'Analysis' IHS: Six major reasons for the sharp drop in TV panel prices in April

1. Hon Hai’s US panel plant will create 13,000 jobs; 2. OLED will become the main force in the high-end TV market; 3. The oversupply of the mainland panel will trigger price wars; 4. IHS announces six major reasons for the dramatic drop in TV panel prices in April 2018; 5. China's five-nation holiday sales are difficult to see friends: will show negative growth

1. Hon Hai US panel plant will create 13,000 jobs;

According to the micro-network news, Hon Hai announced that the construction of a panel production park in Wisconsin will start. It will create 13,000 job opportunities in phases, gradually build AI, 8K+5G ecosystem in Wisconsin, and promote it to all parts of the United States. .

Hon Hai issued a press release. Hon Hai Technology and the collaboration contractor Gilbane Building Company announced that preparations for the LCD panel production park in Racine, Wisconsin, have officially started. The park infrastructure project will begin before the US time this weekend. The ceremony is expected to be held in the next few months.

According to Hon Hai, 90% of the surrounding underwriters of the site's on-site infrastructure projects will be assisted by local companies in Wisconsin, and local companies in Racine will account for 10% of the total. This will ensure the Group's commitment to create employment opportunities in the region.

Hon Hai Chairman Guo Guoming, the Chairman of Hon Hai’s special assistance, stated that the implementation of “Virginia First” commitment is an important milestone. Under the active promotion of this plan, it will start to create 13,000 employment opportunities in phases and gradually construct it in Weizhou. AI, 8K+5G ecosystem, will be promoted throughout the United States.

The initial project of Hon Hai will be awarded to two local companies, Hoffman Construction Company and Gestra Engineering in Weizhou, to assist foundation excavation, water conservancy projects, civil engineering inspection, etc. Hu Guohui stated that the state government, the federal government strongly supported, and Hon Hai in Racine The city and the local government and partners of Monte Pleasant Village fully assisted in making this plan possible.

The Gilbane Building Company, the Wisconsin Economic Development Agency (WEDC) and Hon Hai have invited about 2,000 representatives from building contractors, service providers, and suppliers to hold 14 coordination meetings in the past 4 weeks. Gilbane Senior Vice President Adam Jelen said that the first phase of the development project of the Honghai Smart Ecological Park, a total of US$100 million in tenders, involved a total of 25 to 30 Wisconsin local manufacturers.

Yellen further explained that the entire development has a wide hinterland and it is estimated that more than 3 million cubic meters of soil will be excavated. The initial on-site development work will cost 500,000 work hours. At the peak, 400 workers will work at the same time and 800 jobs will be created. opportunity.

2.OLED becomes the main force of high-end TV market;

Recently, LGDisplay stated that this year the company will provide large-size OLED panels to two brand companies. This is a new partner. This means that the OLED TV camp is further expanded. The data shows that OLED TVs are becoming a high-end market饽饽 ', the situation of supply is forming.

Overall color TV performance remains low

Recently, many color TV companies have announced detailed annual reports for 2017. From the perspective of the annual report, the overall status of the LCD TV business was poor last year, and brand companies encountered many difficulties in this sector.

Last year, Hisense’s multimedia segment’s operating revenue was approximately 30.6 billion yuan, operating costs were approximately 26.2 billion, operating income increased by 6.95% from the previous year, operating costs increased by 11.68% over the previous year, and gross profit margin decreased by 3.62% compared to the previous year; Its operating income from TV products increased by 6.83% over the previous year, operating costs increased by 11.89% over the previous year, and gross profit margin decreased by 3.88 percentage points over the previous year. Konka Group’s revenue from electronic sector was approximately 16.1 billion, and its operating cost was approximately RMB13.1 billion. Operating income decreased by 5.93% year-on-year and gross profit margin increased by 3.8%. Revenue of Konka Color TV business was approximately RMB 12 billion, operating cost was approximately RMB 10.1 billion, operating income decreased by 3.87% year-on-year, gross margin slightly increased by 2.1%, and Changhong achieved operating revenue of 77.632 billion yuan. Yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.57%; the parent company’s net profit was 356 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.76%. In 2017, Skyworth achieved an operating income of 725,480,560, an increase of 22.40%, and a net profit of 95,244,200 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 81.93%.

According to the data, in 2017, China's color TV retail sales reached 47.52 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, the largest decline since 2003. At the same time, the reasons for the rising prices of memory chips and panel prices have appeared in the annual reports of many companies. It is the rise in the manufacturing cost of the whole machine. On the one hand, it is the decline in sales volume. The final result is that the profit of famous brands has fallen to the lowest level in recent years.

High-end market 'scenery' is very different

Compared to many domestic well-known color TV companies in the multimedia business 'struggle', Sony last year in the color TV business can be described as wind and water.

