The U.S. Department of Commerce issued a paper sanction order that rekindles China's 'coreless' anxiety.
The accelerating domestic demand for chips revived. This was reflected in the A-share market, which was a rise in chip concept stocks. On the afternoon of April 18th, the domestic chip concept stocks rose in a contrarian, Infront Micro, Wenyi Technology, Tianzhu Group, Shenzhen Science and Technology, Ziguang Guoxin, Datang Telecom, Bentham Technology, North Huachuang and other 19 chip concept stocks have reached daily limit.
According to the data of Choice financial terminal, at present, there are 69 chip concept stocks in China in the A shares, with a total market value of approximately RMB 112.65 billion (data as of April 21, 2018), which is equivalent to only 0.4 Tencent. As of April. On the 21st, the US market value of Qualcomm reached US$76.151 billion, with a contract value of 479.3 billion yuan, Broadcom's market value of US$99.755 billion, contract value of 627.9 billion yuan, Intel's market capitalization of US$241.16 billion, and contract value of 1.5179 billion yuan. Only these three companies combined. About 26.51 billion yuan. This means that the total market value of A-share chip concept stocks is less than half of the top three US giants.
According to the statistics of the reporters, compared with the United States, China and chip-related companies are generally small in size; in addition, compared with the international giants’ multi-billion-dollar R&D investment, one of the domestic chip representatives has a smaller total amount of R&D expenditures by SMIC. 2017 The annual investment was 427 million U.S. dollars, while the investment in R&D of A-share companies was only more than 100 million U.S. dollars.
In addition, the proportion of R&D spending to sales and the international giants' gap is not small. The three largest chip giants in the US account for 20% of the time, while SMIC also has 13.77%.
In terms of profitability, as of April 22, based on the net profit of domestic chip concept stocks that have disclosed 2017 financial statements, it is preliminary estimated that the total net profit of the 69 domestic chip concept stocks of the A shares will be around 10 billion yuan. Shows that in fiscal year 2017, Qualcomm achieved revenue of 22.3 billion U.S. dollars and net profit of 2.5 billion U.S. dollars.
Over half of gross profit margins of more than a dozen leading companies declined
In the domestic chip industry, who is the leader in each segment? According to China-Thailand Securities Research, the leading domestic memory chip design is Zhaoyi Innovation, the domestic GPU leader is Jingjia Micro, and the leader in semiconductor discrete devices is Yangjie Technology. , LED chip leader is Sanan Optoelectronics, domestic IDM high-quality enterprise is Shilan Micro, domestic semiconductor equipment leader is North Huachuang, the current domestic leading integrated circuit chip design and system integration solution provider is Ziguang Guoxin, domestic high performance The leading company in the calculation is China Academy of Sciences, and the leader in embedded processor chip is Beijing Junzheng. The domestic high-quality IC design company is Zhongying Electronics. The leading company in the global biometric chip is Huiding Technology. Electricity Technology...
According to the statistics of the reporters, among the A-share chip concept stocks, the gross profit margin is below 30%, accounting for 57%. This means that the technical content of the company's products is not high, and its substitution is strong. Even domestic leading integrated circuit chip design and system integration solutions The solution provider, Ziguang Guoxin, has a gross profit margin of only 33.14%. The chip company’s representative company, SMIC’s gross margin, is only 23.9%. Some international chip giants generally have a gross margin of 50. %the above.
The reporter noted that Ziguang Guoxin and SMIC’s gross profit margin all showed a year-on-year decline in 2016. Among the over a dozen leading A-share companies in the segments segmented by China-Thailand Securities, over half of the gross profit margin declined.
There is still a gap between the proportion of R&D investment on behalf of the company and the giants
As far as the status quo is concerned, the investment in R&D personnel and funds for China's chip concept stocks continues to increase, but the total amount of figures is still lagging behind that of outstanding companies in the industry in the world. According to IC Insights statistics, in 2015, the world’s top 10 chips The total R&D cost of manufacturers is US$30.7 billion, of which Intel’s R&D spending is US$12.1 billion. It is the first place. Intel’s R&D expenditure survey report released by IC insights also shows that the global R&D expenditure for semiconductors in 2016 increased by 1% compared to 2015, reaching 56.5 billion. The dollar, set a new record high.
The Hong Kong-listed SMIC net profit for 2017 revenue of 3.1 billion U.S. dollars, the profit attributable to owners of the company was 179.7 million U.S. dollars, the net amount of research and development expenditure was 427 million U.S. dollars, and the research and development expenses accounted for 13.77%. According to institutional statistics, 13.77% of the data has exceeded the industry average, but there are still a lot of gaps between Intel and Qualcomm and Broadcom.
According to statistics of IC Insights, in 2017, Intel’s R&D expenses accounted for 21.2% of sales, high-pass 20.2%, and Broadcom 19.2%.
A listed company borrows government subsidies to avoid losses
All along, chips are high-tech, and the chip industry is also a key support area for the government.
