On April 11, the Chinese version of BP World Energy Outlook (2018 Edition) was released in Beijing. It is estimated that by 2040. The total passenger vehicle volume is expected to nearly double to 2 billion by 2040, of which more than 300 million will be electric vehicles. Vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles, the total will be roughly flat by 2040.
Increase in the number of electric vehicles, significant increase in efficiency
By 2040, the number of global passenger vehicles will increase substantially. At the same time, the number of electric vehicles will increase, and vehicle efficiency will increase significantly.
Under the gradual transition scenario, the total number of passenger vehicles will nearly double to 2 billion by 2040, of which more than 300 million will be electric vehicles. Under the gradual transition scenario, the growth of electric vehicles will be faster than the basic scenario of last year’s outlook. growth of.
In addition, plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles, the total amount of the two will be roughly flat by 2040.
During the forecast period, the overall global automobile efficiency has increased by 2-3% annually, which is significantly higher than in the past 15 years. It is mainly driven by strict supervision and government goals.
30% of passenger car kilometers will use electricity
In addition, the energy demand of road traffic is increasingly affected by the combined effect of electric cars sharing travel and autopilot.
Under the gradual transition scenario, by 2040, 30% of passenger car trips will be electricity, which is significantly higher than the 15% of the global car fleet for electric vehicles (pure and mixed). The higher proportion means that electric cars will occupy an important position in sharing trips.
In the area of shared travel, the use intensity of automobiles is greater, and the cost per kilometer of electric vehicles is lower, and therefore they are more competitive than those of internal combustion engine cars. In particular, the fully-autonomous driving that will be realized around 2020 will result in a rapid decline in the cost of driving cars and result in sharing. Travel (and use of electric cars) has increased dramatically in 2030.
Under the gradual transition scenario, the penetration of electrification into the automotive market depends on the increase in the number of electric vehicles and the interaction between autonomous driving and shared travel.
