The propylene material market of plastic raw materials has recently returned to the downward trend, but there has been no major quarterly slump in the first quarter. Prices have been slow and the space is relatively small. The reason is that some device overhauls have certain support for the market, but polypropylene Futures continued to fall, and the demand side remained weak. Looking ahead to May, polypropylene is still the most important point to be concerned about, but there is a large uncertainty in the market. The propylene market will continue to follow the pace of polypropylene.
Since 2018, the propylene raw material market for plastic raw materials has continued to fluctuate widely. Whether it was a sharp fall from early February to mid-March, or from mid-March to mid-April, the price of propylene has reached or even surpassed 1,000 yuan. T. The market has been screaming that the familiar propylene market, which has soared and fell, has returned! In mid-April, the price of propylene returned to the price at the beginning of the year. The propylene market experienced a cycle. However, the market has recently returned to the downward trend, but The wave fell, and the propylene plant seemed to be 'not willing'.
Specifically analyze the reasons for the changes in the market of plastic raw materials for propylene after the year, and the main reason is nothing less than changes in the supply and demand side.
On the supply side, the maintenance of propylene units continued to increase after the end of the year. According to statistics, from 2018 to the present, propylene's overhauled production capacity has reached 4.855 million tons. However, despite the numerous overhauls of equipment, it seems that the general influence on market conditions is limited. The price of Shandong propylene is from 8,760 yuan. / Ton fell to 7250 yuan / ton period, the supply side of the market's supporting role is basically not reflected, or that the supply side of the support is completely offset by the weakness brought about by the weak demand side.
The supply side has limited influence on the propylene raw material market, which shows that the main influence factor is still on the downstream demand side. Since the beginning of the year, market participants have always paid attention to and obeyed the terminal demand, but the terminal demand has been difficult to significantly improve. .
Recently, the price of plastic raw materials for the propylene market has continued to decline. The mainstream price of Shandong propylene has dropped from RMB 8,200/ton to RMB 7,900/ton. However, unlike the previous price drop, the price of this wave has been slow, space is small, and the propylene plant Will be very willing to save the price. As we mentioned earlier, the maintenance of propylene equipment in the early stage has limited support for the market.
However, at present, due to the shutdown of the Beijing Bo and Shenchi mixed-hydrogen dehydrogenation plants, the supply of propylene in Shandong has been reduced; in some parts of the PDH plant in East China, the supply has also been relatively tight. The supply side has gradually supported the market. The propylene inventory pressure is relatively controllable, so the willingness to decline in prices is not high. However, the most important factor in this wave of propylene propylene prices still lies in the demand side. Polypropylene futures prices continue to fall, and the recent decline in futures prices has also increased, for the propylene market. The bad effects are also accelerating.
In April, the market’s attention has been extended to May. In May, the supply of propylene for plastic raw materials will increase, and the companies that were suspended in the early stages will resume production. Therefore, the supply side will have a negative impact on the market.
In terms of demand, the polypropylene market is still the key, but the fundamentals of the polypropylene market are relatively turbulent. On the one hand, the polypropylene market still has inventory pressure. Whether explicit or invisible inventory needs time to digest; and futures are facing delivery, or Will form a certain negative impact on the market.
On the other hand, many polypropylene units have been overhauled in the near future, and most of them have been equipped with propylene units. From May to June, there are still many polypropylene units that are about to be overhauled; the supply of polypropylene is reduced, which may be good for the market. Judging from the factors, in May, the plastic raw material propylene market will not be able to continue the previous ups and downs, and the price fluctuation space will narrow. As for the specific trend, the key is still polypropylene, and the uncertainty is still relatively large.