The rise of battery companies has laid a certain technical foundation for the electric vehicle revolution in China. However, the electric vehicle industry must really go beyond the German super-day and require further technical research and timely industrialization.
The development of electric vehicles in China is about to enter its tenth year. As the battery of the electric vehicle's heart, its industrial structure has seen the advent of two-day ice.
In 2017, the world’s fifth-largest power battery sales, China’s third-largest battery sales company, Shenzhen Waterma Battery Co., Ltd.’s parent company, Warnevolen (300116.SZ), blew up 2 billion yuan in debt in early April, and the overall debt reached 221.38. In addition, many small and medium-sized power battery companies have collapsed under cost pressure. On the other hand, Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL), which ranked first in global power battery sales in 2017, successfully met in early April. , Valuation of up to more than 130 billion yuan.
In addition to internal shuffling, what is the competitiveness of China's new energy vehicles in the competitive landscape of Japanese and Korean companies in the global market? Is there a chance to achieve overtaking? Recently, Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Electric Vehicle 100 Executive Vice Chairman Ouyang Minggao accepted an interview with a reporter from Caijing. He said that the bottom line of China's electric vehicle technology has already been formed. There may be a lithium iron phosphate battery at the bottom, and there is also a new generation of lithium ion battery.
China's power battery attack and defense
Caijing: What is the development direction of power batteries in China?
Ouyang Minggao: In the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, Lithium Iron Phosphate Lithium-Ion Ion Battery was developed. In the 12th Five-Year Plane, ternary Lithium-Ion Lithium-ion batteries were developed. In the thirteenth five-year plan, high-nickel ternary positive electrodes and silicon-carbon negative electrode Li-ion batteries are being developed.
"Finance": The domestic research of lithium iron phosphate battery is mature? What are the advantages and disadvantages of Sanyuan lithium battery compared with lithium iron phosphate?
Ouyang Minggao: Lithium iron phosphate battery is the technical bottom line of the electric vehicle revolution. Although the specific capacity is lower than the three yuan lithium battery, but the lithium iron phosphate battery technology is mature, rich materials, controllable cost, high safety. Currently advanced iron phosphate Lithium battery, has achieved 500 km driving range on Tengshi electric car, taking into account safety and economy.
Lithium iron phosphate and ternary are different cathode materials for lithium batteries. Sanyuan Li-ion batteries achieve higher specific energy, but they still have problems such as safety, raw material costs, and service life. The improvement of technology threshold is to encourage technological advancement. The safety requirements for lithium-ion batteries are also higher.
Caijing: Sanyuan Lithium Battery is now considered to be a mainstream power battery line. Many companies are turning to higher-energy, more complex three-element battery production. What is the current status of China's ternary lithium battery technology? where?
Ouyang Minggao: The current research and development of battery samples with a specific energy of up to 300 Wh/kg is a ternary NCM811+ lithium-ion battery with a silicon carbon anode, but safety is particularly challenging due to overcharge safety. In 2020, 811 cathode, silicon The carbon negative electrode, liquid electrolyte combination may become mainstream products (also some Japanese and South Korean battery experts believe that the 622 positive electrode may be a better choice from the perspective of comprehensive performance balance).
The goal of industrialized three yuan soft pack battery reaching 300 Wh/kg in 2020 is not a problem. The core is that once the large-scale production of industrialization is implemented, raw materials, production processes, etc. can meet the demand. After the industrialization of lithium ion battery 811, Limited by the positive electrode material. From an industrial point of view, it would be very difficult to achieve a specific energy of 350 Wh/kg.
Caijing: Is Nickelization a Development Trend?
Ouyang Minggao: High nickelation is currently a trend, mainly to reduce the dependence on cobalt, so that the cost can be controlled. The decline in the use of cobalt is an inevitable trend.
"Financials": Will China follow the development path of Matsushita in Japan? For example, development of a cylindrical lithium ion battery of 18650.
Ouyang Minggao: Panasonic 18650 has a small capacity, so it is easier to achieve a high specific energy index. A small battery can avoid uneven material, polarization and other problems after volume amplification. However, because the electrolyte is easy to dry, the service life is relatively short. However, China will not blindly follow Panasonic's research path. The choice of materials is also different. China is a nickel-cobalt-manganese, and Panasonic is a nickel-cobalt-aluminum. The safety of nickel-cobalt-aluminum is not well controlled, and manganese is relatively more stable.
Caijing: Will lithium-ion batteries be the mainstream line in the medium term?
Ouyang Minggao: Lithium-ion batteries will always be the main products in the medium term and will not be easily overturned. However, both positive and negative electrodes and electrolytes may change. In addition, lithium air, lithium sulfur and so on are full of uncertainties in the automotive field. The prospect of industrialization remains to be seen.
