First, the production and sales of new energy vehicles prospered and the 2018 battery decommissioning tide started.
With the rise of international oil prices and the increasing attention of countries to environmental protection issues, new energy vehicles have gradually become the development trend of the world's automotive industry. Policy tilt has increased, large-scale car companies have been occupying the beach, and consumer awareness of environmental protection has continued to increase, resulting in new The energy automobile market has expanded rapidly. In 2009, the intensive support policy opened the fast track for the growth of China's new energy vehicles. In 2011, the industry entered the stage of industrialization. In 2014, China’s electric vehicle market showed a blowout situation, with production and sales volume both rising year-on-year. More than doubled. In recent years, production and sales have been booming. In 2017, the cumulative production of new energy vehicles was 774,000 units and sales reached 772,000 units, an increase of 53.8% and 53.3% respectively from the same period of last year. The compound annual growth rate of the production of 2014-2017 was 104%. %. The National 13th Five-Year Plan proposes that the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million by 2020. Recently, the central ministries and commissions jointly announced that the policy of exemption from taxation on electric vehicles will continue until 2020, and the tilt of the policy will further prove that electric vehicles are the future. Development of the mainstream. It is expected that sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 1 million units by 2018. The explosive growth of the pool industry.
It is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 3 million by 2020
Demand for power batteries has been rising year by year, and is expected to reach 138GWh in 2020
In 2014, the production of power lithium batteries followed a significant increase in the production and sales of new energy vehicles. Shipment volume increased fourfold year-on-year. In 2015, lithium-ion battery production jumped to 16GWh from 4GWh in 2014, a year-on-year increase of 314%. New energy output in 2016 The total amount of batteries carried by the vehicle reached 25GWh, a 63% increase from 2015. In 2017, the demand for power batteries reached 36GWh, an increase of 42% compared to 2016.
The rapid growth of the power battery market in 2014-2015 is expected to bring the peak of power lithium recovery after 2018. According to the forecast of Dongwu Dianxin Group, it is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will exceed one million in 2018, among which, the passenger vehicle + dedicated The demand for vehicle batteries is expected to reach 40GWh, and the demand for commercial vehicles is expected to reach 13GWh. According to the three-year battery life of commercial vehicles and the battery life of passenger vehicles for five years, the power lithium battery recycling market is expected to reach 11GWh in 2018. It is expected that the theory will be 2020. The amount of scrapped up to 28GWh, the power lithium battery recycling market will reach 14.8 billion yuan.
Waste lithium battery recycling market is expected to reach 14.8 billion in 2020, and step utilization is the new growth point.
Second, the use of ladders + dismantling and recycling, billion new blue ocean market journey
From the demand point of view, the energy use of energy storage at the step-by-step end of the power lithium battery will be completely digested by the market. It is estimated that China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity will be 79.5 GW by 2020, considering that renewable energy power generation and energy storage systems account for photovoltaic power generation. The newly installed capacity of new energy generating devices is 5%-20%, and the capacity-to-power ratio is 2-4 times. It can be deduced that the demand for new energy storage systems equipped with renewable energy will reach 23.85GW in 2020. According to forecast, 2025, China's annual new potential utilization of ladders will reach 33.6GWh. The grid's economic demand for peaking and filling, the explosive growth of distributed photovoltaic installations, and the accelerating deployment of electric vehicle energy storage charging stations Demand for boosting the use of ladders continues to climb.
Recycling and dismantling ends benefit from the ever-tightening supply of raw materials and soaring prices of precious metals. There is no ceiling in the resource recovery market. With no major advances in battery composition, one of the ways to limit rapid price increases is to use precious metals in used batteries. The extraction and utilization level has been improved. Subsidy retreats have been forced since 2017. New energy depots have pushed down the ex-factory price of lithium battery cells. Since 2017, the trend of lithium battery price reduction has become apparent. Under the dual pressures of the material and demand sides, dismantling and recycling The precious metal is naturally the way to reduce the cost and increase the efficiency of the battery factory.
Demand for energy storage market for evacuation by 2020 will reach 24GW, which can fully digest the supply of decommissioned lithium batteries.
