Li Yaqin, deputy general manager of Quzhi Consulting, said in an interview with a reporter from China Electronics News that now the price of LCD panels has entered a new round of down cycles, and the speed of decline is very fast. If the decline continues, panel makers will soon suffer losses. Even some will be eliminated.
If the two new lines of Huike are put into operation, it will increase the excess production capacity
According to Xie Qinyi, senior research director of IHS Markit, the LCD panel will be oversupply in 2018, and the panel maker will face the pressure of loss in the second quarter. In the next 2-3 years, panel makers will certainly improve by combining and reorganizing or closing the old line.
The alarm of overcapacity in TV LCD panels has been sounded. IHS analyst Wu Rongbing said in an interview with a reporter from China Electronics News that if Huike Zhengzhou 11th Generation Line and Mianyang 8.6 Generation Line can be successfully put into production, the pressure on TV LCD panel oversupply will be excessive. Bigger. But at present, TV is developing in the direction of larger size. If the market growth of 65 inches and above is strong, the large-size panel market is large enough to digest most of the capacity.
Hu Chunming, deputy secretary-general of China Optics and Optoelectronics Industry Association's Liquid Crystal Branch, pointed out that at present, the demand area for TV LCD panels in one year reaches more than 100 million square meters, and the optimistic estimate may reach 150 million square meters. However, even with an area of 150 million square meters of demand To calculate, the global TV LCD panel production capacity has exceeded demand.
According to the statistics of the LCD branch of the China Optics and Optoelectronics Industry Association, the actual effective supply of LCD TV panels in the world will be larger than the demand of 12~13%. In general, if the supply/demand ratio of LCD panels exceeds 10%, it will result in structural overcapacity. Will cause the industry to fall into a price war, the profit rate will continue to decline, and even the phenomenon of mergers, mergers and restructurings or bankruptcy will occur.
Li Yaqin pointed out that the current production line is continuously increasing and the price of LCD panels is rapidly declining. Overcapacity appears to be a foregone conclusion. Taking the price of 65-inch LCD panels as an example, the highest price point reached 410 US dollars last year, and now it has dropped to 270 US dollars, a decrease of nearly 52%. , And the price is still falling. Li Yaqin predicts that TV LCD panel makers will lose money in the third quarter at the latest.
In the face of overcapacity risks, why does the company provide overweight? Huike has a large number of display terminal OEM orders and is confident in its ability to digest itself. Hui Jing, vice president of Hui Ke, said in an interview with the China Electronics News reporter that even Temporary overcapacity in the market. Take the steel and coal industries as an example. Large-capacity enterprises will not have any problems, and all of them will fall. These are small businesses. Therefore, Wikko is constantly building new production lines and hopes to create a large amount of production capacity in a short period of time. I will not be a small company that will fall.
Overcapacity may lead to homogeneous homogenous competition
In fact, careful observation shows that at present, only China's mainland is still building 8.6 and 10.5 lines, and other countries or regions have almost stopped investing in new LCD panel production lines. Ultimately, excess capacity will most likely evolve into China. Homogeneity competition between mainland panel companies.
According to Li Yaqin, most Taiwanese panel companies in China and Korean panel companies do not follow the investment in new production lines. Instead, they transform their production lines through technological advantages, improve product quality, and focus their products on mid- to high-end markets. This approach has strong anti-risk capabilities. Once the overcapacity occurs, it will be less affected. At the same time, it is also easy to transfer to new technologies. In fact, both LGD and Samsung Display have shifted their focus to OLED. Panel companies in Taiwan are promoting the industrialization of Micro-LED panels.
China's mainland LCD panel companies have achieved first-mover advantage by investing in the first two 10.5-generation lines, and will soon dominate the LCD panel production capacity. At the same time, they are actively developing 8K, flexible AMOLED, printed OLED, Micro-LED, etc. A new type of display technology. China's panel companies should hold on to the advantages of the ultra-high generation line, and timely and moderately invest in new generations of high-generational lines in accordance with market conditions. At the same time, we must continue to improve the ultra high-definition video industry ecosystem and explore new applications. Destruction of a large number of LCD panel production paving roads. Eventually, the new production line construction and market demand can be continuously and positively interactive. The production capacity advantage will be continuously transformed into market advantages, improve the industrial ecology, and avoid entering the homogenization competition.
Call for the Concentration of Superior Resources to Stop Blind Investment
At present, the main body of panel industry in China's mainland, the layout of production lines is decentralized, which hinders the improvement and agglomeration of competitiveness.
However, the focus of the LCD panel industry is shifting to mainland China. Local governments do not want to miss this piece of fat. They all want to introduce LCD panel production line projects. Experts point out that the actual investment target of LCD panel production line is local government, investing in a local LCD panel production line. The investment is at least 50%. If the local government does not contribute, it may be difficult to build a higher generation line.
Some industries that are not very suitable for the development of the LCD panel industry have also begun to build lines. An industry review expert took Quzhou 8.6 as an example to point out that Chenzhou is not suitable for building a line. There are industrial talents in the local development of new display business, and there is a shortage of supporting industrial chains. The problem was that the production line was also the only LCD panel production line in the area. However, the project was eventually passed.
At that time, the investment boom in the photovoltaic industry across the country triggered a vicious competition in the final industry, making most photovoltaic companies large but not strong. If local governments disregard the industry development status and blindly invest in liquid crystal production lines, they may repeat the mistakes of the photovoltaic industry. Experts stressed that local governments The blind investment of the government may destroy the development prospects of an industry.
Wu Shengwu, deputy director of the Department of Electronics of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out on April 8 at the work conference of the national electronic information industry in 2018 that panel companies were encouraged to integrate industrial resources through investment, mergers, reorganization, etc. to achieve further concentration of the main body. To the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing- Hubei and other industrial agglomerations, improve regional supporting systems, realize inter-regional dislocation development, and cultivate world-class industrial clusters.
Of course, it is impossible to determine whether the Huizhou Zhengzhou 11th-generation line and the Mianyang 8.6-generation line project can actually be landed on the basis of two investment agreements. It is likely that there will be a miscarriage.
Two years ago, the company also officially signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with the Kunming City and Yuzhong New District on the construction of the 11th generation thin film transistor liquid crystal display and complete machine project. According to the agreement plan, the ground was broken in March 2017, but Huike Kunming The 11th-generation line project failed to be completed.
Hang Jingqiang disclosed to reporters that for Wai Keer, the 11th-generation line project in Zhengzhou has already replaced Kunming's 11th-generation line project. 'Zhengzhou 11th-generation line project has been under development for two months', but in related news disclosed to the public. , Zhengzhou 11th-generation line project only has a definite amount of investment, construction start time and planned production time are not disclosed.
At the same time, the agreement for the 8.6-generation line project signed by Huike and Mianyang was also turbulent. Some public sources pointed out that relevant leaders and relevant departments of Mianyang City had gone through 72 rounds of business negotiations with Waikiki Corporation for one and a half years.
Regardless of whether WFC's Zhengzhou 11th-generation line and Mianyang 8.6-generation line project can be successfully landed, panel companies and the industry should do a good job of avoiding the risk of overcapacity.