Lao Wei: The United States banned ZTE chip, experts believe that opening the river is a disaster

The United States banned ZTE chips, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that 'China's chip level has become closer to the world's top echelon', experts say 'China's high-end chip development has a basis'.

Even ZX's all chips that are subject to restrictions in the 12th and 13th Five Year National Research Programs have corresponding deployments.

Is this really true?

Indeed, China already has Hassin Kirin processors that rival Qualcomm processors. China's memory is also ready for trial production this year, but the fact that chips can be developed does not mean that catching up with the United States is close at hand.

Aside from the difference in the level of domestic chips and European and American (including Japan and South Korea) chips, most of the EDA tools used in domestic chips come from Europe and the United States. Most of the equipment for wafer manufacturing, packaging, and testing are from Europe and the United States. Most of the raw materials made from round steel are from Europe and the United States. The key is that most of the semiconductor patents in various fields are also controlled by Europe and the United States.

The modern semiconductor architecture has been established by Europe and the United States. The core technology of the entire industry chain has been basically controlled by European and American companies. Even if individual links in China break through, it is not enough to support the breakthrough of the Chinese chip industry.

The origin of Trump's 301 investigation was intellectual property rights. Independent innovation does not mean that people's intellectual property is not used.

The United States has banned the sale of chips to ZTE. China hopes to strengthen its independent innovation is not wrong, but if:

The US bans the sale of EDA tools and IP cores to China. How does China design chips?

The United States bans the sale of equipment to China, how does China build factories? There are only etch machines that are not necessarily leading in their own right. How does a lithography fab not produce?

The United States prohibits the sale of products that use US technology or patents to China. Can China import any electronic components from overseas?

The answer is no. In the semiconductor industry, if the United States completely prohibits the sale of technology or products to China, the Chinese semiconductor industry will completely collapse, and China’s powerful manufacturing industry will collapse across the board. This is not sensational.

The United States banned the sale of chips to ZTE, Broadcom in the United States, and Intel stopped supplying for the first time, while non-US companies were assessing the use of U.S. technology or patents, because even if they are powerful, such as Samsung, TSMC and other such integrated circuits are also emerging. It is impossible to use related patents or technologies of U.S. companies.

Independent innovation is not to set aside a new system for overseas technology. In this way, China's integrated circuits will regress for 20 years. Independent control is not a matter of isolating overseas companies. Such China's national security will be in jeopardy.

A few days ago I saw the newly released "Three core elements" of China's CPU self-controllability. I. Whether the CPU development unit meets the requirements for security and confidentiality; Second, whether the CPU instruction system can sustain independent development. Third, whether the CPU core source code is written by itself ;

It is not that there is no CPU that meets the 'core three elements' in China at present. Otherwise, these three elements cannot be released.

Whether the current computer processor or mobile phone processor has undergone system testing and security testing for decades, even then, whether Intel or Qualcomm has reported amazing security holes, the Chinese CPU can be controlled independently without mass data testing. , And how to ensure technically safe and controllable?

It is true that the CPU can be controlled independently. In the current state of China's industry, foreign IP and EDA tools must be used. Even if it is produced domestically, overseas equipment must be used. Is it possible to safely control the equipment produced by loopholes?

In many cases, the so-called self-control can only set the threshold to shut out the relevant stakeholders. The so-called independent innovation is only for drawing more research funds from the country, either for name or profit.

The United States has conducted a 'double reverse' survey on China's photovoltaic industry, and it has not hindered the rapid development of China's photovoltaic industry. If the United States completely embargoes on China's semiconductor technology, China's decades of manufacturing power will be eliminated.

There is nothing wrong with making in China 2025. The premise is to participate in international cooperation, compete, respect intellectual property rights, and abide by international rules, not to fight against independent innovation that the United States has forced to shut down. It is impossible for China to set aside the existing semiconductor system. China Nor does the people allow retrogression of living standards for 20 years.

The keyboard party can open its mouth, and the result is only salutary. If the experts open their mouths, the result will be a disaster.

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