Every reporter Wang Haiyan edited by Wang Jiaqi
To teach people to fish, it is better to teach people to fish.
In ancient times, he wanted to eat fish and learned to fish first. To catch fish, he first learned to net.
ZTE was 'blocked' by the United States. For a time, the chip was 'emergent'. As a result, the Chinese people shouted 'China Core'. The A-share market has also become a hot topic in terms of autonomous controllable chips.
However, in the mood of high inflation, it is rarely seen that we not only lacked the 'core', and even the equipment for the production of chips was controlled by a small number of companies in the United States, Japan, and Europe.
Semiconductor equipment localization rate is only 12%
Under the leadership of the chip's self-controllability, the localization index of chips (884160) rose by 9.53% last week. Since the bottom of the index in early February of this year, the highest increase of this index has exceeded 50%. The 47 components from the index Stocks view, mainly concentrated in various aspects of chip manufacturing, including A shares in several semiconductor production equipment companies, such as the North Huachuang, Jingsheng Electrical, Changchuan Technology.
However, a senior electronic researcher of a large brokerage company pointed out recently that compared with the high-end chips required by ZTE, the US embargo, investors must not ignore the supply risks of high-end semiconductor production equipment. The global semiconductor core equipment suppliers are concentrated in the United States, Japan. , Netherlands, If the US restricts the entry of semi-conductor equipment into China, then the number of wafer fabs currently under construction in China may face the risk of not obtaining the core equipment.
According to the research report recently released by China International Capital Corporation, global semiconductor equipment sales increased by 36% year-on-year to reach a new high in 2017; Semi predicts that global semiconductor equipment sales will increase by 9% and 5% respectively in 2018 and 2019, while China will Is the main growth engine.
In 2017, Chinese wafer fabs began large-scale construction. According to the 1-2 year construction cycle, 2018 and 2019 will be the peak period of equipment entry. Semi forecasts that China's equipment sales will increase year-on-year in 2018 and 2019. It grew by 57% and 60% to 75 billion yuan and 12.1 billion yuan. However, the current localization rate of semiconductor equipment is only 12%, and the localization rate in the high-end equipment sector is even lower.
As with chips, the localization of semiconductor production equipment is also a mid-to-long-term trend. The team of Huachuang Securities recently released a point of view that the ZTE event prompts the localization of semiconductor equipment to be implemented without delay, and that it is necessary to realize the autonomous and controllable semiconductor industry and the full localization of equipment. It is the most important thing. At present, semiconductor core equipment, single crystal furnaces, etching machines, thin film deposition equipment, and post-test equipment have been able to fully satisfy the production of 28nm process products, and have become the mainstream manufacturers of new chips in China. Production line base machine, 14nm equipment is also under continuous verification, is expected to enter the production line in the next two years.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that due to the impact of the ZTE event, the localization process of the semiconductor industry chain is expected to accelerate, and the trend of semiconductor equipment along the easy-to-difficult path to gradually localize will not change.
Capital's enthusiasm for localization of semiconductor equipment
At the end of March this year, the Ministry of Finance announced the "Regarding Enterprise Income Tax Policy on IC Manufacturing Companies", and IC companies that meet the conditions can be exempted from corporate income tax for a maximum of five years. In response, Northeast Securities analysts believe that it is foreseeable that the announcement of tax reduction policies will be announced. Drive a new round of investment in the integrated circuit field. Looking at the upstream and downstream, taking into account that this policy is a long-term policy, it is expected to drive production line investment for a long time. Therefore, the upstream semiconductor equipment manufacturers will continue to benefit from the industry in the long term. development of.
Daily economic news (micro-signal: nbdnews) learned from some seller analysts that since domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment is a general trend, investors at this stage have a higher level of enthusiasm for understanding the localization of semiconductor equipment.
Some of the seller’s research teams also started to provide related services. For example, recently, in the road show activities related to the independent controllable topics of the information industry in the brokerage organizations, apart from electronics, communications, and computers, these three industries are closely related to autonomous control. In addition to team participation, many of the brokerage's machinery industry teams will also participate, while the mechanical team is often benchmarking the semiconductor equipment industry.
In addition, there are also road show activities focusing on semiconductor equipment. It is reported that a large securities company will hold a teleconference of semiconductor equipment experts on April 24th. The theme will be “The path and opportunities for localization of chips, and the development of semiconductor equipment for various aspects such as crystal, testing, etc.” Localization status and space for localization, compared with major manufacturers'. On Friday, the electronic research team of a large securities company hosted a semiconductor-themed on-site salon. During this period, industry professionals mainly focused on the explanation of semiconductor process flow and semiconductor production equipment. Its team members told reporters that the main purpose of holding such a salon is to exchange knowledge of the industry.
The reporter noticed that some research teams have also started to research A-share semiconductor equipment related companies. For example, some teams recently made an appointment for a semiconductor testing equipment company.
The localization of semiconductor equipment is not an instant
Since February of this year, the performance of the A-share semiconductor equipment sector has been remarkable. The industry leading North China Development and related companies, Changchuan Technology, have doubled from the bottom to the highest point in the recent period. The increase over the same period has far exceeded the localization index of chips (884160), indicating the market. Recognized the logic of localization of semiconductor equipment. However, today (April 23) on the disk, the shares of semiconductor equipment concepts such as North Huachuang, Jingsheng Electromechanics, and Changchuan Technology all significantly adjusted.
Looking at the recent views of various research teams on the localization of semiconductor equipment, most of them believe that due to the strong domestic semiconductor equipment demand, in the current context, domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers usher in industry growth opportunities, and are expected to achieve domestic Alternative breakthroughs.
However, some organizations also pointed out that investors need to see the gap between reality and ideals. The electronic security team of Essence issued a report that pointed out that the semiconductor manufacturing process is complicated and there are many equipment market segments. The former processes include diffusion, photolithography, etching, and ionization. Injection, thin film growth, CMP, metallization, etc., to subsequent processes including thinning, cutting, patching, wire bonding, molding, etc., all involve related equipment; moreover, semiconductor equipment has higher technical barriers and the industry is showing high With regard to the degree of concentration, the top ten international semiconductor equipment manufacturers occupy absolute market advantages, mainly in the United States, Japan, and the Netherlands, while domestic manufacturers are at the initial stage and the industries are relatively weak.
It is understood that in the field of high-end semiconductor equipment, foreign companies are at the oligopoly stage. For example, the Dutch ASML accounts for more than 80% of the global semiconductor lithography machine equipment market. Its TWINSCAN series is currently the world's highest precision production. The most efficient and widely used high-end lithography machine is used by major semiconductor manufacturers worldwide.
In response, Essence Securities pointed out that at present, the middle and high-end semiconductor equipment market is almost completely monopolized by foreign companies. Due to technological and financial barriers, domestic semiconductor equipment production rates are low, and production capacity is far from meeting their own needs. Production equipment mainly in the low-end.
Haitong Securities’s electronic team expressed its view that compared to other links in the semiconductor industry chain, China’s semiconductor equipment and materials have accumulated a very weak link for a long time. Take semiconductor equipment as an example. In 2016, the number of Chinese manufacturers was only in number. Accounted for 7% of the world, the supply amount is minimal.
A member of the electronic team who has been ranked in the new wealth over recent years told the Daily Economic News (micro-signal: nbdnews) that it is a difficult process to realize the localization of key semiconductor production equipment. This requires national support or large accumulation in the previous period. , so doomed not to happen overnight.