This article analyzes that:
The average single-family capacity of household photovoltaics continues to increase. Although 5kW is still the mainstream, due to the promotion of the 'PV loan' model and the application of high-efficiency photovoltaic modules, the proportion above 10kW continues to increase.
In 2017, the average size of households within the scope of the State Grid is 9.8 kW, which will increase further in 2018.
First, the average number of households in the country's network within a single set of 10kW
Not long ago, a paragraph in the White Paper 2018 Promoting New Energy Development issued by the State Grid attracted the attention of the author:
In 2017, the number of new grid-connected households with distributed photovoltaic power generation in the State Grid operating area was 315,000, which was 4.5 times the number of newly added grid-connected households in 2016. The new grid-connected capacity was 3.076 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 208%. .
Therefore, according to the statistics of the State Grid, in 2016, the number of new household PV installations and installation capacity in 2017 is shown in the table below.
Table: Domestic PV Installations in 2016 and 2017 in State Grid
As can be seen from the above table, within the scope of the State Grid, the volume of single-use photovoltaic photovoltaics for homes in 2017 increased by 2.1 kW, which is close to 10 kW.
The capacity of domestic photovoltaic single sets is increasing year by year. This situation is also confirmed by the data obtained from inverter companies.
Second, inverter enterprise data
In October 2017 and March 2018, the author learned about the sales of inverters with power levels from 3 to 20 kW from inverter companies. It was found that:
A weighted calculation of the inverter shipment data.
The average size of January-October 2017 is 6.9 kW;
The average size of January-February 2018 is 8.5 kW.
Compared with the former, the latter has increased the size by 1.6 kW!
Different types of inverters account for the following figure.
Figure: Sales of inverter models at different times
As can be seen from the above figure,
1) Compared with data from January to October of 2017, the proportion of aircraft models within 5kW in February 2017 was significantly reduced, while the proportion of aircraft with 10 to 20kW increased significantly.
2) Two surveys, the largest proportion of mainstream models are 5kW, close to 40%;
3) The second largest model is 3~5kW from January to October 2017, and 10~15kW from January to February of 2018!
Third, the reason analysis
Personally think that the above situation is mainly based on the following two reasons
1) Promotion of loan models
Early installations of PV homes were more about adopting a self-paid model. As a result, the family's ability to pay has limited the size of the installation. Therefore, the overall installation is smaller.
Since the end of 2016, more than 60 banks have launched 'photovoltaic lending' to give home photovoltaic power to support them. In contrast, residents install photovoltaics as wealth management products. The greater the installed capacity, the higher the return. Therefore, many households adopt loan models. Leverage on the original purchasing power has led to an increase in the installed capacity.
According to the data in the “2017 China Household PV Market Research Report” completed in the first half of 2017, more than 50% of users in the country have adopted different ratios of loan models. At the same time, the loan period is mainly within 3 years, and a small amount has been adopted. More than a year's repayment method.
The data from the “China Photovoltaic Industry Survey Report (2017~2018)” completed in early 2018 also showed that about 38% of people chose the loan model, as shown in the following figure.
Although the investigation time and the survey population of the two survey data are different, the conclusions are basically the same, that is, about 40% of home PV adopts a loan model, which is installed on a larger scale through additional levers.
2) Application of high-efficiency photovoltaic modules
In the early days, large enterprises did not pay much attention to the household market. Therefore, the household market uses inefficient photovoltaic modules, mainly 260W, 265W. Since the second half of 2017, major companies have launched their own household brands. , The application of some high-efficient components of the field of use.
For example, Zhongmin Zhihui's household system uses products above 280W; Longji Leye even pushes 300W or more components on the consumer's side; Artus plans to use the latest 310W product on the consumer side.
The installation area of general households is limited. The application of these high-efficiency components increases the installation capacity of a single household.
It can be seen that the promotion of PV loans and the application of high-efficiency components will continue to promote the average single-family capacity of household PV. It is expected that the proportion of household systems with more than 10kW will continue to increase in 2018, and the average single-home PV installation capacity may exceed 10kW.
