According to ABI Research, a market research company, by 2025, the number of consumer vehicles equipped with SAE L3 and L4 autopilot technology will reach 8 million vehicles. By that time, drivers will still have to stay in cars, but in some cases Has been able to fully pass the safety task to the car, until the SAE Level 5 level, human beings can completely escape the driving task.
On the other hand, this will also help drive the shipment of light detection and ranging (LiDAR) sensors that support the technology. It is expected that by 2025, there will be as many as 36 million LiDAR devices shipped. The market value is equivalent to 7.2 billion U.S. dollars.
ABI Research research analyst Shiv Patel said: 'As OEMs rapidly develop and deploy a variety of advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) kits, higher levels of automation will be the next step forward. Mainly between today's ADAS and more highly autonomous vehicles The sensor gap will be filled by adding LiDAR, which will help provide reliable obstacle detection and “synchronous positioning and map construction” (SLAM).
For conditional but highly automated consumer vehicle applications such as SAE Level 3 and Level 4, solid-state LiDAR solutions from companies such as Innoviz and LeddarTech are making a comeback that not only helps autopilot achieve more reliable sensing, but more importantly At the same time meet the strict pricing requirements set by the OEM.
It is estimated that by 2020, LiDAR devices for low-end and high-end solutions are expected to reach price points of between US$200 and US$750, respectively. Such a price point means that even if an autonomous vehicle has to configure multiple sensors, the automotive OEM is The willingness of high-end cars to use solid LiDAR solutions will also increase significantly.
In fully automated driving applications, such as reaching SAE Level 5, the automatic driving co-drive vehicle will be more expensive because it will not be deployed at all, while the traditional mechanical LiDAR solution has higher resolution and feels. With reliable performance, it is still ideal for automotive OEMs.
Companies targeting robotaxi applications do not care much about the average selling price (ASP) of vehicles. Their short-term goal is to “grab the land” in order to maximize the market share when the smart mobile market emerges.
In such market conditions, a race to compete first to eliminate drivers has emerged. Drivers have become the single largest cost burden for these companies. Although the performance of solid-state LiDAR continues to increase, mechanical LiDAR can be widely used for other types of sensors. A part of the suite, in the short term, is still the only choice for these active developers to achieve full automation.