By 2030, China will become a major player in the global artificial intelligence industry. This is not the prediction of researchers or scholars, but rather the policy of the Chinese government.
The Chinese State Department issued a document in July last year and plans to develop China into a global leader in artificial intelligence research and application within the next 12 years. Governments around the world are supporting artificial intelligence innovation, but no other country has released a unified plan like China. More importantly, China has the ability to do this: China can implement established policies more forcefully than Western countries.
However, the plan is only one aspect. In the words of Tyson, the famous boxer, 'everyone has a plan before being beaten'. But China not only has a strategy, but past experience shows that China has the ability to implement large-scale, The ambitious project. The 'Belt and Road' infrastructure project is reshaping many regions of the world. The 'Popular Entrepreneurship, Mass Innovation' policy has raised US$320 billion in support of entrepreneurs, using technology and innovation to promote the structure from industry to service industry. Transformation.
Li Kaifu, the star of the Chinese technology industry, said: 'The State Council document clearly stated that by 2030 China will become a center for artificial intelligence innovation. These documents have been effectively implemented in various places. 'Li Kaifu has invested in about 300 companies. Investment fund innovation workshop, Kai-fu Lee is also a major investor in China's artificial intelligence startup companies. Innovation workshops manage 1.8 billion U.S. dollars to invest in China and the United States.
Li Kaifu pointed out: 'All ministries are thinking about this issue, from the Ministry of Science and Technology to the Ministry of Education.' He detailed a series of incentive measures, including subsidies, tax rebates, guidance funds and local government incentives. In China, local governments and private investment The players play an equally important role. 'Traditionally, the State Department's documents can quickly mobilize the entire country. We have seen the speed of China's high-speed trains, and the 66,000 incubators brought by the dual-creation activities (started in 2014) in more than two years. '
Lee Kai-fu, 56, is an ideal candidate for observing China's technology industry. He is in an unusual position. He is an outsider on the one hand, and an insider on the other.
Kai-Fu Lee was born in Taiwan, his parents immigrated to the United States and received a Ph.D. from Carnegie Mellon University. In 1990, he was named chief research scientist by Apple, engaged in product and management work, and then joined Microsoft in 1998. In Microsoft, He has held several senior positions including the formation of the Microsoft Beijing Research Institute.
In 2005, he was appointed president of Google China. After working at Google for 4 years, he announced his departure and started the operation of an innovative workshop. Currently, Kai-Fu Lee has become China's technology through investments in retail, transportation, financial technology and robotics. Circle star, with more than 50 million followers on Chinese social networks.
Over the past 10 years, China’s entrepreneurial culture has rapidly emerged. At present, the value of Chinese technology companies such as Alibaba and Tencent is surpassing that of their American counterparts. Kaifu Lee believes that China is enjoying a huge structural advantage, especially from the advantages of scale.
He said: 'Artificial intelligence fuel is data, and China has more data than other countries. Although the number of mobile phone users is only 3 times, but the number of mobile payments may exceed 50 times that of the United States. Through the processing of artificial intelligence engines, these Large amounts of data can be used for forecasting, improving efficiency, bringing more profits, reducing labor, and reducing costs. Data advantages are huge advantages.
In Western countries, the debate about the power and influence of technology companies and how they share and use consumer data continues. At the same time, Chinese users do not have such doubts, and technology companies also do so. Earlier this month At the time, Beijing Tangsheng Technology, a Beijing startup company that developed monitoring technology, had a US$600 million investment and a valuation of US$4.5 billion.
Kai-fu Lee said: 'Chinese users are willing to come up with personal privacy data for convenience or security. This is not a clear process, but a cultural element.'
However, only policies and market size are not enough. In order to use machine learning and other computer technologies to provide tools for future startups, talent is also needed in a global market.
Li Kaifu pointed out: 'There are a large number of engineering students ready to enter the field of artificial intelligence. Many people have the misconception that artificial intelligence is a smart scientist inventing different algorithms for different fields such as medicine, finance, loans, banks, self-driving cars, and facial recognition. However, artificial intelligence is not the case. The basic innovation of artificial intelligence is deep learning, and everyone on this basis customizes for different areas.
'So, we are not in the era of discovery, but in the era of implementation, the era of data. China has advantages in these areas, many executors, or excellent artificial intelligence engineers, who complete the work and let the algorithm run Faster, and connected to business logic. '
Li Kaifu believes that such an advantage means that Europe and the United States need to change the concept that Chinese technology companies are imitators, and admit that in fact, in certain areas China’s technology is first-rate. Such a change of concept is also beneficial to European and American companies. Kai-fu Lee believes that The biggest danger in Silicon Valley is that it is self-centered and smug.
