Gathering micro-network news, some media reports pointed out that the Japanese manufacturer of laminated ceramic capacitors (MLCC) Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd. announced that some MLCC items will stop orders on March 31 this year, mainly because the global demand for consumer electronics and automotive electronics will continue. The increase caused a gap in the supply and demand of MLCCs. Murata plans to adjust the old-fashioned production capacity. In response to market demand, it is expected that some MLCC items will cease production before the end of March 2020.
It is learnt that at present, the "old product group" where Murata has existing alternatives will reduce its production capacity by 50%. It calls on customers to find alternative suppliers, and then also sends out detailed specifications on the suspension of products. From the point of view of notification, the size of products that are scheduled to be discontinued. Covers 0402 to 1206. Last order is March 31, 2019.
MLCC suppliers pointed out that large-size MLCCs use more materials, have higher costs, and are relatively more productive. Murata, which is pursuing technology orientation, should shift its production focus to small-sized products with less materials and new technologies. The technical gap of other opponents.
This wave of MLCC stock-outs stems from the fact that Nissho has exited consumer products and other unprofitable product lines and markets, and has shifted its production focus to high-priced, high-margin areas for vehicles. The Japanese plant has a conservative business strategy and focuses on long-term strategies. Adding to the shadow of heavy penalties imposed by anti-monopoly investigations in the past due to price hikes, based on the maintenance of customer relationships, long-term market demand may change and avoid antitrust investigations and other considerations, it is the main reason for choosing “Ning to withdraw, not increase prices”.
According to market analysis, Murata Manufacturing has a 30% market share in the global MLCC market. The shift to deep-growing automotive MLCC products will release a large number of low-end MLCC market vacancies. Some production suspensions are expected to shift orders to Taichang and Korean factories. , Taichang, including Guoju, Huaxin Branch and Fuxuantang, are expected to benefit from the market transfer effect of electronic assembly foundry (EMS) customers.
According to industry sources, large-size, high-capacity and low-capacity MLCC products used in notebook computers and smart phones are particularly out of stock. In addition, MLCC products required for fast charging power supplies are out of stock. Continued. Manufacturers of mobile phones including Apple, Samsung and other handset makers from Huawei, Vivo and Oppo have expanded their ability to pull MLCC passive components. Plus fast charging requires high quality. The capacitor technology has a high demand for MLCC products. In addition, the number of automotive MLCCs has continued to increase, which has led to an increase in the overall supply of MLCCs.
Looking into the future supply of MLCCs, industry sources estimate that the current number of MLCC safety inventories for Taiwanese plants has averaged below 30 days, and the out-of-stock condition of some MLCCs may continue into the end of this year.
Observe the global laminated ceramic capacitor industry territory. Major manufacturers include Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd., Korea Semiconductor Corporation SEMCO, Taiwanese manufacturer Guo Ju, Huaxin Branch, Japanese manufacturers Taiyo Yuden, KEMET, AVX, TDK, etc.
Market participants pointed out that the current MLCC machinery and equipment delivery deferred to 8 months to 12 months, which also makes standard MLCC capacity expansion equipment encounter a bottleneck.
Passive components such as MLCC, aluminum electrolytic capacitors, tantalum capacitors, and solid capacitors have been out of stock in the past year. Expected to be out of stock this year, there is no solution. The market pays close attention to the effect of lack of material on the peak season effect this year. The problem of out-of-stock of solutions is also concerned by customers and investors.
In addition, equipment manufacturers also pointed out that the delivery of production machinery and equipment is prolonged, and some of them are related to the lack of passive components as an equipment manufacturer. Passive component suppliers pointed out that the new production capacity will be mostly opened in 2020, and the ratio of production capacity at that time will be exceeded. It is clearer whether or not the shortage problem is solved.
The source of this passive component in the supply of passive components started in the second half of 2016. It has been more than one and a half years since then. It is also not optimistic in the second half of the year. It is the longest period for the industry's shortage of goods, and it is contrary to past industry practice. Out of stock has caused many downstream system manufacturers to suffer from depression, and it takes longer to get out of stock.
Chairman Chen Taiming of Guo Ju had publicly stated that Guo Dao decided to expand production at the end of 2016. At that time, the production equipment delivery period was six to nine months; if the company only needs to buy equipment to expand production this year, the delivery period has been as long as 14 months to 18 months. If you did not expand your production two years ago, you will not even have equipment.
