According to the analysis, Trump’s exalted trade protectionism mainly to protect American industry and at the same time to hit competitors.
As we all know, China imports a large number of chips every year, like the CPU is basically monopolized by US Intel and AMD. So, what impact will China's IT industry have on China's IT tariffs once it imposes high tariffs on the US CPU? Injury caused by Chinese machine products
At present, China's desktop CPU and server CPU are basically monopolized by Intel Corporation and AMD. Since the United States has imposed sanctions on Chinese computer products, is it possible for China to counteract the high tariffs imposed on Intel and AMD CPUs?
The imposition of high tariffs on Intel's and AMD's CPUs will protect the development of domestic CPUs for the time being. However, the blows and damage to Chinese computer products are immediate.
If high tariffs are imposed on Intel and AMD CPUs, the cost of CPU purchases for new players such as Lenovo, Shenzhou and other established PC makers, Huawei, and Xiaomi laptops will increase significantly. As the entire personal computer market has begun to shrink year by year, The market competition is very fierce, and the prices of major components such as CPUs, memory, hard disks, and motherboards are also very transparent. The high tariffs imposed on U.S. CPUs will allow Chinese mainland companies to build OEMs in China, as opposed to overseas companies. The foundry's personal computer does not have a price advantage.
In the personal computer market, consumers are very sensitive to price, and Dell computers have been ridiculed by netizens for “stupid people to buy Dell”, except that Apple can rely on beliefs to harvest high profits, the same CPU, GPU, memory, motherboard, Hard drives, if you sell more expensive, will be discarded by consumers. For example, Lenovo is cheaper than domestic users because of similar configuration. It is used by users to ridicule the US conscience. Therefore, once high tariffs are imposed on CPUs of Intel and AMD, This will cause Lenovo, Shenzhou, and Huawei's overseas markets to lose their price advantage. In the end, they can only rely on the government to survive and survive in the local market like the Japanese complete factory.
In addition, Lenovo, Asustek and other complete plants have the possibility to directly move factories overseas in order to avoid high tariffs. Foxconn, Quanta, Compal, Wistron and other foundries may also relocate factories. Once this happens, not only Failing to contain Intel, it has hollowed out its entire machine industry. Short-term results are not good, and long-term high tariffs have a certain effect.
In the short term, levying high tariffs on U.S. chips will not only undermine the interests of China's complete machine manufacturers, but the benefits of developing self-owned chips and realizing localization alternatives are not as large as some people think. They are not like some people’s imagination. High tariffs on the spirit'.
Take the desktop CPU as an example. Because the Wintel Alliance has already locked the market highly, even if it imposes 1000% tariffs on Intel and AMD, Lenovo, Huawei, and Shenzhou’s notebooks cannot purchase independent CPUs, because the autonomous CPUs cannot run Windows at all. The software ecosystem of the CPU can only meet the needs of the party and government offices and is not suitable for ordinary people. In this case, no matter how high tariffs are levied on Intel and AMD, the autonomous CPU cannot replace foreign CPUs in a short period of time. Since Lenovo, Huawei, and Shenzhou are very commercial companies, they will naturally purchase CPUs in the United States if they are not commercially profitable. Even if Lenovo, Huawei purchases its own CPU, affected by national sentiment, ordinary consumers. I also bought a computer equipped with a self-contained CPU. As a result, I discovered that this computer cannot play foreign 3A games, and can not stock up on stocks. Many commonly used software are not available. Consumers will abandon their own CPUs, and some hardware enthusiasts and enthusiasts will use their own CPUs. It would be a dog's throw, and the Internet would be filled with various pieces of these people's choreography. Then everyone exchanged the computer back to Wintel.
After all, this kind of technology monopoly of the Wintel Alliance is more effective than any tariff policy and economic sanctions. High tariffs on Intel CPUs will only lead to higher computer prices in the Chinese market with Intel CPUs.
Will high tariffs contribute to the autonomous CPU ecological construction? It's hard to say, after all, only high tariffs, not completely banned. Even if tomorrow's announcement of high tariffs on Intel and AMD CPU, can not change the amount of software is built on Wintel is based on the reality that the autonomous CPU is still lacking in ecology. In the case where the domestic mainstream CPU is still X86, there may not be many software vendors that will go to the autonomous CPU to do ecology.
However, in the long run, as the performance of autonomous CPUs continues to improve, if high tariffs allow the autonomous CPUs to have better price/performance ratios, autonomous CPUs will have larger and larger living space in areas where ecological requirements are not high. With the continuous expansion of the base areas, the ecology of autonomous CPUs will also grow. Domestic chip substitution should follow the law of industrial development in an orderly manner.
If you want to replace the CPU of the U.S. CPU, the development model of U.S. sanctions + the Great Leap Forward will come back. After all, the premise of sanctions is that you must have a hole in the cards. The premise of the National Development and Reform Commission issuing a 6 billion yuan fine for Qualcomm is in the 4G era. , China and the EU teamed up to oust Qualcomm off the altar. Samsung raised its price on memory chips last year. Even if the NDRC had an interview with Samsung, it failed to open a ticket of the same intensity, because there was no card.
What's more, industrial development has its own laws. If you do not follow the rules, you have more money, and giving more policies will also be punished by law. We have already suffered a lot of losses in the past two decades. .
To develop autonomous CPUs, there must be a combination of boxing, which requires both policy support and the injection of state funds, as well as scientific development ideas and development strategies. Both are indispensable.
Simply levying high tariffs on foreign countries does not develop an industry. After all, if the background is too bad and the internal strength cultivation goes out of its way, even if Moody's imposes high tariffs, it will not be able to achieve the rise of 'Made in India'.
While national policies create good external conditions, they must also have scientific development ideas to improve their internal strength.
In terms of internal cultivation, we must pay attention to ways and methods and must follow a gradual development path. In the past few years, leaders have been rushing to develop autonomous CPUs. Experts are in a hurry, the media are in a hurry, and ordinary people are also very anxious. The hard-won accumulation of strength and Intel, ARM hard fight, is like the initial stage of the agrarian revolution to put limited revolutionary forces into the competition in the big cities, will inevitably lead to bitter lessons.
If you can’t compete with the Dragon King, you must calm down and have the determination to sit down for 10 years. Priority must be given to starting from marginal areas and weak links. Gradually develop, just like the Chinese revolution. We must cut from the enemy’s weak links.
Starting from the national defense industry, it then enters industries such as oil, power, transportation, and finance to do industrial applications such as automatic teller machines, oil drilling chips, railway and highway traffic control chips, smart meter chips, smart door locks, and CNC machine tool control chips. , Robot control chips, etc.
Re-enter some of the electronic consumer areas that do not require a high level of software ecology, such as solid state drive masters, routers, set-top boxes, and smart home appliances.
Finally, it is the smart phones and personal computers that have relatively high requirements for software ecology. In the way of encircling the cities in the countryside, first establish their own base areas, and then gradually complete the replacement of foreign chips.