On the one hand, lithium giant Ningde era IPO 24 days rushed to meet, refresh the IPO will be recorded; on the other hand, Kennedy Warren again announced shareholders reduction announcement, and announced the first quarter of this year, the loss exceeded 300 million yuan. Ruiwoeng Power ranked the third in domestic power battery installed capacity in 2017, second only to Ningde Times and BYD, and earned 254 million in the first quarter of last year. When the technical route was adjusted, the domestic new energy policy subsidy policy gradually withdrew, the power battery company washed The strength of the brand has been increased. Not only Ningde era and BYD seats were swapped last year, but many small and medium-sized enterprises' performance also declined.
Battery company hit by double-sided attacks
Buffett said that only when the tide receded, did he know who was swimming naked. Once in full swing in the new energy automotive industry, after the subsidy ebb tide, ushered in a big reshuffle.
On the evening of April 9, Gerry Vernon, who was involved in a debt crisis, said that the company’s loss rate increased significantly, mainly due to a decrease in revenue due to a decrease in orders from its wholly-owned subsidiary, Shenzhen Waterma Battery Co., Ltd., and a decrease in product gross margin. Wo Neng and Watmar said that there was misjudgment of the capital chain breakage incident and the impact on the market in 2017, which did not timely control the expansion of the scale, resulting in the failure to make timely payments. This opened the tip of the iceberg. .
Jianruiwoen was formerly known as Fortune Fire and acquired 100% equity in Watermar in 2016. It entered the lithium iron phosphate new energy vehicle battery and automotive power supply. However, the new energy auto industry is generally highly dependent on subsidies. Subsidy withdrawal Slope led to a drop in profits of battery companies. In 2017, BYD’s net profit also decreased by 19.51% year-on-year, and in the first quarter of this year it is expected to decline by 75.24%-91.75%.
The power battery is the core component of the new energy vehicle, the cost accounts for 30%-50% of the whole vehicle, the subsidy retreats, the power battery company also has to bear the corresponding price pressure. On the one hand, the customer puts pressure on the battery price reduction, while the other is the upstream supply. The prices of battery companies are arguably rising sharply, and the situation of battery companies can be imagined. Even in the Ningde era, which accounted for nearly half of the sales of triple lithium batteries in 2017, its main product power battery system gross margin for 2015-2017 was 41.40%, respectively. 44.84% and 35.25%, significantly decreased in 2017.
Today, these two factors still plague power battery manufacturers: First, raw material prices are skyrocketing. The most expensive cathode material is cobalt, which currently reaches 600,000 yuan per ton. The industry has the name 'cobalt grandma'. The second is the state subsidies. Slope, the subsidy amount of new energy buses in 2018 will be reduced by about 40%, and will be officially implemented on June 12 of this year. In 2017, the battery capacity with an energy density of less than 105Wh/kg will account for 50.7%. This part will have no subsidies this year. , Will promote the power battery industry to accelerate the reshuffle. It is expected that the new energy subsidies will be fully withdrawn in 2020, in the absence of subsidies with the international giants, will be a major test of domestic battery companies.
Power Battery Replacement
The data shows that the top five global power battery sales in 2017 were Ningde, Matsushita Electric, BYD, Waterma and LG Chemical, with sales of 11.84GWh, 10GWh, 7.2GWh, 5.5GWh, and 4.5GWh respectively. Overseas, Panasonic It is Japan's power battery leader. LG and Samsung are Korea's power battery players. They have huge scale advantages and they are leading in battery technology and automation.
In 2017, the shipment of power batteries in the Ningde era increased by 73%. At one stroke, Panasonic crossed the board and won the industry's No. 1 position in the world. Looking at the number of powered battery installations that can better reflect market share, the Ningde Era in 2017 was 10.4 GWh. A monopoly nearly 30% of the market. The company issued a valuation of 130 billion yuan, the speed and valuation of the stock is the number one battery.
In 2016, it was the No.1 power battery in China and the second largest in the world. With the sudden emergence of the Ningde era, its performance in 2017 was in decline.