In the domestic chip concept stock that has disclosed the 2017 annual financial report, the reporter noted that the amount of government subsidies obtained by these enterprises in 2017 was mostly over 10 million yuan, and even worse, the amount of subsidies was over 100 million yuan. The amount of government subsidy obtained by Easy Innovation in 2017 was approximately RMB 196 million. The amount of government subsidy that Sanan Optoelectronic obtained in 2017 was approximately RMB 486 million. North Huachuang received government grants in 2015, 2016, and 2017 consecutively. 3 years are more than 300 million yuan.
On the other hand, the reporter found that a few listed companies had avoided losses through government subsidies. In 2017, Changjiang Electronics' operating revenue was approximately 23.855 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was approximately 343 million yuan. According to the financial report, Changjiang Electronics obtained a government grant of approximately 350 million yuan in 2017. In other words, if there is no government subsidy, Changjiang Electronics' 2017 net profit attributable to shareholders of a listed company will be negative. According to Eastern Wealth Data, its Non-deductible net profit was -263 million yuan.
What's more, profits for three consecutive years all depend on government subsidies. In 2015, 2016, and 2017, Beijing Junzheng’s operating income was approximately RMB 70.105 million, RMB 112 million, and RMB 184 million, respectively, attributable to listed companies. The net profit of shareholders was approximately 3.204 million yuan, 7.0521 million yuan, and 6.5 million yuan. According to financial reports, the amount of government grants granted by Beijing Junzheng in 2015, 2016, and 2017 were respectively 47.1318 million yuan, 1411.59 million yuan, 103.586 million yuan. Yuan. According to Orient Wealth Data, its non-deductible net profit was negative for 2014. The Beijing News reporter Yan Xia
Industry short board
Small scale, lack of design capabilities
Generally, in the semiconductor chip industry, there are mainly three types of business models, such as Intel, and companies that go from design to manufacturing, packaging and testing to the consumer market, are called IDM (Integrated Design and Manufacture); Second, some companies only design this piece, there is no fab (factory), usually called Fabless. For example ARM, AMD, Qualcomm Broadcom, etc.; Third, there are other companies, only for OEM, Only fab, no design, called Foundry, common TSMC, etc.
As the leading company of domestic chip concept stocks, these above-mentioned stocks are all working hard in their respective subdivided areas. However, there is still a problem that the design and manufacturing capabilities of the industry do not match.
Among the leading companies in the 13 subdivided areas, only Silan Micro is an IDM-based company, and all other companies that belong to the Foundry or Fabless model.
According to Shilan Wei’s official financial report, its 2015, 2016, and 2017 operating revenues were approximately: 1.926 billion yuan, 2.75 billion yuan, and 27.42 billion yuan. As the international leader in IDM model companies, Intel’s 2017 revenue is approximately For 62.8 billion US dollars. The size of China's chip companies and international leading companies are not at the same level.
In the article "Analysis of the Current Situation of China's IC Industry in 2017" published by Wei Shaojun, director of the Institute of Microelectronics at Tsinghua University, Wei Shaojun concluded that: 'Despite the rapid development of the chip manufacturing industry, it is mainly processed for overseas customers; The chip design industry has grown at a high rate, but mainly uses overseas resources.
Wei Shaojun also pointed out that the specific performance of the design industry is not enough: the IP supply of domestic OEMs is insufficient; the design industry lacks the design capabilities of key IP cores; SoC design heavily relies on third-party IP cores; and it relies heavily on process resources with mature IP cores; Lack of ability to define the design process; lack of COT design capabilities; rely mainly on advances in process technology and advances in EDA tools.
Cases
The first chip of Ziguang Guoxin:
Increasing income does not increase profits Capital operation is often frustrated
Among the many chip concept stocks, Ziguang Guoxin, which claims to be the first player in the chip, has recently started a rising pattern. From April 16 to April 20, Ziguang Guoxin rose from 47.94 yuan to 58.15 yuan, an increase of 21%. The latest market value is 352.86. Billion yuan, P/E ratio (static) / (TTM) reached 126.07/128.86 times. Behind the high valuation is Ziguang Guoxin’s performance in increasing revenue without increasing profits, and continuing capital operation.
According to the official website, Ziguang Guoxin Co., Ltd. is a listed company in the semiconductor industry of Ziguang Group, focusing on IC chip design and development.
From a business point of view, Ziguang Guoxin is mainly involved in the design and sales of integrated circuit chips, including smart security chip products, special integrated circuit products and memory chip products, respectively from Beijing Tongfang Microelectronics Co., Ltd., Shenzhen State Microelectronics Co., Ltd. and Xi'an Violet. Three core subsidiaries of National Semiconductor Semiconductor Co., Ltd. undertake.
Ziguang Guoxin does not increase profits and profitability declines
On April 21st, Ziguang Guoxin released its first quarterly report. From January to March, it achieved an operating income of 516 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.28%. However, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of listed companies was 47,399,100 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.31%.
According to the 2017 annual report, its operating income was 1.829 billion yuan, an increase of 28.94% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 280 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.73%.
