Recently, new energy vehicle power lithium battery companies have successively released 2017 performance reports. The Beijing News reporter sorted 18 power lithium battery companies and found that due to the continued expansion of demand in the new energy market, 9 companies are producing lithium, cobalt and other raw materials. The upstream business of the main company achieved expected growth in 2017, and some of them also achieved exponential growth. However, due to the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2017, the prices of upstream raw materials have increased, and the cost pressure on downstream companies in the power battery industry chain has continued to increase. Lunshi Technology, Xiongfu Co., Ltd., Fluoride, Xingyuan Materials, Anderson Technology, Tianci Materials, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-tech, and 9 Kangneng Group saw a slowdown in performance growth and a significant drop in net profit. For example, lions Technology suffered a loss of 129 million yuan in 2017, a sharp drop of 236.98% year-on-year; BYD's 2017 net profit also failed to achieve positive growth, which was a decrease of 19.5% year-on-year.
Analysts in the industry believe that the power battery industry is currently facing the 'bright eyes' of the upstream and the bleak "downturn" of the downstream. Experts predict that the power battery industry will usher in a brutal reshuffle in 2018, and mergers and acquisitions between upstream and downstream companies will become more frequent. , Related companies should improve product competitiveness to deal with market shocks.
Subsidy landslide caused damage to profit
The Beijing News reporter compared the annual report of 18 power battery listed companies and found that lithium-ion companies with large increase in performance in 2017 were mainly concentrated in the upstream of the industry, while enterprises with lithium-cobalt and cobalt-based raw materials production all achieved a significant increase in performance. Most companies are According to the report, the growth of the company's performance is mainly due to the strong demand in the downstream lithium battery market, which drives the rapid growth of the upstream battery materials industry. The industry generally believes that the new energy market will continue to expand in 2017 and form a lithium battery material company with upstream metal mineral resources. Good.
However, due to the adjustment of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2017, the prices of domestic power batteries have generally declined, but the prices of lithium and cobalt in the upstream raw materials have remained at a high level. This has led to enterprises in the middle reaches of the industrial chain, and downstream power battery companies are facing 'double-sided extrusion'. ', Profitability is also adversely affected.
According to incomplete statistics, in 2017, Mengshi Technology, Xiongfu Technology, Fluoride, Xingyuan Materials, Anderson Technology, Tianci Materials, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and Baikang 9 power battery company net profit declined significantly.
From the perspective of materials companies, the performance report of the Fluoride released shows that the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2017 was 257 million yuan, which was 46% lower than the same period of last year. Fluoride said that the main reason for the decrease in performance was new energy sources. With the fall of auto subsidies and the decline in demand for lithium salts, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has dropped to a certain extent, which has led to a decline in the profitability of products and a decrease in gross profit margin.
The net profit of Xingyuan Materials in 2017 was RMB 107 million, which was a decrease of 31.06% year-on-year. The company stated that due to the 2017 subsidy standards for new energy vehicles, the subsidy standards and strict subsidy policies have not been promptly landed and other factors affect the downstream customers' batteries. Manufacturers' demand for battery separator products has slowed down, resulting in a drop in net profit. Godsend materials also indicated that the drop in the sales price of lithium-ion battery electrolyte led to a decrease in gross profit margin, and net profit decreased by 23.02% year-on-year.
From the aspect of power battery companies, the net profit of Xiongpu Co., Ltd. attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2017 was RMB 36 million, which was a decrease of 69.77% year-on-year. The announcement showed that the purchase price of raw lead ingots rose rapidly during the reporting period, resulting in a decrease in short-term gross profit margin. , The company's profits fell.
Due to the cost pressure brought by the soaring prices of upstream raw materials, Guoxuan Hi-tech Co., Ltd.’s net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2017 was 920 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.73%. Anderson Technology also attributed the 2017 company’s net profit down by 24.45% year-on-year to: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate, the main raw material, has risen, causing the cost of lithium iron phosphate to increase. The adjustment policy for new energy vehicles has led to an increase in the number of applications for relevant subsidies.