However, due to the rapid increase in power battery capacity and the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, the price of power battery systems in the Ningde era was significantly reduced from 2.28 yuan/Wh in 2015 to 1.41 yuan/Wh in 2017, with a cumulative decline. It reached 38.26%. The net profit after deduction from the Ningde era also dropped from 2.96 billion yuan in 2016 to 2.47 billion yuan in 2017.
At present, the mainstream technology route for new energy passenger vehicles is ternary batteries (Sanyuan is also the main technical route in the Ningde era), namely lithium batteries with lithium nickel-cobalt-manganese oxide or lithium-nickel-cobalt-aluminate as cathode materials. Stabilizer is indispensable. Sanyuan Lithium has high energy density and can provide longer life. And by 2017, the price of triple lithium battery group has been reduced to a minimum of 1.4-1.5 yuan/Wh, which is basically the same as that of lithium iron phosphate. 3. The rise of Sanyuan Battery is an important reason for overtaking BYD in the Ningde era.
The days of SMEs are even harder
When the oldest boss in the industry switched positions, other small and medium-sized companies in China’s power battery also appreciated the industry’s cooling and heating—the largest of which was Waterma. The installed capacity in 2017 was only 2.3GWh. This company ranked fourth with last year. It is a listed company's Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which has a gap of only 0.4 GWh in the installed capacity of mobile lithium batteries. This is even a fraction of the capacity of both parties in the construction of the power battery. The planned production capacity of Watermaar in 2020 is 20GWh, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech The goal is even higher, 30GWh. Guoxuan Hi-Tech Co., Ltd., which specializes in new materials for iron-lithium power batteries, achieved a net profit of 920 million yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2017, a year-on-year decline of 10.73%.
Mainly engaged in the lithium battery business Chengfei integration, 2017 revenue of 2 billion yuan, a year-on-year drop of 9.04%; attributable to shareholders of listed companies net profit of -734.328 million, a year-on-year decrease of 156.16%, while the company's net profit in 2016 137 million yuan. This is the first time in ten years since Chengfei's integration. The Chengfei integrated main production of lithium iron phosphate battery, the main customer is a new energy passenger car, which is affected by the policy of slope degradation greater than passenger cars.
Power battery excess capacity
The data shows that in 2017, the installed capacity of new energy vehicle power batteries in China was 36.27Gwh, an increase of about 20% compared with the same period of last year, which was far from the estimated 50-60GWh in the industry at the beginning of 2017; and the lithium battery technology route has undergone tremendous changes. The market share of power battery is more than 44%, which has doubled compared with 2016. This is also something that could not be expected.
On the other hand, last year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China approached 800,000 units, an increase of 50% compared to 2016; among them, the output of new energy passenger vehicles reached 478,000 units, which represented a year-on-year increase of more than 200,000 units. Obviously, the power battery installed capacity The growth rate of the amount cannot keep up with the growth of the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles, because the production and sales structure of new energy vehicles has changed, and the proportion of passenger cars and special vehicles has risen rapidly. In the new energy bus market, the situation continues to spur new ones Energy passenger cars have become the core of power battery growth.
At the same time, the production capacity of the power battery has been seriously excessive. It is reported that in 2017, the entire power battery industry in China will have a capacity of more than 200 GWh, and the installed capacity is expected to reach 100 GWh by 2020.
The Ningde Times prospectus also reflects this point. In 2017, the production capacity of lithium-ion batteries was 17.09GWh, the output was 12.91GWh, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.54%. In 2015 and 2016, it was 96.92% and 92.37%, respectively. For two consecutive years of decline, the decline rate of 20%. This may be the company's response.
In the country, BYD is the most threatening contender in Ningde's era. This previous battery hegemony, the shipping scale was overtaken by the Ningde era last year. In order to regain the battery leader, BYD made two important adjustments: First, adjust the battery technology route Since the beginning of 2017, BYD has begun to use lithium-ion batteries on its passenger vehicle business, and pure-electric vehicles produced in 2018 and later will also use three-cell lithium batteries. However, Ningde Times, Guoxuan Gaoke and other batteries The company also began to expand its ternary battery capacity. The second is to split the power battery business into an independent operation and supply it to other new energy vehicle companies.
In the Ningde era has won nearly 30% of the domestic power battery market share - when BYD is double the time, BYD can return to the first, will be the future of China's power battery Aspect.
