When the automotive industry has generally touched the “electricity” and the pure electric vehicle market is nowhere to be found, we suddenly discovered that many companies have joined fuel cell vehicles. The demand for hydrogen fuel vehicles has gradually increased, and it has been hailed as even more. Sustainable development resources. Note that these companies do not want to 'sword away' but rather they plan for future 'multiple preparations'. In terms of the current development resources, policies, and social environment of hydrogen fuel new energy vehicles, How many opportunities can the hydrogen fuel vehicles take up in the future's full layout of 'pure electric cars + hybrid + plug-in hybrids'? The showdown between EV and FCV models, who will come to 'drink soup' in the future?
The next five years
Passenger car 'electric' dominant? Commercial vehicle 'Hydro'
In 2025, there will be drastic changes to the global automotive industry. According to national plans, new energy vehicles will become the absolute mainstream. Although the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has been put on the agenda, FCV hydrogen fuel cells will be developed in the next decade. What will the car do? Can we call the current EV pure electric car as the 'main theme'? In response, many car manufacturers related persons in an interview with reporters said that the next decade's passenger car market should be 'electric' Mainly, 'Hydrogen' supplemented. BYD chairman Wang Chuanfu believes that among the future electrified vehicles, the status of pure electric vehicles is very important. From a worldwide perspective, lithium batteries are still the mainstream, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are in the entire automobile. The proportion in the market is extremely small.
At present, Japan is only able to make hydrogen energy available in the passenger vehicle field globally. It is only planned to use hydrogen fuel cells in the commercial vehicle sector for connectivity. In China, only commercial vehicles have been reported. The demonstration of the promotion of hydrogen fuel vehicles with local governments is the news that in most of the next three to seven years of planning (2020-2025) for most vehicle companies, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be commercial vehicles. In the passenger vehicle sector, key technologies have not Substantive breakthroughs, few mature hydrogen fuel cell vehicle products.
In an earlier interview with this reporter, SAIC Vice President Lan Qingsong said that hydrogen fueled vehicles are more suitable for commercial vehicles because commercial vehicles have a larger body size, do not have to worry about the occupation of space in the vehicle, and have better mileage. Hydrogenation is fast, which significantly improves transportation efficiency. It is a good choice even for buses. In September last year, Changjiang Automotive hydrogen production base in Foshan was established. Its important product is hydrogen fuel cell bus, and future products are also used. Commercial vehicle field.
But after ten years, nobody knows. If the Honda fuel cell product plan is very aggressive, the target is that by 2030, more than two-thirds of the Honda product lines will be fuel cell models. At present, this ratio is only 5%. Vice Chairman of the International Hydrogen Association, Professor Mao Zongqiang of the Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology, Tsinghua University, said that in terms of hydrogen fuel cell cars, the current level in Japan is still ahead, and our country is catching up. Mao Zongqiang predicts that China will be 5~ In 10 years, it will be able to catch up with the Japanese level. In other words, by 2025, China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will penetrate into the field of passenger cars, and the technology will reach the world's top level.
2025 China has 120,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
In "Made in China 2025," China's development goal for fuel cell vehicles is: By 2020, about 1,000 fuel cell vehicles will be produced for demonstration operations; By 2025, hydrogen, hydrogenation, and other supporting facilities will be improved. The battery car can achieve small-scale operation in the region. At that time, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles on roads in China will reach 120,000. By 2030, China will implement the large-scale promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and there will be more than 1 million hydrogen vehicles on China’s roads. Fuel cell vehicles shuttle. As far as 'electricity' is concerned, our country's plan is that by 2020 all new energy vehicles will be planned for 2 million, of which self-owned brands of pure electric vehicles and plug-in new energy vehicles will exceed 1 million; by 2025 , with annual sales of 3 million vehicles, accounting for more than 80% in the domestic market.
In simple terms, according to China's current plan, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will have the scale of “large-scale deployment and application” by 2030, that is, 12 years later. Relatively speaking, pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles are large. The scale of application and promotion is just the moment. The difference between the development plans of the two is about 10 years. China Automobile Association stated that it is expected that the scale of production and sales of new cars in China will reach 30 million to 32 million by 2020. By that time, the production and sales volume of China's new energy vehicles will be planned. 2 million vehicles, accounting for about 6.5% of the total new vehicle. Of these, pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles accounted for about 50% of new energy vehicles, while hydrogen fuel cell vehicles accounted for less than 0.5. %, it is only expected to rise to 4% by 2025.
