There is a significant gap between the IC industry in China and the rest of the world. What is the road to catch up?
How does China plan to overtake China's core?
In 2014, the State Council issued the “Outline for Promoting the Development of the National IC Industry”, hoping to accelerate the mass production of 16/14nm manufacturing processes. It is also hoped that by 2030, the major links of the IC industry chain will reach the international advanced level, and a group of companies will enter the international market. The first echelon achieves leapfrog development.
Subsequently, China also established the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (the “Big Fund”) to invest in domestic semiconductor companies. The first phase raised funds of 138.7 billion yuan. By 2017, local governments will jointly announce the establishment of a semi-conductive 500 billion yuan semiconductor fund; Drive social investment 700 billion yuan.
In 2015 China Made 2025, it was proposed to increase the self-sufficiency rate of Chinese chips from less than 20% in 2015 to 40% in 2020 and reach 70% by 2025.
However, industry insiders who do not wish to be named pointed out that on the one hand, China started late in the modernization of integrated circuits, and the replacement rate of integrated circuits is very fast; on the other hand, countries such as the United States have strictly exported to China in related industries. Regulations have prevented multinational equipment suppliers from shipping the latest equipment to China. This has caused China's IC industry development to be restricted by technology.
The person said that technology is not easy to transfer. It is not only composed of blueprints and formulas that can be delivered on demand. More importantly, the knowledge of the numerous problems encountered in the design and production process and their solutions are Obtained through experience. This knowledge can only be transferred through the long work of the assignor and the assignee. At the same time, the success of the technology is difficult to obtain, depends on the willing and the motivation of the transferor, and the transferor and transferee. The capacity gap.
In countries such as Japan and South Korea, they have not opened the economy to foreign capital, nor provided markets for technology. In terms of technological capacity-building, these countries have limited cooperation with foreign companies and can only emphasize self-study through well-designed national projects. .
According to the above-mentioned sources, Japan and South Korea have been able to bring the technological level of their cars, semiconductors and other industries to the international frontier in a matter of decades. 'But in the case of a large distance, this will cost A lot of time, until the R&D comes out, technical advances may throw you off again.
Guo Gaohang believes that on the equipment side, under the current environment of an 8-inch second-hand line for sale, there is an opportunity for domestically produced equipment to solve the problem of domestic equipment verification.
Firstly, increase the domestic penetration rate of the packaging and test equipment market, promote the traditional packaging and high-end packaging equipment simultaneously, and support local equipment leaders to prioritize high-level processes in some key wafer manufacturing equipment fields, prompting the mainland China pilot line and China. Mainland manufacturers increased their efforts in the verification of domestically produced equipment. In addition, they further promoted the integration and upgrading of equipment companies in mainland China, prompting the rapid improvement of the overall technological level of the domestic semiconductor equipment industry.
At the material end, Guo Gaohang believes that key materials such as silicon wafers, photoresist, high-purity chemicals, special gas and other materials need to continue to increase R&D investment and accelerate the mass production process.
Semiconductor Industry Sets Up Convergence The United States Blocks Chinese Outbound M&A
While increasing investment in the semiconductor industry in China, the tide of integration of the semiconductor industry is also sweeping the world. Between 2015 and 2017, Intel, Qualcomm, Anhuagao, and Western Digital all actively initiated the purchase of billions of dollars. Softbank also spent about $32 billion to acquire global IP leader ARM.
Chinese capital and companies are also actively involved, but they are not high in terms of M&A and M&A success rates. Shawn Cooley, special adviser to Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer, told 21st Century Business Herald two years ago or Earlier, the U.S. Foreign Investment Committee’s concerns about foreign investment in US semiconductor companies were relatively limited.
'The situation changed in late 2016', Cooley pointed out, at that time, the overseas investment by Chinese-funded enterprises reached a record culmination, which led President Obama to block China’s acquisition of Acecan Corporation. Since then, the US Foreign Investment Commission has increasingly publicly stated that it needs to To protect the strength of the United States in the semiconductor field, and to be more aggressive in the review of foreign acquisitions, especially for Chinese companies.
After President Trump became in power, the U.S. Foreign Investment Commission tended to avoid risks and its subsidiaries were reluctant to assume any potential risks. Cooley believes that this change is of great importance because the U.S. Foreign Investment Commission originally aimed to manage risks rather than eradicate them. All risks.
In January 2018, China's semiconductor company North China Ventures acquired US semiconductor equipment manufacturer Akrion Systems LLC for US$15 million. The US Foreign Investment Commission approved the acquisition of Akrion Systems. Cooley believes that this case also shows that the US Foreign Investment Commission The focus is still on protecting sensitive semiconductor technology, not the downstream industry.
Guo Gaohang believes that China’s national will in the development of the IC industry is firm, while the entire industry chain is rapidly improving, and the various industrial chains are advancing at a high speed. In the future, once China has achieved independent control in the IC industry, the United States is the largest in the world. The status of the exporting country of integrated circuit products will be greatly threatened.
Maintaining the absolute superiority of China's IC industry for a long period of time is the focus of consideration by the United States. Guo Gaohang believes that directly affecting or blocking China’s foreign mergers and acquisitions is one of the strategies to limit the growth of China’s IC industry.
The aforementioned private equity person also stated that in the semiconductor industry, for example, the design side, there are very few overseas M&A targets, and there are several companies such as ARM, Intel, and Qualcomm. The investment amount of some projects is often in the hundreds of billions, and the profit after mergers and acquisitions There is no guarantee that this will require a long period of time. Investors need to take a long-term perspective.
Cooley pointed out that the U.S.’s current concerns about foreign investment in the telecommunications industry have risen sharply. 'This is not just for China, but I personally believe that this concern has not reached a peak.'