At the same time, BYD, one of the largest power battery manufacturers in China, also failed to achieve a positive growth in net profit in 2017. According to BYD's 2017 annual report data, its 2017 operating net profit was 4.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%. The internal staff once revealed to the media that the sharp decline in profits was due to subsidy withdrawal.
It is not difficult to see that for the reasons for the decline of profits, the explanations of many companies are mainly concentrated on the increase of raw material prices and the subsidy for retreat. A power battery distributor told the Beijing News reporter that 'by battery materials, electrolytes, separators and other raw materials With the increase in prices, the profitability of the power battery industry has been greatly squeezed. With the subsidy for new energy vehicles retreating, small-scale enterprises have reached a break-even or even a loss. At the same time, the adjustment of new energy policies has raised the capabilities of enterprises in all aspects. Requirements, downstream companies will become increasingly difficult to survive.
Overcapacity problems highlighted
It is worth noting that the problem of overcapacity of power batteries is also becoming increasingly prominent. Some experts pointed out that in the past few years, the domestic power battery industry generally suffered from the surplus of low-end products and high-end products, especially in 2017.
The research data of the Institute of Advanced Industrial Production and Lithium Research shows that in 2017, the installed capacity of new energy vehicles in China reached 44.5GWh. However, it is estimated that in 2017, only 36.24GWh of battery power was installed in the country. At the same time, the relevant data shows that the 2017 battery The annual production capacity of the industry reached 200 billion yuan, and the excess capacity of power batteries reached 157%.
The Ministry of Science and Technology recently released the “2017 China Unicorn Enterprise Development Report” also pointed out that 2018 power battery capacity will reach peak. According to reports, including 2018 BYD, Guoxuan Gaoke, billion latitude lithium energy, including 7 The home power battery company expects the total capacity to reach 135 GWh, which is expected to reach 178 GWh in 2020. According to a new energy vehicle equipped with 45 kWh battery, only the above 7 companies can produce 3 million new energy vehicles in 2018. In 2018, China's new energy vehicles are expected to produce about 1.1 million cars.
In light of this trend, industry insiders predict that the power battery industry will inevitably face severe overcapacity in the next two to three years. The long-term surplus also means that the new energy battery market must continue to face price wars, and profit declines. .
Increase the threshold to increase the survival of the fittest
In order to alleviate the difficulties, the country began to expel low-end production capacity at the technical threshold. From June 12, 2018, the new "New Energy Vehicle Promotion Subsidy Program and Product Technical Requirements" will be implemented. According to the document, passenger car, pure electric The minimum cruising mileage subsidy standard for passenger vehicles has been increased from 100 km to 150 km; the minimum standard for power battery capacity density has been increased from 90 Wh/kg to 105 Wh/kg.
The improvement of technology threshold will also accelerate the promotion of the survival of the fittest in the industry. With the intensification of competition, the battery industry may face a new round of reshuffling.
According to the statistics of third-party research, there are 109 power battery manufacturers in China in 2016. By 2017, there will be only 80 leftovers. Prince Dongdong, a power battery expert, has publicly stated that the number of power battery supporting enterprises will be reduced by half in 2018. By 2020 There are only 10 to 20 remaining power battery companies.
A research report of the Institute of Advanced Industrial Production and Lithium Research also pointed out that more than 90% of lithium battery companies in China will be merged, reorganized or bankrupted within the next three to five years, and the number of vehicles that can truly enter the vehicle supply system will not exceed 20 Home, and production capacity will be highly concentrated in the top few.
Some analysts believe that in the long run, battery companies want to gain a firm foothold, and must establish a close alliance of industrial alliances. In addition to ensuring the continued stability of the capital chain, we must continue to increase product gold content.
An analyst at GF Securities told the Beijing News reporter that companies can only continue to introduce high-quality products to increase their core competitiveness and drive sales growth, so as to digest the impact of subsidy reduction, and to survive in the competition for new energy power batteries. '. The analyst believes that 'the ultimate competitiveness is the product, high-quality products not only increase the voice of suppliers in trading, but also reduce production costs and expand profit margins.'
