Regarding the question of when the price of PV modules entered the era of 2.50 yuan, it was once in the industry in the first half of 2017. Afterwards, some people thought that it was because the '630 grab tide' delayed the process.
And now, this may be becoming a reality.
Recently, many pieces of information from the industry have shown that the actual transaction price of PV modules in some projects in the domestic market has fallen below the psychological threshold of 2.50 yuan.
According to the person in charge of the distributed photovoltaics department of a certain central state-owned enterprise, it seems that only the frontrunner project is still relatively firm, while in other projects, the transaction price of polycrystalline silicon components has dropped to around 2.40 yuan/watt or even lower. Monocrystalline components are 2.50 yuan / watts floating up and down.
It said that in the recent bid for a component of the company's project, single crystal, polycrystalline components have been quoted below 2.50 yuan / watt.
Since there are only a few dozen megawatts of this target, and the project party is a central state-owned enterprise, is this a customer's public relations behavior where the component company intentionally drops below the market price?
To the reporter's question, the above-mentioned person in charge almost certainly denied it.
On the next day, an industry friend commissioned a reporter to inquire about a certain A-share listed PV module company, which proved the current trend of module prices from another angle.
The friend told reporters that the prices of polycrystalline modules reported by companies have been as low as 2.37 yuan per watt. The reason why the two parties did not close a deal is not the price, but the company is not in the short list of the project party.
As the reporter continues to ask the parties for confirmation, the answers are almost identical.
An overseas listed photovoltaic company CEO told reporters that the overall trend of the current module prices is indeed down, most companies are also in the price adjustment. However, on the other hand, because the market trend is not clear enough, some large companies are still waiting to see, or To a certain extent, 'squeaking' the price continues to decline.
“Maybe we all want to see more clearly before we make decisions. Therefore, the current market conditions are becoming more and more bleak. Everyone’s life is not easy. At this stage, the domestic market has actually nothing to do. First, there is no profit. In addition the payment is also very poor. '
At the same time, however, contrary to the downward trend in component prices, information from the industry also shows that, in addition to actively expanding production capacity, most of the existing production lines of major manufacturers are almost fully in production.
On the one hand, the market is light and the profits are meagre. On the other hand, it is actively expanding production capacity and the production capacity is sufficient. This phenomenon is very puzzling.
The above CEO thinks this is actually quite understandable.
'Because in the price declining process, the industry concentration is getting higher and higher, due to quality and technical guarantees, there is also sufficient production capacity support, and a complete supply chain and after-sales service system, more and more customers tend to In cooperation with Dachang, so its opportunities are increasing. '
'Although the industry as a whole is not very good, but the more difficult are the second and third tier small factories, and they will be more difficult later.' He said.
For the current situation facing the industry, a material supplier executive expressed another view from the perspective of an “outside person”.
“Now it looks like the entire PV industry chain is in the middle of the squeeze. The profit of the upstream polysilicon material is close to 100%. In the near future, the demand is greater than supply. It seems that there is still an upward trend in prices. The downstream power station construction can also make money. The middle of the industry chain In the link, single crystal silicon profits linger near the break-even point, and the components are already low profit.
'If this continues, who will die first?' he asked.
Also from the industry's 'help' message, the reporter recently learned from a number of silicon materials companies, the current polysilicon supply seems to be reappearing around 2008 'a hard to get' scene.
Several silicon materials companies all told reporters that the current capacity task is full, and no new orders can be received in May.
As the few happy families, I don't know how long the happy days of silicon companies can last?
All indications indicate that further tightening of market demand has become a general trend.
Just this week, the National Energy Administration held a press conference and said that 'this year will strictly control the scale of photovoltaic development'. In the evening, CCTV 1 and 4 sets broadcasted this news at the same time.
For a time, the industry's enthusiasm was boiling.
Once the incremental market is rapidly shrinking, the entire industry chain will undoubtedly face greater downward pressure on prices. The majority of component companies located in the middle part of the industrial chain will be able to wait until the industry chain is rebalanced, or it will be a big problem.
'The industry may be left behind by one or two leading companies and three or five second-tier vendors. In the process of industry integration, how to build their own core competitiveness is an issue that every entrepreneur must think deeply.' The above-mentioned component company CEO said.
