National Bureau of Statistics Spokesperson for the First Quarter of 2018
Report on the Operation of the National Economy
CCTV reporter:
Judging from the statistics you just released, the economic performance in the first quarter was stable. What I would like to ask is how do you fully evaluate the operation of the national economy in the first quarter of China? How do you understand that your start is good?
Xing Zhihong:
Thank you for your question. In the first quarter of this year, China’s economic development has progressed steadily and steadily, and new education has been introduced. The national economy has continued its steady and positive trend. The transformation and upgrading have been further promoted, the quality and efficiency have continued to increase, and the economic development has started well. The characteristics of the operation, I would like to use the words "steady, new, excellent, good" to summarize.
The first word is 'stable'. From the perspective of the main indicators of macro-control, the overall situation of China's economic operation in the first quarter of this year is stable, showing stable growth, expanding employment, stable prices, and a balance of balance of payments operations. The pattern of economic growth is stable. In the first quarter of this year, China’s economy grew by 6.8%. This growth rate was in line with the fourth quarter of last year. The economic growth rate has been stable in the range of 6.7%-6.9% for 11 consecutive quarters. Employment has steadily expanded, with each month in the first quarter. The unemployment rate in cities and towns in China is stable at around 5%. In particular, surveys of unemployment in urban areas in 31 large cities continue to stay below 5%. The total number of rural laborers working outside the countryside has increased by 1.88 million over the same period of last year, an increase of 1.1% year-on-year. This is an important indicator of stable economic performance. The price situation is generally stable. The consumer price in the first quarter increased by 2.1% from the same period of last year. It continued to maintain a moderate upward trend. The supply of commodities on the market is sufficient, and supply and demand are basically balanced. At the same time, industrial production prices have slowed, and the producer prices of industrial producers in the first quarter have increased by 3.7% year-on-year, representing an increase of 3.7 percentage points from the same period of last year. The balance of international payments is basically balanced. Since the beginning of this year, China's import and export trade has continued to grow rapidly. In particular, import growth has continued to exceed the growth rate of exports, and the surplus has narrowed. It can be said that imports and exports have become more balanced, and foreign exchange reserves have remained basically stable.
The second word is 'new'. The main manifestation is that the driving effect of innovation is very obvious. Mass entrepreneurship, innovation by many people thrive, stimulates market vitality and social creativity, and new development momentum continues to increase. This year, new market players are in a large number. Increased. According to statistics from related departments, in the first quarter, China's newly registered enterprises reached 1.32 million, and the daily average number of newly registered enterprises was 14,700. This is a very significant increase, which shows that the public is starting up businesses and people's innovations are greatly radiating their enthusiasm for business operation. New industries, new business models, and new models are booming. In the first quarter, the value-added of strategic emerging industries increased by 9.6%, which was significantly higher than the average growth rate of industries above designated size. Meanwhile, online retail sales increased by 35.4%, express delivery volume. More than 30% growth, the growth rate continues to accelerate. Now the entire 'Internet +' has been deeply integrated into various industries, various fields, has promoted many new business models, new business models, digital economy, platform economy, and the rapid development of the shared economy , Instilled new vitality for the economic development of our country.
The third word is 'you'. This is mainly reflected in the further optimization of the economic structure and the improvement of development coordination. From the perspective of the industrial structure, the leading role of the service industry continues to increase. The proportion of the service industry in the economy reached 56.6 in the first quarter of this year. %, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. The contribution rate of the service industry to economic growth reached 61.6%, and the contribution rate was 25.5 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry. Industry continues to advance towards the mid-to-high end, in industries above designated size, high The proportion of technology manufacturing reached 12.7%, and the proportion of equipment manufacturing industry reached 32.2%.
From the perspective of demand structure, the basic role of consumption continues to increase. The final consumer expenditure contribution rate to economic growth reached 77.8%, which was higher than the contribution rate of total capital formation by 46.5 percentage points. In consumption, consumption of goods is moving toward quality consumption. The change of material consumption to service consumption is a new change in the consumption field.
From the perspective of investment structure, investment is also making up for short boards, strengths and weaknesses, increasing momentum, and optimizing the investment structure. This year's investment in agriculture, investment in the social sector has increased by more than 20%. In industrial investment, high The proportion of investment in technology industry is constantly increasing.
