From another angle, we can interpret the decline of this blue-chip white horse, and the main fund will not easily leave the market completely. The purpose of short-selling is to do more, but it is only necessary to pull out the bottom. After all, the blue-chip white horse has seen a huge increase last year, and it needs to be safe. To make space up, let's head down.
Today is the last trading day in April, but the market has given value investors a punch. Blue-chip white horses have announced bright annual reports and quarterly reports. However, because of Gree’s non-profit bonus plan, blue-chip white horse stocks fell. The value investors couldn't read clearly. Why did the market choose to abandon blue chips and white horses? What is the logic behind this? The author tries to analyze it.
On the evening of the 25th, in the expectation of hundreds of thousands of shareholders, Gree announced a brilliant annual report, with a record earnings per share of 3.72 yuan. Net profit increased by 44.87% year-on-year. However, contrary to the expectations of all shareholders, Dong Mingzhu did not have cash. Dividends immediately triggered a loss. All Gree related groups exploded on the pan. Many people came up with an angry video of Dong Mingzhu at the Gree shareholders meeting in 2016. 'I won't give you dividends for five years. What can you do about me? 'This year it is really not red. It also shows Dongjie's arrogance and arbitrariness.
In fact, at the moment Gree sought to convert into a shareholder meeting held by Yinlong, the veto of the Yinlong motion was rejected, which deepened the gap between the shareholders and Dongjie. Today, Gree and Gree, who were more than ten years ago, are not the same day. On the other hand, Dong Jie’s hand is holding a hundred billion dollars. If there is any mistake in investing, what Gree may bring will be a disaster. Many companies die in blind expansion and diversification. Past lives do not forget. This reminds me of the fact that China Ping An invested in Fortis Bank in 2007. Since then, China Ping An has accumulatively invested RMB 23.87 billion (US$ 2.78 billion) in the Fortis Group since October 2007. The sharp drop in stock prices and the subsequent fall in the value of Ping An’s investment have shrunk by more than 95%. This overseas investment, which made China Ping An excited, became a nightmare. Fortis dropped from 19 euros during Ping An’s investment to 2008. EUR 0.93 in the last trading day of the year. This bitter lesson led to Ping An spent at least 5 years to digest. It also led to the long-term slump in Ping An's stock price.
Ping An and Fortis's grudges and enmities are a huge reminder of the cost: In the case of the financial crisis has not subsided, how Chinese companies more rationally formulate their overseas expansion strategy? In the global market is being rushed, messy again In the new era of definition, Chinese companies should learn to choose, not blindly attack. Gree now has a heavy hand, and it is at the seal of the transition, and it is in the hands of the whole body. Gree's plan for red exclusion, from the reading of the annual report is In order to reserve enough reserves for future capital expenditures, shareholders, especially small and medium-sized shareholders, may be more accustomed to paying dividends. The use of nearly 100 billion yuan in cash cannot determine the certainty of future use, especially investment semiconductors in the annual report. The wording caused a lot of conjecture and doubt. For fear of Gree divorcing from the main business to diversify. This also led to many paragraphs, some companies that do not really want to be semiconductor chips, just have a concept up to heaven, and really want to be semiconductor The chip's decline has stopped, the reason for the low limit is to really want to do chips. This is simply a great irony. No. 25 Gree's annual report conference call At the meeting, the management explained some shareholders' questions.
Many people believe that the lack of dividends is the main cause of the collapse of Gree. The author believes that this is not the reason. Instead, it is a short-sighted and purposeful action. Rumors that Gree's plunge when China's peace replaced the secretary of the party committee quickly spread across the Internet. China Ping An 26 fell more than 3%, and the 27th consecutive slump fell more than 7%, falling below 60 yuan. To say that these two declines seem to be far-fetched, the 27th Erie’s low limit is even more invisible. Understand that, from the annual report and the quarterly report, Yili’s performance has increased by more than 20%, and the dividends are appropriate. There is no reason to fall, but it has fallen below the limit.
The author combing the performance of blue-chip white horses for 4 months in 2018 found that after the Chinese New Year, mainstream funds are slowly leaving the bank. The bank real estate sector is a typical main fund gathering place. When the PE is only as low as 7 times, it still costs out. For example, with Industrial Bank as an example, the current valuation is only 4.7 times PE, and there is still no funds to care for it. Even holding more than 1 trillion orders, the performance is highly certain, and the Chinese building with a growth rate of more than 20% is also Abandon the funds, PE is only 7 times. Is the main fund eyelids? Can't see gold everywhere?
No, I believe that the logic behind is still cautious about many uncertainties in the future, especially the Sino-US trade war. Whether or not a compromise can be reached at the end is uncertain. Geopolitics and the sustainability of the entire world economy can be sustained. Exchange Rate Policy Factors such as this all caused great disruptions to the operation of the stock market in 2018. Funds are profitable, but they also need safety. In the absence of a sense of security, funds will be withdrawn. Therefore, the valuation advantage of blue-chip white horses lies in The evacuation of the funds was ruthlessly overwhelmed. The market was such that capital came into the market and stocks went up. Funds left the market and stocks fell. Now the most tangled is the value investors, who have to endure such drastic fluctuations and valuation errors. After all, our market is still an emerging market, and the immature performance is to chase and kill, and muddy sand.
However, from another point of view, this round of blue-chip white horses' fall will be explained. The main funds will not leave the market easily and completely. The purpose of short-selling is to continue to do more, but it is only necessary to pull out the bottom. After all, the blue-chip white horses rose a great deal last year. Since the upward space is small, then it is downward. Recently, Maotai is the typical type of main shipment. In the first quarter, the number of shareholders increased by more than 10,000, indicating that many retail investors chased into the top of 700 yuan, and the main force naturally lost the chips. For retail investors, this is the medium-term reason for the weakness of Maotai's recent trend. It has nothing to do with the performance. This market is the money to speak. Once someone withdraws first, it will inevitably cause a chain reaction. Stamping is inevitable. Many funds, especially private equity funds, have The stop loss line, which touches the stop loss, also passively closes the position, which is why the blue chip white horse stocks fell.
Therefore, I believe that if we really follow the concept of value investment, we should dare to marry gold. When Mr. Market makes mistakes, all you have to do is to analyze calmly and decisively to find quality companies that have been wrongly killed by the market and buy decisively. After all, this is a bargain. There are not many opportunities.