The report analyzes that 2025-2027 will be an economic turning point for autonomous driving. At this time, the cost of autopilot and manpower driving will reach a balance. After this inflection point, the market demand for autonomous driving will steadily rise.
On April 16th, McKinsey, a global management consulting company, held a communication meeting in Beijing to announce the establishment of the McKenzie Future Travel Center (MCFM) in Beijing to locate the travel industry think tank and consultants. MCFM also released a study on the Chinese autopilot market. View.
China will become the world's largest automated driving market
Over the past year, the giants active in the field of autonomous driving have been making frequent moves. Chinese companies led by Baidu have been increasingly driving autonomously. They have either gone to the United States to apply for licenses for road tests in California, or they have opened directly to Beijing’s Wuhuan and announced the pace of mass production plans. Not lagging behind international auto giants. On the other hand, start-up companies and their corresponding investment in mergers and acquisitions are also beginning to emerge. As McKinsey analyses, in China, a large amount of capital is emerging around autopilot, expectation and propaganda (and many more Startup companies. At present, a large number of Chinese companies are embarking on the development of the core components of the autonomous driving technology architecture, including lidar, cameras, processors, software, and map/location-based services. Between 2012 and 2017, there are approximately 70 A billion U.S. dollars in venture capital investment in China’s autonomous driving technology companies corresponds to the amount invested in U.S. start-ups in the same period. China’s average deal size is 72 million U.S. dollars, which is twice the average deal size in the United States.
If the auto-pilot can take root in China, the prospects will be very broad. ' McKinsey's confidence in the Chinese auto-driving market is full of confidence. Specific analysis suggests that by 2030, auto-pilot will account for about 13% of the total passenger mileage (PKMT). By 2040, it will reach about 66%; by 2030, auto-driving passenger vehicles will reach about 8 million; by 2040, it will reach about 13.5 million; by 2030, total auto sales will reach about 2300. The billion U.S. dollars will reach about 460 billion U.S. dollars by 2040; by 2030, the amount of travel orders based on autonomous driving will reach about 260 billion U.S. dollars, and by 2040 it will reach about 940 billion U.S. dollars.
It is no doubt that China is the world’s largest auto market. However, for auto-driving cars, China’s views that may be particularly important are also recognized by some experts. Christian Senger, head of the Volkswagen Electric Vehicles, was blunt at the Geneva Motor Show in 2018. It is pointed out that the further development of driverless cars will be promoted by the Chinese market.
In order to promote the development of self-driving cars, the Chinese government has also introduced a series of support policies for the smart network industry. Such as "Made in China 2025", the smart gridlink car is listed in one of the ten key development areas; The Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan for the Industry clearly defines the smart grid-linked automobile as a breakthrough in the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry. On January 5 this year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Intelligent Automobile Innovation and Development Strategy” (draft for solicitation of opinions) to publicly solicit opinions and publicize China’s intelligence. The strategic vision of the car: By 2020, the proportion of new vehicles for smart cars will reach 50%, and the mid-to-high-level smart cars will be market-oriented. The demonstration operation in key regions will be effective.
In terms of drive test, from December 2017 to March 2018, after Beijing, Shanghai, and Chongqing’s autonomous driving test regulations were successively issued, there was another April 2018 “Intelligent Networked Road Test Management Specification”. (Experimental)" issued and issued a green light for road tests for autonomous driving in various places and provided a programmatic document.
Not only that, China is also actively promoting the construction of new industries related to autonomous driving such as artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, 5G, and cloud computing.
These will undoubtedly provide an advantageous opportunity for the development of China’s autonomous driving. Even the CNBC report has to admit: As China has the ability to quickly make regulatory decisions, it is preparing to go faster than other countries. Establishing a market for self-driving cars. Michael Dunn, president of the US Dunn Motor Company, agrees with CNBC. He said to CNBC: 'The Chinese government can and will drive automatic driving earlier than the United States.'
