Research Adjustment: Q1 Cobalt Prices Surpassed 20%, Lithium Batteries Face Price Rising Pressure

According to the latest observation from TrendForce Green Energy Research, according to the latest observation from TrendForce Green Energy Research, the price of cobalt metal continues to rise in this (2018) year and rose by more than 20% in the first quarter. This shows that the increase in raw materials was affected by short-term capital speculation and the overall industrial supply distribution was too high. Concentration will also boost prices in the medium to long term. For the lithium battery and new energy vehicle industry, it is imperative to begin to reflect the cost of materials quarter by quarter, and also to test whether the battery industry can be adjusted as soon as possible to reduce dependence on cobalt metal.

Lü Lijun, senior research manager of EnergyTrend, pointed out that the price trend of lithium batteries has always been concerned by the market. Before the new generation of materials matures, the use of cobalt metal is the easiest way to increase energy density. With cobalt metal prices hitting new highs, from 2017 The price of US$32/kg has risen to US$75/kg (114% year-on-year), and the price in the first quarter of 2018 has risen to as high as US$95/kg (+26% in the quarter), making the new energy vehicle industry develop. The foreground adds variables.

However, the cobalt metal price changes in the short-term are mainly affected by speculative speculation in the market. The price trend is not determined by supply and demand, but depends unilaterally on the supply side. In addition, many second-tier cell batteries and battery cathode material plants have already been in this wave of raw materials. In the price fluctuation, it has been greatly impacted. Not only the purchase cost is higher than that of the big factory. System manufacturers and brand factories also rely on the big factories for cost considerations, which makes them lose their diversified supply and healthy competition.

However, although cobalt metal is still in the seller's market, the proportion of cobalt metal in the cell core of IT products is less than 5%, so the impact on end-sale prices of consumer products is limited. To reduce cost pressures, NMC blends into batteries One of the main development directions of the plant is Lv Liechen. The system plant and the brand factory must accelerate the development of more advanced material alternatives to get rid of the constraints of raw materials. In addition to the high-nickel products often mentioned in the past, silicon oxides were used as anode materials. Lithium battery production time schedule is also more urgent.

Lü Li pointed out that, unlike the above two schemes for increasing energy density, the practice of using NMC's Blended Polymer lithium-cobalt cathode material (LCO) is nearly 20% lower than that of LCO, but it can effectively reduce costs. Become the direction of manufacturers to develop, including Samsung SDI, Lejin Chemical, Li Shen and other major battery core suppliers have proposed mixed admixture scheme (>20% NMC).

However, due to the application of NMC materials to polymer batteries, the expansion rate still needs to be improved. Therefore, the industry has not accumulated complete R&D experience. It is estimated that there will be opportunities to see a small amount of mixed-type batteries in the market in the second half of 2018. However, EnergyTrend believes that If the future cobalt price declines rapidly and whether the blended blend still has market value, it still needs further observation.

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