The structure of foreign trade is also being optimized. From the trade perspective, the proportion of general trade is increasing; from the perspective of trade entities, the proportion of private enterprises' exports is further rising; from the perspective of regional, the growth of imports and exports in the central and western regions is significantly faster than the national average. .
The fourth word is 'good'. The main performance is continuous improvement of corporate profits, steady increase in residents' income, and active promotion of green development. Corporate profits have maintained rapid growth. Profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 16.1% year-on-year from January to February this year. The profit growth of the above-mentioned service companies was 4.5%, which was all the same as last year's high base. It was very difficult and very rare, which reflected the further improvement of corporate profits. The national income deduction price factor actually increased by 6.6%. Faster than per capita GDP growth shows that the income of residents is basically in line with economic growth. The green development is progressing steadily. The energy consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP has dropped by 3.2% year-on-year. The proportion of clean energy has risen. The efficiency of the use of energy resources has improved. Environmental quality, especially air quality, has continued to improve. .
Therefore, judging from these aspects, China's economy presents a situation of smooth operation and improvement of quality and efficiency. The stability, coordination, inclusiveness and sustainability of economic development have been significantly enhanced, laying a solid foundation for the sustained and healthy development of the economy throughout the year. A good foundation. Thank you.
Phoenix TV reporter:
We are concerned about the situation of foreign trade. Although this figure has already been announced, we would like to ask whether there is a preliminary estimate from the Bureau of Statistics. If the international environment continues to have some uncertainty, especially whether the trade friction between China and the United States will increase the situation in the second quarter or even the second half of the year. Impact How much impact?
Xing Zhihong:
The issues of foreign trade are all more concerned. China-US trade is not only a problem between the two countries, it is also an international issue. China has never deliberately pursued a trade surplus. In recent years, China’s trade surplus has continued to narrow, and exports have been able to grow. This is because China has comprehensive competitive advantages. At the same time, China’s imports continue to accelerate, reflecting the strong growth of domestic demand in our country. In China’s foreign trade, the trade balance is pursued. This balance is also conducive to the development of the domestic economy.
With regard to the issue of Sino-U.S. trade, the Chinese government has already demonstrated its firm position. The pattern of our opening to the outside world has been further expanded. The East is not bright and the West is bright. Our trade space is still very large. We can continue to maintain our competitiveness by continuously enhancing our competitiveness. Balance of export trade. Thank you.
China International Radio reporter:
Export, investment, industrial and other data indicators have declined. Does this mean that future economic growth potential will slow down and economic growth will face greater pressure?
Xing Zhihong:
If we talk about the situation in the first quarter, I mentioned it to you just now. In the first quarter, the economy is operating stably. You said that the so-called slowdown may be the data of March. Some indicators have some fluctuations, but mainly the influence of the Spring Festival. The Spring Festival is the most important traditional festival in China. Although the statutory holidays are only 7 days, the actual impact time will be longer. Compared to previous years, in the middle and late February, the Spring Festival this year will be slightly later. Festival, so the lag in the Spring Festival has a significant impact on the production of related fields. During the survey, export companies reflected that export companies had a clear pattern before and after the Spring Festival each year. Pre-holiday surprise exports, post-holiday imports preceded, and exports gradually increased. , The trade data for March this year were more obviously influenced by the Spring Festival. In addition, the working days in March were one day less than the same period of last year. The superposition of these two factors was the reason why some indicators fluctuate in March. With seasonal factors, we have found that the market in the relevant areas is positive and the trend characteristics of production growth have not changed.
As for the next phase of China’s economic development, it should be said that the favorable conditions and factors that currently support the high-quality development of China’s economy continue to increase, and China’s economy will continue to maintain a steady and positive development. From the perspective of supply, the vitality of the real economy In strengthening, the quality and efficiency of the supply system have been enhanced, and the foundation for economic development has been strengthened. The situation in agricultural production is relatively good, the strategy for rejuvenating rural areas has been implemented, the structural reforms in the agricultural supply side have been further advanced, the quality of agriculture has been increased, and green agriculture has led to agricultural cultivation. Structural adjustment, comprehensive agricultural efficiency and competitiveness are further enhanced. Industrial growth is stable. Industry grew by 6.8% in the first quarter and by 0.6 percentage points over the fourth quarter of the previous year. Of the 41 industrial categories, 37 industries maintained growth. In the situation, the growth rate reached more than 90%, which is larger than last year; capacity utilization rate is improving; the leading role of advanced manufacturing industry is also increasing. The service industry has maintained a steady and rapid development trend. The service industry production index has remained in the first quarter. More than 8%, especially in March, the service industry production index reached 8.3%, which was 0.3% higher than that in January-February, which was the highest point in the past six months. We have been strong in the emerging service industry represented by the Internet, to meet the people a better life needs of the service sector in particular, accelerate the development of well-being.
