April petrochemical centralized maintenance boosted price rebound
In the first quarter, the futures market experienced a declining downtrend. Downstream demand was less than expected. After the Spring Festival, petrochemicals entered a high inventory, and continued to lower the ex-factory prices. The price of the contracted prices continued to decline. The 1809 contract fell from 9,985 to 8,960, the largest decrease was 1025. In April, petrochemicals Maintenance equipment increased, and due to cost support, petrochemical raised the ex-factory price, boosting period price rebounded, but the downstream just needed to weaken, long-short against factors, the period price rose to 9400 near resistance, followed by consolidation around 9300 shocks.
In April, petrochemical began centralized shutdown and maintenance. The operating rate of PE petrochemical plant dropped to around 87%, which was a decrease of 10% from the end of March. The digestion of petrochemical polyolefin stocks accelerated accordingly. As of April 13, the inventory of petrochemical polyolefins dropped to 800,000. Near ton, it was down about 200,000 tons from the beginning of April, and supply pressure eased.
Spot premium futures, boost longing mentality
Affected by the pressure on inventory and international oil prices, the ex-factory price of petrochemicals in April was increased to RMB 9600-9,700/t, stimulating the quotations in the spot market to increase. Among them, the mainstream 7042 coal produced in North China was reported to be around 9,500 yuan/ton. System 7042 mainstream report 9600 yuan / ton, the current spot premium plastic 05 contract 200 yuan / ton, or plastic water 09 contract 250 yuan / ton.
The pressure on domestic petrochemical inventories eased, and the price appetite was obvious. The May settlement was approaching, and the 05 contract discounted spot price was around RMB 200/ton. It is expected that the market outlook will still have rising expectations, and to some extent, the 09 contract will be suppressed.
Maintenance benefits gradually realized, the supply weakened
At present, the overhaul facility has been largely shut down for maintenance in April, Zhenhai Refinery, and Shenyang Chemicals plans to stop at the end of April. There will be less overhaul facilities in the next one to two weeks. There will only be one Shanghai Petrochemical company. Even if there are other devices, it will be unplanned and overhauled. Long, and Fujian plans to drive on April 14, and the 800,000-ton/year PE plant of China Ocean Shell Phase II will be put into operation. It is expected that the decline in the operating rate of petrochemical plants will slow down, dragging down the pace of petrochemical inventories.
Downstream just wake up demand weaker
April is the traditional off-season PE demand, especially the rigid demand for plastic film will be significantly decreased (from April to May to the lowest point, from June to July began to rise), in addition, when the downstream terminal purchases raw materials, it is often not buying or buying. When the spot market rebounded and rebounded at the beginning of April, the enthusiasm for purchase increased. Now, once the market's gains are slowing down, the attitude of the manufacturers to wait and see will immediately increase, and it will be difficult to purchase at a centralized scale.
Petrochemical ex-factory prices slowed down
The recent escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East stimulated international oil prices to stop rebounding and rebounded, and broke through the previous highs. The support for the cost of petrochemical products improved. With the shift in the international oil price center, the ex-factory price of petrochemicals also rose accordingly, and the profit was close to 2,000 yuan/ton. , Compared with the previous period, it has risen. According to the law of previous years, petrochemical profits are rarely below 1000-1500 yuan / ton range, according to the current oil price operating range, there is strong support for petrochemical prices in the 9000-9200 yuan / ton. However, the oil price The increase was mainly supported by geopolitical tensions. There is uncertainty in the market outlook. Once it fades, the good will become negative. In addition, the supply and demand side of crude oil is still bearish, and whether the oil price rally can continue is uncertain and difficult to stimulate. Petrochemical ex-factory prices continue to rise.
The competitive advantage of imported goods has increased and competition with domestic sources has intensified
With the continuous price hikes of domestic petrochemicals and the weakening of the US dollar index, the competitive advantage of imported goods has increased. Currently, it is at the same price as domestic goods. In addition, the inventory of imported goods has not yet fallen to normal levels. Competition between imported and domestic sources has intensified, dragging petrochemical stocks. The pace of decline, difficult to petrochemical ex-factory prices continue to provide favorable support.
Based on the above factors, the supply and demand side of the spot and the cost side face each other, and the market's gains are slowing down.