Kai-fu Lee said: “From the perspective of logic, it is time to learn from China. However, in the real environment, I think that Europe and the United States must first realize that China currently leads in many technologies, business models, products and functions. For example, if we take WeChat compared with Facebook Messenger or WhatsApp. Comparing Weibo with Twitter, comparing Alipay with Apple Pay, we can see that China is ahead of the United States. From a logical perspective, the United States is the time to learn, but in reality the United States has not done so. Entrepreneurs know everything that happened in Silicon Valley, but very few people in Silicon Valley are very familiar with China. Some people know a little about China, and most people are ignorant of it. '
Kai-fu Lee believes that China's best area is to connect online and offline worlds through a complex sensor network, such as in a retail environment.
He said: 'Alibaba and Tencent are both developing or investing in physical stores. These physical stores are becoming more and more intelligent. They have added artificial intelligence technology, established an artificial intelligence-enabled supply chain, inventory management, and are still using Cameras and other devices to understand consumers, integrate online and offline consumer data, and even develop unattended stores.
In June 2017, the Innovation Workshop invested USD 4.4 million in the F5 Future Store, an automated retail startup located in Guangzhou. Since there is no salesperson, customers need to place orders via smartphones or place orders on the big screen in the store. In China, 90% of Internet activity is through mobile devices, which is also the foundation of many innovations, including the most complex and seamless mobile payment ecosystem. In this ecosystem, there are currently 700 million people online data connected to Ali. Baba and Tencent's payment account.
Kai-fu Lee said: 'With the best shopping mall layout, the United States has led the world. However, the future of the shopping center may be invented by the Chinese to provide a thorough online and offline integration, personalized for each consumer, Efficient combination of service-intensive products, such as children's play areas and recreational facilities, as well as automated services such as fast food and convenience stores, etc. Smaller, more efficient shopping will redefine the future shopping experience, which will be happening A large part of the online and offline fusion. '
Kai-fu Lee described the Chinese State Department officials as 'technical pragmatists'. He believes that this brings important advantages to entrepreneurs. Similarly, the orthodox concept of Silicon Valley is to encourage startup companies to launch imperfect products in the market and understand what kind of Feasible, then iteratively. 'Compared to the discussion of the perfect solution, and then implemented as the law (in some Western countries do), they tend to launch products, see how effective. If the effect is good, then Scale up, if there is a problem, then fix it. '
Of course, this may have an important economic impact: The American Truck Drivers Union is lobbying to try to protect the work of its members from the threat of self-driving cars. However, in China, such things will not have much impact.
This shows that with regard to the structural impact of technology on the workforce, there are cultural differences among legislators in different countries. At the same time, as the United States and China continue to consolidate their influence on the deployment of artificial intelligence technologies, smaller countries will It is disproportionately affected because these countries rely heavily on unskilled labor to develop the economy.
'More and more artificial intelligence companies and technology companies will occupy a disproportionate share of the value creation process. Many jobs will be replaced by artificial intelligence.' Kai-fu Lee said, 'Poor countries can use cheap labor to manufacture and The pattern of export growth has come to an end. I think this is a challenge for many small countries, especially those with underdeveloped technologies and countries where the workforce might be replaced by artificial intelligence.
U.S. and China’s dual hegemony will also have a geo-influence and form two different influence circles. One possible situation is that U.S. technology companies will dominate Europe and the United States, and perhaps Japan, while Chinese startup companies are more likely to The company's technology and capital cooperation establish its own position in the developing world.
Li Kaifu believes: 'Chinese companies have penetrated markets in Southeast Asia, India, the Middle East, and even South America. This is possible. It is good for China. But even without these markets, China is very strong. Many people outside of China are saying, 'You have to go outside of China to become a big global player'. Although I think globalization is a good thing, and China will make progress in this area, but I don't think this is very important because China has so far been The world's largest unified market. There is a unified language, culture, and government that are completely connected with mobile payments. This may be as important as adding the entire European and American market together.
Although the United States is still in the lead, Li Kaifu believes that the balance of power will shift. 'China obviously has a data advantage. China's engineering capability is as good as the rest of the world, at least as good as it is. China's entrepreneurs may be more powerful than other countries. The total amount of capital here is comparable to that of the United States, and the market is larger. The pattern of dual hegemony has become a reality. The only difference is that you may say that the United States still prevails today. But I think that such a comparison will inevitably change. . '