The Chinese version of "BP World Energy Outlook" was officially released yesterday (April 11th).
Dai Sipan, chief economist at BP Group, pointed out: 'Adequate energy supply coupled with continuous improvement in energy efficiency will make the competition between different energy sources increasingly fierce. With the world's society 'doing more with fewer resources' , The diversification of the energy structure will reach its ultimate goal to meet energy demand.
("BP World Energy Outlook (2018 Edition)" China Topics)
While 'China is in a critical period of energy and low-carbon transition', YANG Yangping, president of BP China, said that based on the 'gradual transformation' scenario (which aims to explore the possible impact of different judgments and assumptions), BP will make the energy situation in China in 2040. Out of the following ten judgments:
1. About a quarter of global energy consumption
By 2040, China and India will account for half of global energy demand growth. During this period, as China transitions to a more sustainable economic growth model, its energy growth will slow down. Oil demand (+28%) And natural gas demand (+194%) expanded, while coal demand declined slightly (-18%). Renewable energy generation (+789%), nuclear power (+574%) and hydropower (+32%) all grew rapidly.
It is expected that the growth of China's energy demand will slow down to 1.5% during the forecast period, less than one-third of the 6.3% average annual growth rate over the past two decades.
Although the growth of energy demand will slow down, by 2040 China will increase its share of world energy consumption from 23% in 2016 to 24%, accounting for 27% of global net growth.
Between 2016 and 2040, China's energy output increased by 45% (a global increase of 34%), and energy consumption increased by 41% (a global increase of 35%).
2. Energy intensity decreases by 1.7% annually
Compared with the historic decline of 2.5% per year, China’s energy intensity will decline at an average annual rate of 1.7% during the horizon. Between 2016 and 2040, as China’s economy grows by 115%, China’s energy intensity will decline by 34%.
3. Continuous optimization of energy structure
China’s energy structure continues to evolve, among which, the share of coal in primary energy will decrease from 62% in 2016 to 36% in 2040. The share of renewable energy will increase from 3% in 2016 to 18% in 2040. .
4. Renewable energy accounts for 31% of the world's total
The gradual increase in the proportion of renewable energy is led by China and the OECD.
China is the largest source of renewable energy, and its growth in renewable energy will exceed the sum of OECD countries. China's renewable energy will climb from 3% in 2016 to 18% in 2040, with an average annual growth of 9.5%. , It will account for 31% of global renewable energy.
5. Coal demand accounts for 41% of the world
Coal demand peaked in 2013. However, China is still the world's largest coal market during the outlook period and will account for 41% of global coal demand by 2040. Coal is still the largest source of energy for power generation by 2040.
6. Energy production accounts for only 2% of consumption in 24 years
The share of energy production in consumption rose from 80% in 2016 to 82% in 2040.
7. Average annual growth rate of nuclear power 8%
During 2016-2040, the average growth rate of nuclear power is 8%. By 2040, China will account for 36% of the global nuclear power generation.
8. Shale gas production will reach 22 billion cubic feet/day
By 2040, China will become the second largest shale gas producer after the United States, with production increasing to 22 billion cubic feet per day.
9. Oil and gas dependence on foreign investment climbs
The dependence on oil imports rose from 63% in 2016 to 72% in 2040. The dependence on natural gas imports rose from 34% to 43% in 2040.
10. Carbon emissions peaked in 2026
Carbon emissions peaked in 2026.
'We need to break away from the past to achieve a decisive breakthrough.' BP Group CEO Dedeli concluded. 'At BP, we still think that carbon pricing must be a key factor because it can motivate parties to play a role, such as more effective use. Energy consumers and producers of more low-carbon energy. '
Finally, look at a picture that shows a comparison of the gradual transition scenario and other outlooks in the BP World Energy Outlook.