Most car companies choose 'two legs' to walk
How do major car companies plan the development of hydrogen or electricity? Two years ago, when the world was delineating the blueprint for the future of new energy vehicles led by pure electric vehicles, the reporters at the General Motors R & D center in Detroit, with the local The researchers’ guide saw the first time that GM and Honda had collaborated to develop a laboratory device for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (at the time it was still in the undisclosed stage). At that time, researchers from the General Motors R&D Center told us that GM’s future electrification direction , and will not put all the 'Bao' on pure electric vehicles. Sure enough, in February 2017, GM and Honda jointly announced plans to jointly manufacture hydrogen fuel cell systems, and set up a fuel cell joint venture, planned for 2020 Start production.
The reporter noticed that the traditional car companies insist on walking on the 'two legs' in the future of new energy vehicle routes. There are currently a number of first-tier hydrogen hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, including Toyota, Honda, General Motors, and Hyundai Motors. Toyota's Mirai is a representative product and Hyundai has also tested a self-driving hydrogen fuel cell car 'NEXO' at the Pingchang Winter Olympics. The German top three, Mercedes, BMW and Audi are also developing fuel cell systems. BMW is very A fuel cell-powered prototype will soon be announced, and it will agree to share technology with Toyota. Although for European car manufacturers, electric car products are still the current core, the BMW i series is the representative. Now it seems that there are two options. The competition between them is about to get hot.
On the other hand, domestically, the road to scale-up of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is still a long way off. Currently, the energy of most passenger car companies is fully devoted to the 'electric' war. At the end of March, Feng Xingya, general manager of GAC Group, traveled to the Honda headquarters of the Japanese company to exchange ideas. At the time, we deliberately went to the hydrogen energy vehicle display area, listened in detail to the introduction of hydrogen energy vehicles and hydrogen energy stations, and expressed keen interest in hydrogen energy vehicles. However, in the domestic market, GAC Group’s joint ventures and independent brands still put R&D at the center of gravity. In pure electric vehicles and hybrids, Geely Automobile Chairman Li Shufu said that 90% of Geely's sales of cars will be new energy vehicles in 2020, but in the planning, EV pure electric vehicles, HEV, PHEV Geely believes that this is what consumers need. Among the start-up companies, the six production qualifications that will eventually be obtained from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will all be pure electric vehicle manufacturers.
At present, domestic hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are not only rare, but also very 'partial'. According to incomplete statistics, SAIC Datong, Yutong Bus, Zhongtong Bus, BYD, Jinlong Automobile, Beijing Automotive Group, Foton Motors and other auto companies are all staring at hydrogen fuel. This 'new blue ocean', but all concentrated in the field of commercial vehicles.
New Energy Vehicles in the Future 'Hundred Flowers'
According to the latest statistics from the National Federation of Fellowships, cumulative sales of new energy passenger vehicles from January to March in 2018 amounted to 117,000 vehicles, a substantial increase of 136% compared to the same period last year. The growth momentum of new energy vehicles has shifted from the purchase of restricted purchases and subsidy policies to the first year of market pull. The strong performance of the market in the first quarter of 2018 fully shows that the trend of market-oriented demand is gradually being released, which is undoubtedly of great benefit to the entire new energy automobile industry. With the encouragement of many positive policies, the future demand for China's new energy automobile market will spiral upward, reaching a big step in the year.
Cui Dongshu pointed out that in China and other countries, the general idea of new energy vehicles in the future is to focus on the development of pure electric vehicles, but at the same time, the trend towards all kinds of new energy vehicles will be 'plumped together.' Lu Pei, Dean of the Beijing Branch of Shanghai Electric Apparatus Research Institute Said that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles seem to 'reverse' the trend of the development of pure electric vehicles, but they have not reversed the trend of the world, and even responded to the world's environmental protection trend. At present, new energy automotive technology does not say which is absolutely good, nor where The species is absolutely not good. Each has its own advantages and disadvantages. The choice of a variety of new energy sources can actually complement each other in its use. 'There will be a variety of fuels in the future, like ethanol gasoline, diesel oil, LPG liquefied petroleum gas, natural gas, etc. , is an additional choice.' Hangzhou Changjiang Automobile Co., Ltd. Chairman Cao Zhong said that in the future of vehicle energy, hydrogen fuel and electricity will coexist and complement each other to jointly support the development of new energy automotive industry.