The advantages and disadvantages of China's lithium battery technology
"Finance": At present, the world's lithium battery, China, Japan and South Korea have the right to speak, how is this situation formed?
Ouyang Minggao: It is mainly because China, Japan and South Korea have an industrial base for lithium batteries. Japan and South Korea need not say that China’s industry base starts with mobile phone batteries. When lithium battery technology emerges, most of the world’s car makers are investigating fuel. Batteries are not optimistic about the prospects of power batteries. China has just started researching fuel cells, but because there is no industrial basis for fuel cells, there is a big gap between basic materials and membrane electrodes and the United States and Japan. Later, we repeatedly compared domestic industries. Advantages and characteristics of the transportation system, proposed the "pure electric drive" strategy with lithium battery first behavioral characteristics, and finally it was in the same camp with Japan and South Korea, and it was the world leader in the industrialization of new energy electric vehicles.
In Europe and America, it is very difficult for large-scale lithium-electric companies to emerge. The main reason is that because of the late start, the industrial base is weak.
Caijing: Why does China's industrial advantage and transportation system contribute to the development of lithium?
Ouyang Minggao: Japan’s Toyota has been developing hybrid power on the basis of fuel engines. At the time, in formulating the first two five-year plans for new energy vehicles in China, it also tracked Toyota’s focus on hybrid power as a key driver for domestic backbone auto manufacturers. The research and development of the mixed power. By 2008, the performance of domestic hybrid vehicles, especially hybrid cars, was not ideal.
At the same time, lithium-ion battery technology has made breakthrough progress since 2007, replacing nickel-metal hydride batteries in a short period of time, making it possible to develop pure electric. From hybrid to fuel cells, Toyota is actually trying to raise the bar for technology. Ensure competitive advantage.
China's transportation system has a motorized basis, and high-speed rail, electric bicycles, and electric public transportation have made the Chinese society an electrified travel feature. At the same time, the integration technology of pure electric vehicles is relatively difficult, so China is suitable for pure electric power. Technical breakthroughs and Applicable scenes, this is the main reason for the rapid development of pure electricity.
Caijing: What is the level of China's lithium battery talent reserve and research in the world?
Ouyang Minggao: I read a piece of information. In the past 10 years, there were about 1 million international papers related to materials research in the world, and 40% in mainland China and Taiwan, and twice as much in the Chinese mainland as in the United States. A considerable part of material research is Battery-related. Most of the batteries studied in the United States are also Chinese. There is a huge potential for research and development of lithium batteries in China.
Caijing: Is China's lithium high-end capacity insufficient?
Ouyang Minggao: High-end production capacity is a common problem faced by all industries in China. However, China's battery industry has a high proportion of high-end talents and its technological innovation is active. For example, Ningde's annual output value was RMB 20 billion with over 100 doctoral degrees. The automakers have an annual production value of 50 billion yuan. Only with such high personnel structure and proportion is completely different from other industries.
Caijing: At present, the consistency of the domestic lithium battery industry is relatively low. Will it introduce the industry standard?
Ouyang Minggao: China's lithium battery standard has established strict safety standards and has clear indicators. The international standard for lithium batteries passed recently adopts the Chinese standard. The safety and specific energy of lithium batteries are a contradiction. With technology With the development of processes, lithium battery companies will increase the technical threshold by raising the specific energy index. The specific energy is an important and effective baton that regulates changes in the production structure. The low-end production capacity in the market will certainly be eliminated.
"Financials": Ningde era won the public, Mercedes-Benz's global order form, and is a price higher than LG6%. Why do these foreign car companies intend to buy China's high-priced battery?
Ouyang Minggao: First of all, the quality of products in the Ningde era is comparable to that of LG, and sometimes even better than that of LG. Second, Europe does not have large-scale lithium manufacturers. Third, China is the largest single market for these car companies, such as the sales of Volkswagen worldwide. 40%; Finally, the integrity of China's lithium power industry chain is better than that of South Korea, and its industrial scale and development potential are also higher than in Korea.
Who can break the next-generation battery
Caijing: At present, the most popular ternary cathode material is lithium-rich manganese. Why does it become a hot spot, and what are the advantages and disadvantages?
Ouyang Minggao: Lithium-manganese-rich cathode materials are the research hotspots in the world. Lithium-rich cathode materials have theoretically high specific discharge capacities of up to 400mAh/g. The specific energy of batteries can reach 400Wh/kg. Can reduce the dependence on cobalt and nickel, reduce costs, especially cobalt. Recently, Professor Xia Dingguo of Peking University synthesized a 400 mAh/g positive electrode in the laboratory, but the life of lithium-rich manganese-based battery is relatively short.
