It seems self-evident that the reason for supporting full-scale chip deployment has been self-evident. After a few days of public opinion bombing, a street child can catch you in a clever way and tell you that for the sake of industrial security, for the sake of national security, China will earn high profits in order to embark on the high-end industrial chain. Added value. However, these statements are really no problem?
False panic
This time the ZTE incident, many people said that the chip was stuck, the industry is not safe. In fact, on the contrary, this incident proved that the commercial chip supply is safe and secure.
The United States does not understand the complexity and political nature behind the ZTE incident. However, even so they still only sanctioned ZTE and did not involve other manufacturers. This is because the United States has completely cut off the supply of chips in the short term, not only to the U.S. economy, but also to the U.S. economy. The devastating blow to the global economy is not politically feasible.
If the global economy established on the basis of the information industry is regarded as an ecological environment, then in this ecosystem, the creatures at the top of the food chain are powerful, but the plants and bacteria at the bottom of the food chain, without them, the ecology will be immediate. Was destroyed.
American politics
'U.S. Straightest Arrow'
Luce: It should be certain that it was the Trump administration who appointed the former FBI director Miller as the special prosecutor for the Russian case. If you judge the politics of a country from how to respond to high-level crimes, the United States is a textbook.
In fact, after the deepening of globalization, the scope of sanctions has been reduced from the state to the company and even individuals. On the one hand, this is the development of information technology, which allows sanctions to strike with precision. On the other hand, it is due to the increase in the degree of globalization. This is not exactly the so-called 'I like you (Americans) cannot understand, but must also join us in building socialism'?
Therefore, the international division of labor led by the comparative advantage is bound to each other and provides a stable mechanism. The so-called card-neck, the blockade of China's chips, the threat of China's industrial security, and the humiliation are, to a large extent, a misunderstanding. In the beginning, this The misunderstandings are understandable, but afterwards, misunderstandings were ignited to a certain degree and used.
In the long run, the international division of labor brings more profits to capital, which drives globalization and forms an ecological dependence. Trump also just wanted Apple to build plants in the United States, and he did not want to violate the capital will and put the entire mobile phone production system into effect. All moved back to the United States. The global interest model is entrenched. For the purpose of blocking the chips for political purposes to destroy China's mobile phones, the electronics industry may be minimal.
Therefore, there are no urgent needs in terms of short-term and long-term security from the perspective of industrial safety. For chips for national defense use, according to related reports, the self-sufficiency rate of most military electronic components in China is close to 80%. For civilian consumption, even in countries that are currently in war with the United States, Apple phones and computers can be bought.
Of course, the long term cannot be based solely on safety. At present, 54% of the world's chips are exported to China. Each year, chip imports reach more than US$200 billion, which exceeds oil and bulk commodities. It is China’s largest import commodity. Therefore, many people hope that The government has invested heavily in chips, going to the high end of the industry chain, and making money on the international market. This desire is good, but we hope that relying on government investment and catching up in the short term, we will encounter the following problems.
Can the government do a good job in venture capital?
From the point of view of making money, the market will naturally choose the best route and timing. Chips are not cost-free national projects, but require mass production, face competition in the market, which requires the accumulation of the entire industry chain, not overnight. Many people criticized the example of disqualification of the '10s' in the past and used the current large aircraft as a counter-example. Little did they know that in the past few decades, China’s manufacturing industry has been incomparable.
Just these few days, Academician Ni Guangnan’s assistant of the year, participated in the article of Ms. Liang Ning of Ark CPU, Evermore Office, NC thin client and Linux operating system. She concludes that government agencies are too afraid to fail. Therefore, we couldn't come up with a chip. The approach she gave was that 'the state pays money, sowing seeds, spreading 100 billion yuan into the market for a year, and even spreading it for five years. Allowing large areas to fail'.
However, market innovation appears to have been piled up by failure, but in essence, it is not due to failure of 'allowance'. On the contrary, it is everyone who does his best to avoid failure, but in order to make money, he has to try to bear it. The risk of failure. Every penny shared by a bicycle burns behind an investor who is afraid of failure, not a failed official.
A venture capitalist will certainly suffer a failure, but it will definitely not go to the market to invest in two, and it is necessary to do the best adjustments, interviews, market analysis, industry research, etc. Because it is responsible for the money of the shareholders and their own money. Responsibility. This responsibility will be implemented on specific incentive mechanisms and even require decision-makers to follow the investment.
If an official starts a venture, he must have an assessment method for venture capital and an incentive mechanism for venture capital. At the same time, he also needs to cut off the source of power so that officials can use their power to promote the project they are investing. False prosperity. So is he still an official at this time?