From the demand point of view, the basic role of consumption is outstanding, and the key role of investment in optimizing the supply structure is constantly emerging. Now is the co-development of internal and external demand, which promotes the relationship between supply and demand continues to develop in a dynamic balance and a virtuous circle. From consumption From the perspective of end-users, the final consumption growth is steady. The residents' consumption structure is accelerating, the consumption growth of upgraded goods is stable, and the integration between online and offline is accelerated. Not only is online retail sales growing faster, but also traditional businesses like department stores and supermarkets. The growth rate of specialty stores this year is also faster than that of the same period of last year, reflecting the positive impact of new retailing on the entire consumer sector. The growth of service-oriented consumption is strong. In the first quarter, movie box office sales increased by 39.8%. From the perspective of investment, structural optimization is the most important. The increase in non-governmental investment activity was achieved. Private investment accounted for more than 60% of total investment. It increased by 8.9% in the first quarter, which was 2.9 percentage points faster than last year. At the same time, the area of private investment was further widened. Effective investment increased, and some key areas were Intensified, it has a positive effect on the optimization of supply structure and the improvement of supply efficiency.
From the perspective of expectation, the reform and opening up drive has been continuously increasing the drive for innovation, and a series of policy dividends have been continuously released. Therefore, the economic expectations of the market players are all relatively good, and the confidence is obviously enhanced. In March, the manufacturing purchasing managers index accelerated, and 20 consecutive The monthly stay in the expansion zone, especially in March, the manufacturing purchasing managers index of large-, medium-, and small-sized companies all entered the expansion range. The non-manufacturing business activity index maintained at a high range of 54% or more for 7 consecutive months. Consumer Confidence The index reached 122.3, which is also a relatively good level in history. So from the perspectives of supply, demand and expectation, the endogenous driving force of the economy is increasing. This is the most important support for the sustained and healthy development of the Chinese economy. Thank you.
German World Reporter:
Just now you answered that the issue has already mentioned the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China's trade. What I would like to ask is: If this friction persists, what kind of overall impact will it have on the entire Chinese economy?
Xing Zhihong:
Some time ago, the United States ignored international trade rules and insisted on provoking trade frictions. This typical trade protectionism and unilateralism were generally worried in the international arena. China strongly opposed it and the Chinese government has responded resolutely and vigorously. Everyone is very concerned about the impact of the further development of Sino-US trade friction on the Chinese economy. What I would like to say is that after these years of development, China’s economy is currently stable, China’s economic stability, and coordination are Sustainability, economic toughness, potential, and plenty of room for maneuvering, Sino-U.S. trade frictions will inevitably affect the Chinese economy, and will not change China's sustained and healthy economic development.
In the first aspect, China’s economic resilience is good and its ability to adjust and adapt is strong. Through the supply-side structural reforms in recent years, through innovation-driven, it has stimulated the internal dynamics and vitality of the economy. More importantly, the economic structure has undergone major changes in this process. In particular, since the party’s 18th National Congress, economic growth has shifted from relying primarily on industry to industrial and service industries. From relying mainly on investment to investment and consumption, we have shifted from an export-oriented country to exporting and importing. The major powers in the world have greatly enhanced the stability and resilience of the Chinese economy.
In the past few years, the international economy can be said to undergo profound adjustments, and the external environment is rather complicated and severe. However, China’s economy has maintained a medium-to-high-speed growth and benefits to a large extent from the economic structure dominated by our domestic demand. Overestimating, from 2008 to 2017, the annual average contribution rate of domestic demand to China's economic growth has reached 105.7%, which is more than 100%. This means that we hedged the impact of weakening external demand through domestic demand, especially the impact of the international financial crisis on China. In 2009, the contribution rate of domestic demand to China’s economic growth exceeded 140%. Last year, the global economy witnessed a holistic recovery and external demand picked up. Even under such circumstances, the contribution rate of domestic demand to China’s economic growth remained at 90.9%. Therefore, this kind of structure is very important for us to deal with external shocks. In domestic demand, final consumer expenditure is the first pulling force, and it is the biggest engine. Just now I mentioned that in the first quarter of this year, the final consumer expenditure contribution rate was 77.8%. The year-round is 58.8%. Final consumption expenditure has been the first engine of China’s economic growth for the fifth consecutive year. Compared with exports, investment, consumption Mobility is significantly smaller, and therefore a change in our economic structure is essential for the stability of the Chinese economy.