Accordingly, Ziguang Guoxin’s revenue has continued to grow since last year, but its net profit has continued to decline. Eastern Fortune Network shows that in recent years Ziguang Guoxin’s operating income has risen steadily. In 2013, it was 920 million yuan. By 2017, it has turned over. Nearly doubled, reaching 1.83 billion.
However, Ziguang Guoxin’s gross profit margin has been declining for three consecutive years. It was 41% in 2015, 38% in 2016, and 33% in the previous year. Its net interest rate has experienced continuous decline for five years, and 29.74% in 2013 has been declining. To last year's 15%.
The latest market value of Ziguang Guoxin is 35.286 billion yuan, and the P/E ratio (static) / (TTM) reaches 126.07/128.86. Zigong Guoxin's performance decline can enjoy the market's ultra-high valuation, which is not unrelated to its frequent capital operation.
On November 4, 2015, Tongfang shares announced that the company plans to sell the 36.39% stake of Tongfang Guoxin held by the company to Ziguang Group at a total price of 7.012 billion yuan to tie in with the overall deployment of Tsinghua's industrial restructuring and reform. Since then, Ziguang Guoxin has been transferred from the Tsinghua Holdings Tongfang Department to the Ziguang Department, and later changed its name to Ziguang Guoxin.
On the second day of Ziguang’s admission, Tongfang Guoxin announced the non-public offering plan. It plans to issue 2.959 billion shares non-publicly at 27.04 yuan/share, and the total amount of funds raised shall not exceed 80 billion yuan, setting the record for the largest non-public financing of A shares ever.
Among them, it plans to invest 60 billion yuan to build a memory chip factory, 3.79 billion yuan to acquire 25% of Taiwan Licheng, and 16.21 billion yuan to buy upstream and downstream companies in the chip industry chain. After the non-public issuance, the controlling shareholder of the company will change. For the Tibetan violet core.
Capital operation is often frustrated
In January and February of 2016, Ziguang Guoxin entered into the "Share Purchase Agreement" with Taiwan Powers Technology and Nanmao Technology, respectively, and plans to acquire 25% of the equity of Licheng Technology and Nanmao Technology respectively for a total of approximately RMB 6.15 billion. Become the largest shareholder of the company, Nanmao Technology's second largest shareholder.
However, these two acquisitions began to fail at the end of 2016. In December 2016, Ziguang Guoxin announced the termination of the “Share Warrant Agreement” signed with Nanmao Technology. On January 24, 2017, Ziguang Guoxin was responsible for Licheng Technology. The acquisition was also terminated. Ziguang Guoxin stated that the restructuring failed because it failed to obtain approval from the relevant department within the agreed time limit.
However, Ziguang Guoxin's capital operation is still in its ascendant. On February 20, 2018, Ziguang Guoxin announced that it had suspended trading in major events and was subsequently identified as a major asset reorganization. The acquisition project was Changjiang Storage Technology Holdings Co., Ltd. Memory chip manufacturing.
According to public information, Changjiang Storage is a national memory base project implementation company, and the national storage base project is known as 'to fill gaps in the mainstream of China's memory and to get rid of chips under the control of people'. Project content includes chip manufacturing, industrial chain support, etc. The annual investment is about 160 billion yuan. By the year 2020, it will achieve a monthly production capacity of 300,000 wafers. By 2030, it will achieve a monthly capacity of 1 million wafers.
However, in July last year, this major asset restructuring of Yangtze River Storage also failed. According to Ziguang Guoxin, the reason is that the investment in memory chip factory projects in the Yangtze River is relatively large, and it is still in the initial stage of construction and will not be able to generate sales in the short term. Income, acquisition is not mature enough.
Behind the many capital operations, Ziguang Group emerged
The Beijing News reporter noticed that in Ziguang Guoxin's above-mentioned capital operation, there are shareholders behind the company Ziguang Group.
For example, in the case of a fixed-volume increase of 80 billion yuan, there are eight subscription agencies, among which five belong to the Ziguang Group, including Ziguang Dongyue, Ziguang Xiyue, Ziguangshuren, Ziguang Bolu and Ziguang Shencai. Subscribe for 15 billion yuan, 15 billion yuan, 4.7 billion yuan, 4.7 billion yuan, 10 billion yuan, a total of 49.4 billion yuan.
In Ziguang Guoxin’s acquisition of Yangtze River Storage, Ziguang Group is not only the major shareholder of the acquisition party Ziguang Guoxin but also the controller of Changjiang River Storage.
According to the official website, Ziguang Group is a high-tech enterprise under the umbrella of Tsinghua University and is the largest integrated circuit company in China. It is the third largest mobile phone chip company in the world. Since 2016, Ziguang Group has started a total construction investment in Wuhan, Nanjing and Chengdu. Nearly 100 billion US dollars in memory chips and memory manufacturing plants. Prior to this, it successively invested heavily in the acquisition of telecommunications, RDA and Xinhua III, causing concern. Beijing News reporter Zhao Yibo