DRAMeXchange pointed out that from the perspective of the current layout of the three major plants, the Hefei Changxin plant has been capped and completed in June of last year, and moved into the testing machine in the third quarter of last year. The current progress of Hefei Changxin is similar to Jinhua's integration. The production schedule will be in the third quarter of this year. Mass production will be tentatively scheduled for the first half of 2019. The time horizon will lag behind expectations. In addition, due to Hefei Changxin direct attack LPDDR4 8Gb, one of the most important products in the three major DRAM manufacturers. The likelihood of facing patent disputes is also higher. To avoid this situation, in addition to actively accumulating patent rights, it may initially be locked in to sales in China.
In contrast, Jinhua integration focused on niche-type memory was announced in July 2016. The 12-inch plant was built in Jinjiang City, Fujian Province, with an investment of approximately US$5.3 billion. With the current progress, the trial production of niche-type memory is extended. From the third quarter of this year, the production schedule will also fall in the first half of next year.
In addition, from the perspective of the development process of Chinese manufacturers NAND Flash, at the end of December 2016, the national storage base led by Yangtze River Storage was formally grounded. The official expects that in three phases, a total of three 3D-NAND Flash plants will be established. It was completed in September last year. It is scheduled to be moved into the machine in the third quarter of 2018, and trial production will be carried out in the fourth quarter. Initially, no more than 10,000 tablets will be produced for the production of 32-layer 3D-NAND Flash products. After the maturity of 64-story technology, the second and third-stage production plans will be prepared according to the situation.
DRAMeXchange pointed out that observing China's memory manufacturers' R&D and output plans, 2019 will be the first year of production of China's memory industry, but also because the two DRAM plants are not expected to have large initial production scale and will not shake the global market in the short term. Existing pattern.
In the long term, as China's memory products mature gradually, it is expected that the existing plants of the two DRAM manufacturers will gradually become fully loaded between 2020 and 2021. Under the most optimistic projections, the two companies will collectively have about 250,000 monthly injections. The scale may start to affect the supply of the global DRAM market. On the other hand, the total capacity of the three plants in the Yangtze River Storage Project may reach as high as 300,000 pieces per month. It is not ruled out that after the completion of the 64-story product development of the The scale of the film, and then in the next three to five years will have a significant impact on the supply of NAND Flash.