In the second aspect, the potential is sufficient. We are now vigorously implementing innovation-driven development strategies. Development is the number one priority. Talent is the number one resource. Innovation is the primary driving force. Popular entrepreneurship and innovation greatly stimulate the vitality of the market. The number of enterprises increased to 10,000. Last year, the ratio of R&D investment to GDP reached 2.12%, which exceeded the average of 15 EU countries. We now have the second largest R&D investment in the world. According to the ranking of the world’s relevant organizations, China last year The innovation index ranks 22nd in the world. What is the concept of 22? It is the leader of middle-income countries. Entrepreneurial innovation has transformed our country from a demographic dividend in the past to a talent bonus. China has more than 170 million inhabitants. Education or talented people with professional skills, this is an amazing potential and is the hope for China’s economic development. It is precisely under the leadership of this kind of scientific and technological innovation that China’s economy has maintained a sustained and rapid growth. These years, China Economic growth rate has been at the forefront among major economies. Last year, the contribution rate of China’s scientific and technological progress reached 57.5%, contributing to the growth of the world economy. Rate of more than 30%, can be said that the continuous release of China's economic vitality, power, potential, the innovative force of our economy, competitiveness greatly enhanced, improving the ability to deal with complex situations.
In the third aspect, there is great room for maneuvering. China is a big country. Whether it is from the development of space or the industrial system or the macro-control space, we have great room for maneuvering. From the perspective of development space, China has a vast territory. The development gradient is obvious. It is precisely under this circumstance that China is accelerating the advancement of new-type urbanization, and has implemented four major sections and three major strategies to accelerate the coordinated development of regional coordination. The development potential of some regions is being further released, and new developments have been expanded. Space and new platform. From the perspective of industrial system, various industries in the midstream and lower reaches are very complete. This makes the industry supporting ability, scientific and technological achievements transformation ability, and risk-resisting ability stronger. Even if some industries are affected, others may still In accelerating development, we can hedge against the influence of other industries, and be able to make up for, promote, and support industries that are experiencing difficulties. This is a feature of China's economy. There is a lot of room for policy adjustment, and the economy is now maintaining steady development. , Financial and financial operations are stable, foreign exchange reserves are the largest in the world, there are many tools for policy control, and space is large, so China Full conditions and ability to deal with Sino-US trade friction, to cope with various risks and challenges, to maintain sustained and healthy economic development. Thank you.
China International TV Station CGTN Reporter:
The producer index of the service industry maintained rapid growth in the first quarter. The contribution rate of the service industry to economic growth was substantially higher than that of the secondary industry. What do you think about the future development of the service industry? Thank you.
Xing Zhihong:
In 2012, the scale of China's service industry surpassed that of the secondary industry and became the largest industry in China's economy. After that, the service industry’s driving role in economic growth has been significantly enhanced and it has become the main driving force for China’s economic development. Last year, the service industry accounted for the entire GDP. The ratio is 51.6%, and its contribution to economic growth is 58.8%. In the first quarter of this year, the proportion increased, the contribution rate further increased, and the speed of development is still relatively fast. It can be said that we have entered the service-led economic development stage. It is an important symbol of China’s economic transformation and upgrading. It is the result of the internal laws of economic development. It is also an achievement in structural adjustment and promotion of various policies. The sustained and rapid development of the service industry has several main factors:
First, the upgrading of the consumption structure has provided a broad market space for the development of the service industry. According to international development experience and economic theory, the development of the service industry is closely related to the level of residents' income. Now China has entered the ranks of upper middle-income countries. Last year, China’s per capita GDP was close to 9,000 U.S. dollars, residents’ incomes continued to increase, and middle-income groups continued to expand. The demand for services was undergoing a major change. The current consumption has a distinctive feature, shifting from past material consumption to service consumption, and now tourism, The consumption needs of culture, education, health, etc. are very large, injecting vitality and momentum into the development of the service industry.