However, it is worth noting that unlike some people who regard the complexity of China’s road conditions as an unfavorable factor in China’s development of autonomous driving, in the McKinsey analysis, the auto-driving environment in China is more complex than in other parts of the world, but the good news is that it is usually needed. The same technology. Specifically, although it takes an additional 2-3 years to apply software algorithms to the traffic environment in China, the underlying technologies required to deploy autonomous driving in China are basically the same as those in other countries. These include sensors and computing platforms. Technology, such as motion planning and control and object analysis, is likely to continue to be dominated by international technology giants. Technologies such as the data cloud, maps and location services, and connectivity features that are relevant to local requirements require comprehensive localization solutions or A hybrid solution that combines local and global technology. This will undoubtedly contribute to the development of China's auto driving.
49% of Chinese consumers believe that fully automated driving is 'very important'
In addition, the self-confidence of autopilot in China may be due to the strong interest of Chinese consumers in autopilot.
According to McKinsey's research, 49% of Chinese consumers believe that fully automated driving is 'very important', and another 49% of Chinese consumers think it 'dispensable'. This result is in stark contrast to German and US consumers: Only 16% of German and U.S. consumers believe that fully automated driving is 'very important' and another 53% of German and U.S. consumers consider it 'dispensable'. Chinese consumers are willing to pay up to $4,600 for the purchase of self-driving vehicles. The premiums, while the United States and Germany were $3,900 and $2,900, respectively.
It can be seen that the Chinese are still more willing to try new technologies and new products.
In fact, this is not the first time the survey has found that Chinese consumers' acceptance of automated driving is higher than in other countries. Earlier Roland Berger also reported that Chinese consumers have shown a strong interest in automated driving: If fully automated driving occurs Robotic taxi, and the cost per trip is lower than that of own cars, 46% of respondents said they will not buy cars any more, and this proportion is as high as 73% in China. Roland Berger, partner Zheng Jun also It has been pointed out, 'For consumers to accept unmanned vehicles, when considering, the big assumption is that the technology in all aspects of security has been guaranteed, so under this premise, Chinese consumers have a special feature. The acceptance of new things is very high. In addition to our previous research on drones or artificial intelligence, whether it is time-sharing leasing or the application of some new technologies, consumers in the Chinese market cut according to the dimensions of general research. The scores are higher than the acceptance of developed countries. '
As for McKinsey's research, Wu Jian, a global managing partner of McKinsey & Company, analyzed: “The current indicators show that autonomous driving has a unique advantage in China. Compared with consumers in other countries, Chinese consumers are considering buying autonomous driving. Vehicles, especially in the high-end market. In fact, compared with other countries' consumers, Chinese car buyers pay special attention to the performance of autonomous vehicles.
2025-2027 will reach the turning point of the economy of automatic driving
On the whole, although the prospects are broad, there is still a long way to go to achieve automatic driving. McKinsey does not have a high praise for developing autopilot in China. It also raises some difficulties in development.
The report pointed out that the cost of the autopilot system is too high, and the lack of attractiveness in the economy is the biggest bottleneck affecting its development. McKinsey surveyed experts in this area and only 27% of respondents believe that by 2025 Solve the cost problem; another 37% believe that the solution can be resolved between 2025 and 2030; 20% will be resolved between 2030 and 2034; 17% believe that the solution will be resolved after 2035.
In addition, McKinsey also pointed out that reliability and safety are another major bottleneck in the promotion of autonomous driving technology. Only 30% of respondents believe that the problem can be solved by 2025; 33% believe that it can be between 2025-2029. Resolved; 36% believe that it will be resolved after 2030.
However, despite developments facing a series of 'bottleneck', McKinsey still predicts that 2025-2027 will be the turning point of autopilot. Based on the estimation of the cost curve of the underlying technology of autopilot, this will be the economical point of autopilot and human driving. In other words, the total cost per kilometer of autonomous driving will be roughly equal to the cost of drivers driving conventional cars. After this inflection point, the market demand for autonomous driving will steadily rise.