Passive component products such as MLCCs and aluminum electrolytic capacitors have plunged in price in the past. As a result, when they are out of stock, the industry thinks of lessons learned from “living gold and vegetable soil.” Production expansion is very cautious. In addition, upstream materials such as aluminum foil required for passive components are synchronized. Out-of-stock, long-term delivery of machinery and equipment, mixed with various factors, even passive component manufacturers can hardly say when they can meet the demand.
2. The supply of products across the board is tight The silicon wafers for integrated circuit materials are still in short supply;
Recently, the world's third largest supplier of integrated circuit silicon wafers for basic materials, Global Wafer, has publicly stated at its performance conference that all sizes of silicon wafers will be tightly supplied this year, including 6, 8, and 12-inch silicon wafers. Prices will rise from 2017, and the increase is higher than the fourth quarter of last year.
Global Silicon Board Chairman Xu Xiulan pointed out that semiconductor demand is far beyond imagination. She expects the price of silicon wafers to continue to rise next year. Currently, the visibility of global wafers' orders can be seen by 2020, and production capacity has been booked more than half. In 2019 Global Wafer's operating performance was robust.
It is reported that due to the development of technology trends, including smart homes, Internet of things, automotive electronics, electric vehicles, and mobile payment applications, semiconductor demand and application scenarios have rapidly opened up. At present, there appears to be no problem with the operational fundamentals.
Xu Xiulan pointed out that the current proportion of global wafer revenue is driven by the price of 8, 12 inches this year. It is expected that the proportion below 8 inches will decrease again in the second half of the year, and the proportion of 8, 12 inches will increase. It is expected to have Helping the overall gross profit rate performance. It is reported that the global wafer technology, cost, and management capabilities all have advantages. It is worth mentioning that Global Wafer has up to 16 factories worldwide, of which only two are self-covered, and the rest All 14 factories were acquired through mergers and acquisitions, and all were bought at discounted prices, so they gained cost advantages and were more competitive with newcomers.
It is understood that the world's top five suppliers of silicon wafers include Nissho Shinitsu Semiconductor (market share of 27%), Hi-Tech (26% market share), Taiwan Global Wafer (market share of 17%), Germany Silitronic ( Market share of 13%), South Korea LG (market share of 9%).
It is reported that Global Wafer’s Japanese subsidiary will increase its production of semiconductor wafers. The company’s president, Araki Takashi, said that due to the “requirements from memory-related and data centers climbing,” he decided to increase production. The current plan is mainly for 12-inch products. Japan’s Shin-Etsu Semiconductor also announced in August last year that due to the strong demand for semiconductors and boosting the demand for silicon wafers as a substrate material, supply and demand tightened, so it was decided to invest 43.6 billion yen in the Imari factory to increase production investment. The target is for 2019. Half a year will increase the monthly production capacity of 12-inch silicon wafers by 110,000.
The upstream silicon wafer material is controlled by people, and it has become an industry development for the rapid development of the integrated circuit industry in mainland China.
3. Foreign investors focus on the three major focus of TSMC earnings 7nm customer adoption rate tends to be conservative;
TSMC said that it will debut on Thursday (19th), and foreign companies will focus on the status of smart phone pull, advanced process progress, and operational outlook for the second quarter.
TSMC’s revenue for the first time in March exceeded 100 billion yuan. Most foreign investors believe that the large growth factor comes from the strong demand for custom-built chips (ASICs), semiconductor stockpiles, and the rebound of mobile phone power, and the operation is expected to maintain growth. However, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Securities and others believe that TSMC's revenue may decline this quarter.
Positive views of foreign brokers, such as JP Morgan Chase, Credit Suisse, etc., maintain the view that TSMC is optimistic about TSMC’s revenue growth this season. Gokul Hariharan, head of research at JPMorgan Securities Technology Industry, said that TSMC This quarter will benefit from the increase in demand for logic ICs and ASICs, cushioning the negative factors of the iPhone's off-season sales and a slight increase in revenue.
Randy Abrams, head of research at Credit Suisse Taiwan, predicts that TSMC’s revenue will increase by 1% to 3% during the quarter. Widespread use of semiconductors is the main thrust. However, Huawei, OPPO and other major mobile phone brands have launched new flagships. With only a clear increase in Huawei's specifications, there may be limited rebound in demand this quarter. We should focus on the impact of the mobile phone business on TSMC operations.
