Recently, the trade friction between China and the United States has been buzzing. Through this month's rise of smoke, everyone has also felt the impact on the polyethylene market. What do the two countries feel in the impact of polyethylene?
Speaking of this, it is still necessary to start with China’s “ban on expulsion”. The ban on China’s refusal to act as a global junkyard has had a more severe impact on the world. The most unsettled international countries are European and American countries. As early as the beginning of the year, the United States There are websites that make a sound, the United States is the world’s largest waste producer, and Oregon is known as “the leader of environmental protection in the United States”, and currently on a recycling yard in the state, it has accumulated 600 tons of garbage to be recycled. Since October 2017, the local area has been forced to land 800 tons of waste. Previously, most of the garbage in southern Oregon residents will be shipped to China. This practice, which has lasted for many years now, has been completely subverted. In the following, the waste reprocessing industry in Europe and the United States has been forced to transform and upgrade, and the EU Parliament, the European Union Council and the European Commission revised the Waste Legislation. In addition to the transformation and upgrading of the waste reprocessing industry, it also requires the reduction of the use of some plastic products. For example, requiring that food waste be halved in 2030, the revised legislative proposal sets clear targets for waste reduction.
With the continuous increase in the supply of polyolefins in the world, reducing the use of plastic products will inevitably put pressure on the consumption of new materials. From the perspective of the trade flow of polyolefin raw materials in the United States, US polyolefins are net exporters, and their supply sources Mainly exported to Canada, Western Europe and China. In 2017, about 12% of US exports were exported to the Chinese market. China is the third largest importer after Mexico and Canada.
From the perspective of US polyethylene supply, the prosperous development of the US shale gas revolution has promoted the revival of US chemical industry. The growth of polyethylene production capacity in the United States has accelerated. However, the reduction in the use of policies and the trade restrictions of exporting countries have made the United States’ The polyethylene market is facing the ambiguity of consumer direction. According to incomplete statistical data of Jinlian, the polyethylene production capacity will increase rapidly in 2017-2018. Among them, the high pressure difference involves high pressure production capacity of about 800,000 tons/year. It is also reported that Formosa Plastics USA A 625,000 tonne LDPE unit is being built in PointComfort, Texas.
For China, China imported about 155,000 tons of high pressure from the United States in 2017, ranked sixth among LDPE importers, about 6.5 percent of LDPE imports, and 3.1 percent of total LDPE consumption in China. With the continuous increase of production capacity, the self-sufficiency rate of domestic PE increases, and China can balance this gap through the increase of its own production and imports from other countries.
In this triumphant and defeated trade friction battle, its influence is also reflected in the first time through the market trend:
From the above, we can see that behind the trade frictions, the price of LDPE in China has risen, while the price of LDPE in the United States has dropped significantly. In the description of the LDPE market in the United States, the demand in the Americas market has slowed down, supply has increased, and inventory has risen. This is mainly due to Sino-US trade. As a result of the war, Asian demand was lower, export activity was difficult, and raw material prices fell. While the Chinese market's LDPE prices were higher, the market trading atmosphere was more active than before. Although this time the price trend has the hype factor of reduced supply from the United States, the domestic LDPE due to maintenance The reduction in supply caused by factors is also an important factor in the rise of domestic LDPE.
On the whole, the trade friction between China and the United States, China and the United States have different feelings. In the trend of the international LDPE market, this friction has a greater impact on the United States than China.