Now, 300 watt-hour/kg lithium-manganese-based lithium batteries have been made at home and abroad, but their life span is several hundred times, and they still cannot meet the requirements of automobiles. Further efforts are needed. The lithium-manganese-based self-voltage decays rapidly. On the need to seek improvements. Second, the need for a lithium-manganese-based electrolyte with a wider range of matching voltage, such as solid state.
Caijing: Is there a timetable for the industrialization of lithium-rich manganese?
Ouyang Minggao: In the national special project, it is necessary to realize the industrialization of 811 yuan lithium battery by 2020. At the same time, lithium-manganese-rich base continues to go deep into basic research, because the relevant project has not been completed yet and it is impossible to reach the realization industry at present. The accurate time point for the fight will be around 2025.
The comprehensive comparison of lithium-rich lithium batteries with high hopes will be equivalent to 811, or even better, and the specific energy should be higher than 811. Durability is the key factor of comparison. If it can successfully improve durability, lithium-rich materials will become Lithium battery new industrial cathode material.
"Finance": The big car companies will be solid and all-solid-state battery as the next step in research and development, R & D difficulties where?
Ouyang Minggao: Although research on solid electrolytes has been a hot topic, to realize all-solid-state batteries, the core is to solve the interface between solid and solid, and it is still necessary to add liquid electrolytes. In the next 5 to 10 years, the proportion of liquid electrolytes will gradually decrease. The trend from partial solid to semi-solid and to full solid state is presented. Even if all solid state cannot be achieved by then, it will be close to full solid state.
Once all-solid-state is successfully developed, not only is it highly safe, it will also completely change the battery's practice. Because the solid state solves the problem of short-circuiting the liquid battery, the battery can be internally connected in series to increase the specific energy. At present, the durability should be guaranteed. Under the premise of increasing the specific energy as much as possible, and the solid-state battery also has the potential of fast charging. Many related research institutions and enterprises in China are studying solid-state lithium battery technology.
"Finance": What is the status of research and planning for solid-state batteries in Japan?
Ouyang Minggao: Japan’s Toyota demonstrated solid-state lithium-ion batteries. They claimed to achieve industrialization in 2022 or 2023. However, the specific energy has not yet been increased, so the energy after industrialization will not be too high.
Can fuel cells replace lithium batteries?
Caijing: From pure electricity to fuel cells, what are the main problems in the development of such batteries?
Ouyang Minggao: China's fuel cell research has made great progress. Fuel cell vehicles have begun to be industrialized in local markets. Fuel cell system performance is optimized. The technology will be relatively mature by about 2025. If large-scale production is realized, the cost will also be decline.
At present, more important issues are hydrogen energy technologies, ie, front-end hydrogen fuels, such as preparation, transportation, storage, and compression. At present, everyone is only paying attention to the fuel cell system itself. But hydrogen-related technologies and infrastructure It is not ideal. For example, the following problems exist in vehicle-mounted hydrogen storage technology: Carbon fiber has high cost, low weight of hydrogen storage, and relatively large energy loss. Therefore, the key is to deepen the basic research and technological development related to hydrogen energy, and related infrastructure. The construction.
Caijing: Fuel cell subsidies have not been reduced. Do policymakers think that fuel cell development is more realistic?
Ouyang Minggao: From the perspective of the country’s entire energy system (not just from the perspective of vehicles), hydrogen fuel cell technology really needs to accelerate development, which is in line with the needs of China's energy revolution. If the energy requirements reach a certain level, lithium batteries will not be able to Satisfy.
However, I also disagree that hydrogen is the ultimate energy and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are the ultimate eco-friendly vehicles. Hydrogen and electricity are energy carriers. There is no 'ultimate' statement. Small cars have lower energy requirements. Lithium batteries may play a greater role. Therefore, in the case of new energy vehicles, the future of fuel and electricity will be symbiotic.
Caijing: For passenger cars, where are the cost balances for future fuel cells and pure electric vehicles?
Ouyang Minggao: It is considered that by 2025, for a mid-size or higher passenger car, 350 kilometers of mileage may become the balance point for choosing fuel cell vehicles and battery electric vehicles. The mileage is over 350 kilometers and the fuel cell cost is better; within 350 kilometers, Lithium battery advantage is stronger.
Now China's developed high-speed rail network can fully meet the people's long-distance travel, so the renewal of ultra-long cruising range electric vehicles is not much. In the future hydrogen energy development to a certain extent, fuel cells can be used as a lithium-ion battery range extender, Increase mileage by electro-electricity mixing and reduce battery usage.
