If current policy trends remain unchanged, it is expected that lithium iron phosphate batteries will gradually exit the electric car market in 2018 and beyond.
On April 12, Mo Keke, chief analyst of Real Lithium Research, published the above viewpoint at the 3rd Nickel-Cobalt Lithium Industry Chain Summit and Cathode Materials Trading Seminar. He stated that it is expected that in 2019, lithium iron phosphate battery will completely withdraw from the pure In the electric passenger car market, the proportion of pure electric buses will also decline year by year, and its focus will be on the low-speed electric vehicle market, but the market will also face strong competition from Sanyuan Battery.
According to the type of car, pure electric cars can be divided into pure electric passenger cars, pure electric passenger cars and pure electric special cars.
In 2017, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the pure electric bus market is still very large, close to 90%. However, Merck expects this ratio to drop to 75% in the next three years (2018-2020), 50 % and 25%.
According to the data from the Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (GGII), in 2017, the domestic installed capacity of battery power was approximately 36.39 GWh, which was a year-on-year increase of more than 20%. The lithium battery technology line has undergone tremendous changes in the past year, and Sanyuan Power Battery is in market share. The proportion of more than 44%, compared with 2016 doubled.
In the Ningde era, lithium iron phosphate battery companies such as BYD (002594.SZ) and Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074.SZ) have all started to expand their ternary battery capacity. In August last year, Guoxuan Hi-Tech announced that its subsidiaries will be metallurgically with China. Jiangxi Science and Industry Group Co., Ltd., BYD, and Tangshan Caofeidian Development Investment Group Co., Ltd. jointly laid out ternary cathode materials. The registered value of the newly established joint venture company was 937 million yuan. In addition, BYD is expected to expand its Sanyuan battery capacity of 10GWh in Qinghai this year.
Meike believes that the lithium battery industry began to adjust in depth in 2017, with the focus shifted to pure electric passenger vehicles. After the subsidy is linked to the battery energy density, the rapid growth of ternary lithium batteries exceeds industry expectations and the ternary battery line will quickly occupy Dominance.
'The pure electric passenger car will be the focus of growth in the next few years, and it is expected that the year-on-year increase in 2018 will be close to 50%.' Mo Ke said. According to his prediction, the total installed capacity of power batteries will exceed 100GWh in 2020.
The adjusted new energy subsidy policy will be formally implemented on June 12 of this year. The new policy divides the subsidy into six gears according to mileage. The calculation method is: Subsidy amount = mileage subsidy standard * Battery system energy density adjustment factor × vehicle energy consumption adjustment factor.
The new subsidy policy will promote the power battery industry to accelerate the reshuffle. In 2017, the battery capacity with an energy density of less than 105Wh/kg accounted for 50.7%, and this part will not be subsidized in the new program.
Meike said that the new subsidy policy has a greater impact on pure electric buses, and the competent authorities are making greater efforts to stimulate technological progress. 'In terms of pure electric passenger vehicles, the new program’s 100km power consumption requirement has been reduced by an average of 12.6%. Nearly 30% of the products. '
According to the statistics of China Battery Network, in 2017, there were 35 mergers and reorganizations in the lithium battery industry chain, and the transaction amount exceeded 46.5 billion yuan. The industry concentration has also increased. The total market share of the top ten power battery companies in 2016 shipments was 69.8. % In 2017, this number increased to 82.4%. Among them, only the Ningde era accounted for nearly 30% of the overall market share.
The decline in subsidies also led to a drop in the profitability of battery companies. In 2017, BYD’s net profit fell by 19.51% year-on-year. In the first quarter of this year, net profit is expected to decline by 75.24%-91.75%.
In addition, Mo Ke also stated at the meeting that in terms of technology development, Chinese battery companies have caught up with foreign companies, but there are still gaps in production quality. Overall, China's battery industry level will be comparable to that of South Korea in 2020.