At a recent Sony brand event, Sony’s performance in the high-end TV market was repeatedly mentioned by the company's executives last year. Sony said that in 2017, although the overall scale of the Chinese TV market has shrunk, Sony has seized 4K. The market opportunity of increasing demand in large-sized segments, etc., leads the upgrade of the consumer structure by increasing the supply of high-value-added products, and eventually succeeded in achieving high market share in the large-screen segment.

In fact, last year, Sony combined its own advantages in color TV chips and launched its flagship OLED TV product. The sales performance is impressive. According to the HIS data from a well-known market research organization, Sony’s overall TV revenue in 2017 increased by 21% compared to 2016, including OLED TV contribution. The rate reached 8%.

The results of last year’s strenuous efforts have also become one of the few highlights of some domestic TV companies. The Skyworth annual report pointed out that high-margin, large-size products can greatly reduce the impact of industry average price fluctuations on corporate profits. The large sales of OLED TVs are the primary drivers of Skyworth’s high-end product line sales growth.

OLED becomes the absolute main force in the high-end market

Last year, laser TV and ULED super quality TV were the main layouts of Hisense in the high-end TV market. These two products did bring bright colors to Hisense's color TV business. This year, the company's layout in the high-end market may occur. In the second half of this year, Hisense is expected to join the OLED TV camp. However, at present, Hisense has not formally confirmed this news.

'The television industry is currently in saturation, but OLED TVs have brought new value to the market and will become a breakthrough in the display industry.' Liu Weizhi, CEO of Skyworth Group, said publicly.

At present, under the situation that the overall demand has reached 'saturation', if TV manufacturers do not want to fall into the trap of price warfare, they will only seek new value and develop high-end markets, thus achieving new breakthroughs.

OLED performance has to mention. IHS data show that last year, the high-end TV market of more than $2,500 accounted for 51.3% of global OLED TVs. It accounted for half of the country's total, surpassing LCD TVs for the first time. This figure was only 15.5% in 2015. , 2016 is 35%.

IHS expects that in the high-end market, OLED TVs will continue to maintain a high-speed growth trend. In 2018, OLED TVs will climb to 70.7% in the high-end TV market of US$2,500, becoming an absolute mainstream.

It is worth noting that LG Electronics’ overall TV revenue in 2017 increased by 9% compared to 2016, of which OLED TV contribution rate was as high as 52%. LG's LG Display is currently the only company in the world to mass produce large-size OLED panels.

Li Shangxun, vice president of marketing and marketing of LG Display Television Division, said in an interview with Nanfang Daily reporter recently that companies that had been hesitant have now started to invest in the OLED market. Since the end of 2017, OLED camp has expanded to Philips, including Japanese manufacturers such as Sony and Panasonic. , LG Electronics and other Korean manufacturers as well as Skyworth, Changhong, Konka and other major Chinese manufacturers, a total of 13.

'Now you can be sure that there will be two new companies participating in the OLED TV camp this year.' Li Shangxun revealed. For business reasons, Li Shangxun did not disclose the specific company name.

For both companies, the industry is currently generally considered to be Hisense and Toshiba. And whoever it is, this means that the OLED TV camp has further expanded.

China will become the main battlefield of OLED TV sales

'In March this year, OLED TV panels have seen a 30% shortage of supply and demand.' South Korea's KB Securities analysts said that increased demand may cause OLED panel prices to rise. IHS data analysis shows that the OLED TV panel market will significantly increase in size, 2018 Demand will soar from 1.7 million in 2017 to 2.9 million, and by 2021 is expected to reach 9 million.

At present, from the upstream of the industry, the prices of materials and equipment needed to produce OLED panels have not been loosened, while LGDisplay indicated that the company's OLED panel production capacity in 2018 is about 2.8 million.

Li Shangxun also told the Nanfang Daily reporter: 'At the end of last year, the production of OLED panels had achieved scale operations and turned losses into profits.'

All the above signs show that in the next two years, the prices of OLED panels will not be loosened, but they will not rise so much and will remain relatively stable.

Despite the high price, OLED TV sales competition will be more intense with the participation of more brand companies. At present, in North America and Europe, OLED TV sales have matured, and the industry expects that in the future, China will become The main battlefield of OLED TV sales.

In the rapidly growing OLED demand, the Chinese market has played an important role in promoting. According to HIS data, from the second quarter of this year, the number of OLED TVs in China will enter a period of rapid growth, which is expected to increase 118.8% year-on-year in the second quarter of this year. The third quarter of 2018 is expected to increase 120.4% year-on-year.

According to the agency's expectations, next year, China's OLED TV will continue to maintain rapid growth, an increase of 115.5% compared to 2018. By then, China will also become the only region in the world where OLED TV growth exceeds 100%, and the second fastest growth rate in Japan is expected to be 64.7%.

