the experience on Facebook far exceeds what they have experienced before. After the experience, they will immediately transfer funds to their Facebook wallet. Those who have not yet owned any Bitcoin. , or someone who has never heard of these bitcoins, can choose to earn some bitcoins on the website. The general method is to watch advertisements or post.
For those who are tired of advertising, you can mix other interesting features. To get a clean, ad-free experience, users can choose to let Facebook use the computer's unused processing power to mine Bitcoin. Also, without exaggerating Under the circumstances, users can set up a data center and start developing Bitcoin themselves.
Now, let your users apply these remarkable new tools to their daily lives. Give them the opportunity to enjoy instant remittance on Facebook to any friend on the global platform. As a potential asset of Facebook's recessive reputation economy (like , reviews and all other behavioral indicators, users gain credibility by placing their own attention on the web page, browse the page, and make related actions, all with real transaction value. Give users time to make them addicted slowly.
Then, control Bitcoin. If most people with Bitcoin and those who start Bitcoin are using your software, you can change it as you see fit. Like bitcoin cash, few people are rebellious. Instead of continuing to use your e-wallet, you choose to send their trades to a few ideologically driven miners who continue to work on the old Bitcoin blockchain. Don't worry about them. True Bitcoin, almost all people in the world Bitcoin used is now yours.
Now you have the same powers as the Fed holds with the central government's currency. You can cast, block and redistribute the coins.
Option 3: Step-by-step, diverse development
Another way to make Bitcoin insignificant is simply to follow the natural course of development. In the near future, goods and services will increasingly be represented by tokens that can be exchanged with anyone. When you pay in line at a grocery store, using your mobile wallet, you can find not only Fedcoin and FacebookCoin, but also AppleCash, ToyotaCash, and the currency of your store. In addition, there is a coin that can be exchanged for babysitting services. Allows you to take the local subway. You can choose to pay for it with a small portion of Apple stock. The money will be transferred as currency to the grocery store's wallet.
Duke University’s Harvey said: “It seems to me that in the near future, even if there are not millions of payment methods, there will be tens of thousands. He said that if the Fed can create tokens that represent the United States, then Nothing can stop people from exchanging tokens with whatever they want: 'The idea of using a dollar or gold collateral is very common.'
The expected 'future' has already taken place. The trend for blockchain startups is to create services that use only local cryptocurrency features. These currencies are designed for applications. Even many companies that are older than the blockchain are doing this. Class Research. In January of this year, Kodak released a new coin that can be used to authorize photography.
This kind of token is different from the point system and gift card used by the company for customers for decades. It is more convenient to record these assets on the blockchain.
Harvey said: 'You can think of this as an incredibly efficient barter system. Bartering efficiency is usually not high, but if you have a network, tag money and services and enable it through the blockchain, it will become very effective. . '
Enabling transactions between different digital assets will require the entire ecosystem of innovation. For assets that rely on independent blockchains, they need a relatively reliable way to transfer tokens on a blockchain, at the same time, another token Move to somewhere else. Third parties need to quickly match buyers and sellers – for example, if your grocery store does not accept Apple stock, you need to find a middleman to provide acceptable coins to the grocery store.
"Without the Internet, you want to sell four goats. You have to find the trading target yourself, which is very difficult. But through the network and the blockchain-based token mortgage, everything becomes much easier," Harvey said. 'We haven't done this in the world, but this is our goal in the future.'
Losing uniqueness, what else can Bitcoin do?
So what's the problem with the original Bitcoin under these circumstances? Perhaps one of the biggest technical advantages bitcoin enthusiasts call it: Bitcoin transactions are anonymous and cannot be reviewed. When transactions are sent to These advantages disappear when the Fed, Facebook, or a broker network that coordinates the sale of barter assets.
There is no real name stored on the Bitcoin blockchain, but it records every transaction you generate, and each time you use that currency, you may expose information related to identity-related operations. Edward Snowden leaked The document shows that the US National Security Agency is already looking for ways to associate activities on the Bitcoin blockchain with individuals in the real world. To collect all data that may link addresses to names and real identities, National Security The bureau has been eavesdropping on fiber-optic cables, monitoring Internet activity, and has seduce people into compromised platforms by making false promises and claiming to protect their privacy.
If the government tries to create and enforce blacklists, they will find that the power to decide which transactions to take is in the hands of several Bitcoin miners. The Chinese government previously imposed a travel ban, although it is unclear if there are any specific requirements. Sex workers have already felt the pressure from this.
The early adopters of Bitcoin have always adhered to the dream of a single world currency, which is private and freely available to the public and controlled by the general public. However, 7 billion people who have not yet used Bitcoin may not care about this. Through the Internet, convenience is achieved, and all this is based on scale. This is why you choose Facebook over other social media sites - because other websites are much the same. If cryptocurrencies are widely used, it is also out of the mass consumer habits. Instead of the desire of early adopters of Bitcoin, this determines the vision of Satoshi Nakamoto.