The use of government-run ventures to allow failure will only result in large-scale doomed failures. Take new energy vehicle subsidies as an example, 72 of the 93 auto companies are involved in fraudulent subsidies, amounting to 9.27 billion yuan, such a large-scale long-term fraud. Subsidies, Finally, there is actually no criminal responsibility.
Therefore, the government’s fear of failure is immutable because it is the government’s essential character, not the market’s. As such, let Caesar’s return to Caesar, God’s return to God.
What are the prerequisites for obtaining an international market?
Most of the Chinese imported chips are exported after being made into finished products. This means that China needs a huge international market to digest chips, digest its own production capacity, and make its own chips to make money. It is also based on this huge market. However, There are many international preconditions for obtaining this market.
For example, market principles; for example, the ecology of “you have me, I have you” depends on each other; for example, you follow the convention; then, when China uses non-market methods to invest in chips, the entire industrial chain is concentrated in China, in the current international In an atmosphere of tight trade, it will lead to a rebound, leading to a shrinking of the international market. In the most extreme situation, if China and the United States and its allies confront each other in an all-out confrontation, then the supply of chips and the closure of the international market will have an impact on China. All are the same, the premise of the so-called independent chip to make money no longer exists.
This time, ZTE was sanctioned. China did not intend to retaliate against Apple. It was because of Apple's supply chain that Apple software developers and Apple Cloud were all domestic. Conversely, if there is a mobile phone production system, it is all autonomous. This type of mobile phone is the easiest target to attack and can only be sold domestically.
Under these conditions, it is a deeper condition. China's chip industry, there are objective institutional barriers. Apart from commercial trials and errors, in the ecology formed in a few decades, the difficulty of forming a new ecological environment, the easiest One of the reasons, you can ask yourself, do you believe that the information in the chat software can't be seen by the government? Of course, the United States also has these problems, but there is certainly a certain degree. One problem that the Chinese understand, the rest of the world People understand that. Therefore, China’s information industry, regardless of its hardness, will face significant obstacles to going global.
In fact, all of the above is not a prophecy but a fact.
What needs special emphasis is that all of the prerequisites are set in advance. Dissatisfaction with this point of view clearly points to the United States and actually refers to the world. This is not the relationship between China and the United States, but China and the world. Relationship.
Therefore, huge subsidies are not only inefficient, but are also likely to incur a rebound due to non-marketization. They will not help Chinese companies to make money internationally, but they will help.
Feelings and subsidies
The enthusiastic public opinion ultimately points to state financial subsidies.
In this wave of chip appeals, a large part of the industry’s insiders have a sincere feeling. Scientists and science and engineering intellectuals often have this feeling. With the progress of socialization and science, science involves funds. More and more, countries are required to provide huge support. To a certain extent, this makes science and engineering intellectuals more inclined to nationalism and call for national investment.
However, there are many emotions behind the greed of subsidy. In the face of any 'for national interests' discourse, the word country should be divided into more, more detailed, more specific concepts, because only in this way can Seeing the facts and truths concealed by the country's word. The country's making money in high-end industries is not precise. In fact, it is not the state but the chip industry. Industry elites make more money, and the people Do early venture investment.
It is not difficult to find a phenomenon in which entrepreneurs in the market generally do not have a strong ideological color. However, based on the fiscal budget, they will show feelings about the homeland and even put themselves in an ideological tone through public relations. This is equivalent to In terms of ideology, 'too big to fail'.
However, no matter what kind of feelings are ignored the main part of the money: the people.
The so-called rise and fall of the country is the responsibility of everyone. With the exception of passionate feelings, in the modern sense, the meaning of this statement is that in any country’s decision-making, citizens must bear the price. If the country wants to fight, you will lose your son or grandson. If the state wants to invest in chips, you will have to pay 200 more taxes, or 200 fewer medical treatments. Of course, this number is not much, but the place to spend money is not just this one, education, medical care, national defense, basics. Facilities construction, poverty alleviation, renovation of old houses.
In 1970, the Sister Zambian Mary Jucunda wrote a letter to NASA's Dr. Ernst Stuhlinger. In the letter, the nun asked: At present, there are so many children on the planet who can’t eat, how can he be willing to spend billions on a project far away on Mars? US Dollar? Dr. Ernst Stuhlinger returned a letter that was later named "Why Want to Explore the Universe?" and explained patiently.
How many children can be fed by a Mars spacecraft and how many leukemia children can be saved by a single chip? This question should be asked. It is precisely this kind of problem that can deter nationalism and blindly explore the feelings of the world. However, one Americans can patiently explain to an African Sister for their country's budget, but now, feelings seem to be overwhelming.
The public budget promoted by this emotional public opinion is not a blessing for the country. The national interest that a few people call out, the sea of stars, cannot overwhelm the science and prudent multi-discussion and balance. Not to mention, as mentioned earlier, many of the current Concepts are exaggerated words.