With the approaching of the traditional '6.30' grid-connected deadline, the PV market has finally begun to get rid of the decline in the first quarter, which is obviously picking up. The data shows that the price of polysilicon upstream has recently risen first, and downstream product demand has started to stabilize and pick up. Industry experts believe that this year' 6.30' is expected to have a scale of 7 GW to 8 GW before stimulating demand to continue to pick up in the second quarter. Considering that this year's leader plan calls for start-up in the first half of the year, it will be completed before the end of the year, coupled with PV poverty alleviation and distributed Demand continues to grow. Even after '6.30', the market is unlikely to cool significantly.
The data obtained by the reporter from the China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association’s Silicon Branch indicated that last week’s polysilicon prices continued to rise from the end of March to the beginning of April. The overall steady increase was slightly higher. The high price of Class 1 dense materials could be seen at 128,000 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction range was 12.4 yuan/ton to 126,000 yuan/ton. On the one hand, domestic polysilicon enterprises had full orders in April and there was no surplus silicon stocks. With the silicon material still in short supply, the bullish attitude gradually gained upper hand; On the other hand, due to the recent drop in the value-added tax rate, orders should be signed on a tax-inclusive or non-tax-inclusive basis, with disagreements between upstream and downstream. Despite this, transaction prices continue to rise slightly.
'Polysilicon companies are expected to start signing orders for May this week, and their trading volume will increase significantly, and the prices will continue to rise steadily and slightly.' Liu Jing, a research fellow at the Silicon Industry Branch, said that in April, China resumed normal production except for silicon equipment maintenance. In Malaysia, the polysilicon plant was overhauled for a whole month, which affected the supply of some imported materials. As a result, the overall supply of silicon materials decreased slightly, and demand continued to show an upward trend. The price of polysilicon is still expected to rise slightly in the short term.
Lv Jinbiao, vice president of GCL-Poly, was interviewed by Shanghai Daily on the '2018 Shanghai New Energy Distributed Investment and Finance Summit' sponsored by Energy One Yesterday. He said that recently the market has indeed picked up a trend, which is reflected in the rise in polysilicon prices. The price should go up. In particular, the market has been expecting that the distributed subsidies may be adjusted after June 30th. Before that, it is expected to trigger another wave of seizures. It is expected that the market will remain warm before the entire '6.30'.
One difference between this year and last year is that the leader plans to start work before June 30 and join the network before the end of the year. This will bring continuing demand for the component market in the second half of the year. In addition, PV poverty alleviation is also a big new one. Increase demand, coupled with the continued growth of the last year's growth, even after the '6.30', the market will not significantly cool down. ' Lu Jinbiao said.
Deng Xinkang, the new chief analyst of Anxin Electronics, also revealed to the reporter that the recent industry demand has clearly stabilized and picked up, especially since the arrival of downstream terminal demand in April has clearly recovered, which can also be verified from the recent stabilization and rebound of silicon material prices. Currently, single crystal The use of materials has increased from 125 yuan/kg to 128 yuan/kg, polycrystalline materials from 118 yuan/kg to 120 yuan/kg to 122 yuan/kg. He expects that there will be 7 GW before this year's '6.30'. With a scale of 8 GW, the industry demand in the second quarter is expected to continue to pick up.
The trend of wave-like development of photovoltaics from the off-season to warming is normal. At present, China's photovoltaic market still has room for growth in terms of production capacity and market demand. However, in the long-term, if the problems of energy storage systems cannot be solved, then the development It may be limited. 'Photovoltaic experts, Li Anding, executive director of the China Solar Energy Society, said in an interview with the Shanghai Daily that the future direction of the photovoltaic industry is smart micro-grid, smart power, smart power, internet of things, and smart city.
In his view, the recent photovoltaic warming is still related to technological advances, cost reductions, etc. If the technology does not improve, then this industry does not have much prospect. The industry itself is renewable, but the recovery does not mean that the photovoltaic market will once again burst Growth, that kind of 'sudden outbreak' is all hype.
For the industry's prospects, he said that compared with the original polysilicon, it is currently more promising for monocrystalline silicon. Among them, those with technological content, high efficiency, and less pollution will achieve better development. However, the cleaning process of the cell sheet is still certain. Contamination. In short, to introduce new technologies, we must not develop as extensively as we have done in the past. If companies are dedicated to the photovoltaic market, there will be great opportunities in the future. Of course, the competition is fierce. 'This industry is not rich. It tells stories. Effective'.