According to Zhan Jiahong, an analyst at semiconductor industry of Morgan Stanley Securities, TSMC's kinetic energy from ASIC and mobile phones may not be as expected. Originally, the team expects revenue to increase this quarter. The latest view has been reduced to 2% for the quarter. Deutsche Securities also recently adjusted to a recession. %, mainly due to the continuing downturn in demand for mobile phones.
As for the advanced manufacturing process, the foreign investment circle focused on the test results of the enhanced 7-nm manufacturing process. Due to the introduction of EUV technology into the process, its cost is high, and the test results are uncertain. Major foreign capital tends to be conservative for customers in the second half of the year, not excluding new Apple products. Generation 6.1-inch LCD iPhone still adopts 10-nanometer process. Economic Daily
4. Big manufacturers competing to put fan-out wafer-level packaging gradually become mainstream;
Since 2016, FOWLP has become the focus of attention in the semiconductor industry. Although FOWLP has its limitations in design, FOWLP still has a place in the market, with its own low-cost, high-performance features, with 3D IC technology. With continued development, the FOWLP momentum continues to rise.
The Fan-Out Wafer Level Package (FOWLP) is the latest hot topic in the semiconductor industry. Since TSMC announced in 2014 that it will enter the FOWLP market with its InFO process, it will formally begin in the second quarter of 2016. After the introduction of mass production, multi-die packaging technology has finally become mainstream in the market with features such as low cost, small size, low power consumption, and high performance.
FOWLP advantages
In simple terms, FOWLP is a new method of combining multiple grains from a heterogeneous process into a compact package (Figure 1). It is not the same as the traditional Silicon Interposer.
The main features and advantages of FOWLP are:
‧ No residue silicon wafer
Although FOWLP typically requires the use of silicon wafers as a carrier, silicon wafers do not remain in the package. The die-to-die and die-to-ball grid array package (BGA) connections are directly through the package's redistribution layer. (RDL) to achieve.
‧ Lower costs
FOWLP does not require an interposer or TSVs, so the cost is lower. Moreover, there is no need to worry about the negative effects of TSV on electrical characteristics.
‧No substrate package
FOWLP is a substrate-less packaging method, so its vertical height is low. In addition, shortening the distance from the heat sink is also less worrying about thermal shock.
‧ Implement POP design
Thanks to the thinning advantages of eliminating the substrate and interposer, FOWLP can provide additional vertical space for more components to be stacked upward. This is achieved through the TPV and can be further realized. Package-on-package (POP) design. Unlike TSVs, TPVs are more like traditional Vias, so there is less worry about yield and reliability. This is especially useful when integrating third-party DRAMs in packages. 2 ).
Although FOWLP has the above advantages, it does not mean that it has no specific design challenges.
Data Exchange Limited FOWLP Design Difficulties
Package design and integrated circuit (IC) design are two different processes. ICs are mainly designed in the Linux operating environment using electronic design automation (EDA) tools and process design kits that are certified on specific foundries. System-on-a-chip (SoC) designs are typically built using Manhattan geometry and presented in a grid-like format such as GDSII or OASIS. When finalized, grain extraction (ie, grain size and individual pins The location will be transmitted to the packaging team using other formats (eg LEF, AIF, etc.). After the IC design has been signed, the file will be exported to the fab for manufacturing.
Package designers typically design using EDA tools implemented in the Microsoft Windows operating system. Package designs use non-Manhattan geometry in large quantities and often do not precisely map to the grid-like format of the IC design. In terms of data format, there are very few common standards in the field of IC and packaging. Package design and physical die are usually transmitted to packaging companies or outsourced packaging and testing (OSAT) using various formats such as AIF, MCM, ODB++, and Gerber. ) Industry.
The introduction of FOWLP design requires communication between the IC design and packaging design fields in order to overcome the data exchange limitations described above. In order to optimize the entire package design, IC designers must understand the design intent of the package better, and at the same time, package designers. It is also necessary to understand more about the IC components in the package. For example, if you want to optimize the size or performance of the package design, you must optimize the entire system, not just the individual elements.
The IC designer may be able to design a very sophisticated IC, but doing so will make the connection of the die in the package more difficult, thus increasing the footprint of the package. Similarly, the packaging designer may It is possible to design a compact and compact package, but this may cause IC designers cannot pair their die input/output (I/O) to a specific location. This is where package integration tools can function (Figure 2) This type of tool optimizes the synergy of the design and allows smoother communication between the two parties.