This is actually the result of consumer upgrades. Nowadays, users are increasingly demanding audiovisual effects. Not only are the requirements for television screen size and display performance constantly increasing, but also the appearance of televisions is increasing. Metal frame, Designs such as 'borderless' are widely sought after. This is also due to the fact that high-end OLED TVs that have perfect picture performance and freer design space are not required because of the need for backlight modules.

To seize the Chinese market, at the end of last year, LG Display confirmed that it will build a world-leading 8.5-generation OLED TV panel production line in Guangzhou, with a monthly production capacity of 60,000 (glass substrate benchmarks). Production is expected to take place in the second half of next year. This is in line with the Korean mainland. After the first overseas OLED panel production line. After the completion of the LG Display Guangzhou 8.5 generation OLED plant, China will become the world's second OLED TV panel production base. Nanfang Daily

3. Overcapacity on the mainland panel

The overcapacity in the LCD panel market in mainland China, including BOE, China Star Optoelectronics and other leading plants to grab market share, did not hesitate to price wars. In the first quarter of this year, the panel price was lower than the 2016 full-year average. In April, it further accelerated the decline, and the market was pessimistic. The price war will last at least one or two years.

Shenwan Hongyuan Securities survey, the mainland panel prices fell sharply in the first quarter of this year, 43-inch, 49-inch and 55-inch decline were 32.37%, 24.72% and 18.60%; panel prices fell to 102 US dollars, 136 US dollars and 175 US dollars, Lower than the average panel price in 2016. April is still falling. According to WitsView's panel price report in late April, the 43-inch and 55-inch average price is US$93 and US$169 per tablet, which is more than in the first quarter. Sliding.

Xu Xingjun, an analyst at GF Securities, pointed out that in the second quarter, the global LCD TV panel market was seriously oversupply, with bear the brunt of April, and panel prices accelerated. It is expected that the first-half results will be generally not optimistic.

Quzhi Consulting analyzed that panel plant stocks were high, but demand was weak, and overall shipments were weak. Coupled with rising trade war risks, global political and economic shocks intensified, causing negative impact on the TV panel market.

Xu Xingjun believes that the overcapacity situation in the LCD panel market in mainland China is the reason for the vicious competition in the price war.

Xu Xingjun pointed out that in order to break the dominance of the LCD panel market from South Korea, Taiwan and Japan for a long time, the mainland has been pushing the country in 2010 to provide financing, tax relief, and government subsidies to shift LCD panel production to the mainland. Rise.

In the next five years, the world is expected to add 18 new panel production lines and the mainland will occupy 14. The mainland is expected to surpass South Korea in 2019 and become the number one producer of LCD panels.

In the process of seizing the market, the price war has been unavoidable. Mainland China BOE, China Star Optoelectronics and other mainland panel makers will inevitably seize the market share of competitors before they can gradually grasp the pricing power of products. Analysts believe that the price war At least, it will last for one to two years. It is worth noting that Korean panel makers did not fight price wars in this scramble and opened up new battlefields. The Global Times reported that Samsung, the world's largest panel maker, realized that Chinese panel makers were involved in the production of LCD panels. After that, it may lead to excess capacity, so it began to sell liquid crystal panel production lines, or transform into more advanced OLED panels.

South Korea's other large panel company, LG Display, shuts down many LCD production lines to produce large-size OLED panels. The report pointed out that under the pressure of the rapid display technology upgrades, Chinese panel companies will continue to invest blindly, which may cause history to repeat itself and lag behind. Korean Enterprises. Economic Daily

4.IHS announced six major reasons for the dramatic drop in TV panel prices in April 2018;

Recently, IHS released the global TV panel price in April. According to the report, TV panel prices continued to decline in April, and the overall decline rate was larger, which was significantly higher than the general market expectation.

Among them, the 32-inch panel price cuts reached 8%, 40吋, 43吋, and 49吋 panel price cuts reached 5%, while the 55吋 panel prices dropped by about 3%.

According to the IHS analysis, the reasons for the sharp drop in the prices of TV panels in April were mainly in the following six areas:

In early April, the United States issued a list of proposed tariffs on Chinese products. The U.S. trade representative proposed to impose an additional 25% tariff on Chinese products on the list. The category on the list includes a number of television components, although it is not currently involved. TV machine, but supply chain fluctuations will still affect demand.

2. World Cup demand forecast is weaker than expected.

3, Chinese TV manufacturers' performance in the first quarter of 2018 was higher than expected, but they lowered their forecast for panel purchases in the second quarter.

4. Most panel makers decided to maintain production capacity in the second quarter in order to maintain cost competitiveness.

5, BOE's 10.5 generation line has been able to produce 65-inch panels, there are already more than 10 TV manufacturers have been eligible to purchase panels, some TV makers as a bargaining chip for price negotiations, despite the production capacity of BOE 10.5 line Not completely released.

