Maintenance lead | Polyethylene can rise steadily in the second quarter

In the first quarter, polyethylene showed a cliff-type decline. Until the end of March, the polyethylene market saw a turn for the better, and now they have entered an upward channel to stimulate the downstream to make up their positions. In the second quarter, they welcomed the opening in 2018. With the second quarter, the petrochemical maintenance season gradually came. How long can this wave of upswing last? Can it keep rising? Still need to wait and see.

First, the domestic polyethylene equipment maintenance plan

It can be seen from the table that in the second quarter, the polyethylene plant gradually began to stop and overhaul. For the moment, the Yanshan Petrochemical new high-pressure device continued to stop, and the Shenhua Ningco upstream cracking device failed to stop. Sichuan Ethylene, Shenhua Yulin, Fujian Union, Zhongtian Hechuang device Have entered the parking lot, and most of the maintenance time is longer. Follow-up devices are still gradually entering the planned shutdown maintenance, with the relative reduction in supply, petrochemical inventories are expected to gradually reduce. By the futures bottoming out, the spot surface of the petrochemical industry has an explosive tone As the price rose, it drove the downstream actively to make up for the short positions, and the atmosphere of the trading was positive. With the arrival of the petrochemical maintenance season in the second quarter, coupled with the downstream stocking of this wave of gains, petrochemical stocks were further consumed.

In the third and fourth quarters, the inspection and repair facilities gradually decreased, and most of the inspections in the second quarter had resumed production. However, with the launch of 'Jin 9 Silver 10', the demand side has basically improved and the inventory can be maintained at a low level.

Second, the downstream agricultural land operating rate trend

At present, the production of plastic film in the northern region is still acceptable. The operating rate is generally between 5 and 90%, and the daily output is between 10-50 tons. The output of individual large plants is relatively high. The demand for plastic film in the south is basically over, and a small amount of production or shutdown is mainly Demand for greenhouse films continues to weaken. There are few start-up manufacturers, some small and medium-sized enterprises start up in a small amount, the operating rate is generally 1-40%, and the daily production varies from 10-30 tons. Other companies still rely mainly on staged production or shutdown. With the gradual deceleration of the construction of downstream agricultural land in the second quarter, it is necessary to gradually fade.

On the whole, the maintenance season is concentrated in the second quarter, which will lead to a reduction in the supply of petrochemical products to a certain extent, and inventory is expected to fall to the normal position. However, the downstream demand gradually weakens, and the market may fall into two weak supply and demand situations. As the 'trade war' news gradually Digested in advance, futures continue to move up and lack momentum, coupled with this wave of market petrochemical gains' fierce and anxious', quickly pulled up highs led to slower downstream market, the market needs to enter the digestive stage, so the subsequent increase has slowed, rising steadily Still need more positive factors to drive it.