Data format conversion to solution
Fortunately, even though there are few common standards between the two areas of chip and package, it does not mean that new standards need to be drafted to make up for this drop. On the contrary, the conversion between data formats may be a better way. Meet everyone's needs, but still need tools and tools interface and communication standards.
Although the communication between Microsoft Windows and Linux is not easy, but based on experience, the use of virtual network connection (VNC) can still be completed. The market's first commercially available FOWLP methodology is the embedded wafer-level ball grid array developed by Infineon. (eWLB) packaging technology. However, if OSAT industry adopts exactly the same way, it is difficult to compete.
As a result, all major OSAT players are developing their own FOWLP processes. Together with TSMC joining the battlefield with its own InFO process, packaging design companies now have many production options. However, it is up to you to decide which one is a specific design. The best choice for demand is very complex. Generally speaking, in addition to the price, the product plan is usually measured by the package footprint they can provide. The footprint is determined by the minimum vertical height, and the minimum The horizontal coverage is based on the minimum spacing between grains, and the minimum line width and spacing for interworking between RDL and BGA.
The selected OSAT or foundry
In addition, packaging designers face another challenge, that is, the choice of OSAT or wafer foundry.
The main benefits of wafer foundry claims are: ̇ Ability to share manufacturing lines, so shorter manufacturing cycle ‧ Single contact window and one-stop shopping. ‧ With decades of complete design kits and certified design tools Experienced.
However, what TSMC or other pure-brow foundries can't achieve is that they can't produce packaged components that contain multiple fab die. For example, it's impossible for industry to send Samsung-manufactured die to TSMC and put it in In the InFO package, on the one hand, with a single foundry, there is no need to send the die from the foundry to the OSAT industry, saving time and ensuring that all information is not lost through the end; Choosing an OSAT operator allows customers to have the freedom of the wafer source and therefore has more control over the cost of the overall packaging solution. With different wafer fabs' manufacturing methods, this choice will also affect the overall FOWLP package. the price of.
Most importantly, regardless of the choice of a foundry or OSAT player, FOWLP will have a place in the market. However, it is not intended to replace all designs that require a silicon intermediate layer, but to achieve a number of important advantages. The design methodology, these advantages are what packaging designers want to have. With the continuous development of 3D IC technology, we expect the FOWLP market will continue to grow in the next few years. (The author of this article works in the Mentor business unit of Siemens) New Electronics
5. Guo Mingyao: HomePod only shipped 200 to 2.5 million units this year;
Apple's sprint smart speaker kicked the iron plate, HomePod shipments were much lower than expected, KGI's analyst Guo Minghao pointed out that this year the product is estimated to ship only 200 to 2.5 million units, unfavorable to Inventec (2356), Hon Hai ( 2317) and other related supply chains.
Guo Mingyi estimates that HomePod shipments will be much lower than originally expected. The market estimates that this product will be able to reach 500 to 10 million this year, but KGI believes that it can only reach 200 to 2.5 million units, and nearly half of them are sold. Within one month after release.
Guo Minghao believes that the main reason for the poor sales is that Siri voice assistant's experience is not as good as that of its competitors. Despite having excellent sound quality, higher prices affect sales demand.
Keckie said that shipments from HomePod were lower than expected, highlighting Apple's concerns in developing AI. At present, AI voice assistant Siri has been launched for more than 6 years, significantly earlier than the competition, and a large number of iOS and Mac OS users are also favorable. But for most users around the world, Siri is not a necessary feature, and Apple is not the leading brand of AI voice assistant.
Guo Mingzhe pointed out that HomePod has not supported the new language system since its release. It represents Apple's unsatisfactory development in the global AI voice management market and affects HomePod's shipment kinetic energy. Therefore, it proves that Apple’s innovation challenge in recent years is software, and its development has lagged behind hardware. Unfavorable to Apple's integrated software and hardware innovation strategy, investors are advised to focus on Apple's WWDC software layout.
In addition, the low-cost version of HomePod may help with short-term shipments. KGI estimates that Apple is evaluating its possibilities, but even if the product debuts, it may have only a short-term effect and still needs a better user experience. Better AI voice assistant support can compete with Amazon and Google in the smart speaker industry.
At present, HomePod is assembled by Inventec and Hon Hai. The proportion of orders is approximately half. Legal person believes that despite the poor performance of shipments, due to the initial forecast of sales volume is low, the impact on Inventec and Hon Hai this year will be affected. Not much. United Evening News