Second, the deepening of the industrial division of labor, especially the current supply chain, value chain, reshaping of the industrial chain, has accelerated the pace of transition from an industrial economy to a service economy. We have entered the middle and late stages of industrialization, moving towards the mid-to-high end, manufacturing industry itself in the value chain. In the process of upgrading, there will be great demand for productive services in R&D, design, marketing, management, and logistics. From the data, it can also be seen that technology service, business service, and logistics service are the highlights of growth.
Third, the deepening of reform and opening up has further unlocked the hidden potential in the service industry. Now we continue to relax market access for the service industry. Recently, the general secretary in Boao said that it is necessary to further expand the opening up and the service industry is the main area for expanding opening up. In the trials of the China Free Trade Zone, the service industry has been a key content. For example, the restrictions on financial foreign shareholding ratios are being further relaxed, and the scope of opening up has been further expanded. Social investment in education, medical care and other fields, and the enthusiasm of foreign investment They are very high, which has injected new impetus into the service industry. Private investment has grown rapidly, and a large part of them has entered the social field.
Fourthly, the innovation drive has strengthened the internal driving force of the service industry. The large-scale application of information network technology has spawned many new business models and new models. These models have the most concentrated influence in the service industry and they have performed most prominently. Online medical services and online education services have a tremendous impact on the service industry. Therefore, new forms of business, new models, and new industries are constantly emerging. This is an important reason why service industry growth can maintain a relatively fast growth. Thank you.
Reuters:
You mentioned that the real growth of disposable income of residents in the first quarter of this year was 6.6%, which was lower than last year's 7.3%. Do you think this trend will continue? What is the underlying reason? The Chinese economy performed well in the first quarter. You think that What is the greatest risk faced by the steady economic growth trend and the rapid development of the economy?
Xing Zhihong:
I will first answer the question on income. In the first quarter of this year, the nation’s residents’ nominal income rose by 8.8% in nominal terms. This increase was 0.3% higher than the same period of last year. Both the nominal income of urban residents and the nominal income of rural residents were higher than the same period of last year. This shows that everyone’s moneybags are more drumming than last year’s. However, the actual growth rate has fallen from last year, mainly due to price factors. In the first quarter of last year, the price increase was relatively low. This year’s price increase was not high, at 2.1%. It should be It is said that this is a relatively modest increase, but it is uplifted compared to last year. This has had some impact on the real growth rate of current residents' income. However, we can see that China’s economic development has been stable and good, and employment has been continuously expanding. Mass entrepreneurship, continuous innovation and innovation, income distribution system continues to improve, and the country attaches great importance to household income growth, a series of policy effects to actively release. These will effectively support the simultaneous growth of residents' income and economic growth. In the first quarter, the residents’ income increased by 6.6% in real terms. This increase is higher than the increase in per capita GDP.
Specifically, corporate efficiency has continued to improve, and business operations are in good condition. This provides strong support for the growth of wages for the employees of the company. The growth of wages for employees is guaranteed. From the rural perspective, through the structural reform of the agricultural supply side, the rural one or two The development of the integration of the three industries, especially the increase in the output of some agricultural products and the increase in the prices of these products, have created favorable conditions for the growth of farmers’ operating income. The rural areas are still carrying out land reforms, and farmers have acquired property income through the transfer of land contracted management rights. Broadening income sources. So now the growth of farmers' income is even better than that of cities and towns. In the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of farmers' income continued to be higher than that of urban residents. The income gap between urban and rural residents has further narrowed, which is a good change. China’s governments at all levels carry out The central government’s guiding ideology has increased input in the area of people’s livelihood, the security standards have been continuously improved, and the coverage has been further expanded. Both urban residents and rural residents receive increasing transfer income. Therefore, the nation’s residents’ income will continue to maintain economic growth. Basic synchronization. In particular, we want to achieve a comprehensive well-to-do , The goal of doubling income is completely free from the current trend.
You just mentioned the difficulties facing the Chinese economy. At present, the biggest concern is the influence of the uncertainties in the international environment. The main long-term development in the country is unbalanced, and some of the issues that are insufficient are more prominent. The rise of trade protectionism in the world Some spillover effects brought about by the adjustment of the monetary policy of the economy and some turmoil in the financial market may have some impact on the Chinese economy. However, China’s economic strength is strong, its potential is sufficient, its toughness is good, and there is great room for maneuver. The Chinese economy will continue Maintaining a steady trend. Thank you.