6, In order to clear inventory, TV manufacturers are pricing TV at a lower price, so they demand that panel makers make more price concessions in the second quarter.

Given this situation, in the next April and May, the panel price negotiation will become extremely difficult. According to the panel maker’s requested panel price, it is also lower than the low point of the previous cycle, IHS expects not to Any panel maker is willing to take financial losses.

Therefore, there may be panel makers to readjust the utilization rate of the production line or adjust the production capacity so that the panel price will not be lower than the cost. At the same time, the risk of supply chain interruption cannot be ignored. Also, the price war has already started, especially 65 TVs. , Lower sales prices are likely to drive the number of transactions in the second half of 2018. In addition, if the U.S. tariff problem is resolved, retailers may have to resume demand for the second quarter.

5. China's May holiday sales are hard to find good AUO: will show negative growth

The mainland market has monthly sales promotions, resulting in a traditional May Day holiday promotion. Under the influence of sales diversion, AUO expects that the upcoming May 1 holiday biweekly sales will show negative growth. Nonetheless, it will continue to be promoted. Under the circumstance, it will help speed up inventory and sales will be stable. It is a good thing for the overall development of the market. In terms of supply and demand, AUO’s general manager Cai Guoxin stated that, in terms of demand, TV sales are not as good as at the end of 2017 and Yuanchun Holidays. It is expected that there will be sports events in 2018. In addition to the continuous promotion in the first half of the year, it is expected to accelerate the adjustment of inventory. The first quarter is the time for new products to be listed. It is expected that there will be stocking effect during the peak season in the second half of the year. The total size of AUO for 2018 is expected to be large. The outlook for the trend has not changed. In the face of stable application, it is expected that the demand area for panel will increase by 6~8% in 2018. In terms of supply side, Cai Guoxin said that in 2018, panel makers will continue to expand new production capacity, but the new generation of The production line requires a long learning curve, while the existing production line has advantages in terms of product specifications, process conversion, yield, and production efficiency. The new panel production line in 2018 is effective. The contribution of production capacity remains to be seen. AUO will accelerate technological upgrading and at the same time increase the competitiveness of its products. If stocks can be successfully converted in the first half of the year, AUO believes that the full year supply and demand in 2018 will be stable and healthy. In the first quarter of television sales, Cai Guoxin stated that the average TV size continued to increase in the first quarter, and sales volume and sales area showed positive growth. Developed markets such as North America, Western Europe, etc., sales in the first quarter remained stable, average size Compared with the same period in 2017, it has grown by more than 1 .. However, in terms of the mainland, due to the continuous promotion of online and offline sales in the mainland market since the end of March, the results of the monthly and monthly promotions, AUO expects the two weeks of the May holiday. TV sales will show negative growth. However, in the case of continuous promotions, it will also speed up inventory, sales will be stable, and it will be a good thing for the overall market development. In emerging Asia, Cai Guoxin pointed out that India’s machine tariffs increase. Overall sales remained flat; In Latin America, there was a demand for replacement, and TV size grew by more than two points. In the first quarter, sales volume and area grew by double digits. Overall, the first quarter was pushed by the average size. , Sales volume and area showed positive growth. Looking forward to the second quarter, due to the demand of the World Cup, inventory deceleration also accelerated, and the demand is expected to be stable and healthy. In terms of inventory, Cai Guoxin said that TV inventory is slightly higher due to the mainland's monthly promotion. ~2 weeks, currently about 8 to 9 weeks; North America has a high level of TV inventory on some dimensions, other areas are normal, at a water level of 6~8 weeks. In addition, LCD monitors have a normal inventory of about 3 -4 weeks; Notebook computer inventory is also within the range of health, about 5 to 6 weeks. Mobile phones, because full-screen products have become mainstream in the market, 16:9 aircraft inventory decline, new models are gradually stocked, Overall, the level of mobile phone inventory is healthy. The new machine equipped with LTPS panel has begun to exert force in the first quarter, because the new machine will drive the development of AUO's LTPS panel production capacity. AUO's Kunshan 6th generation LTPS plant, It was officially mass-produced in November 2016. It was fully loaded at the end of the third quarter of 2017 and the beginning of the fourth quarter. The factory is mainly targeted at medium and high-end applications such as In-Cell Touch, high-screen ratio, etc. Step-by-step notebook computer panels, hoping to meet customers' stricter requirements on high-end products Demanding demand. The market is concerned whether AUO intends to expand LTPS production capacity. AUO stated that it will increase its existing capacity efficiency through production technology and intelligent manufacturing capacity. Whether there will be expansion plans or not, AUO adopts Smart Investment method. , don't invest only for investment. DIGITIMES

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