CCID: 2017 China Semiconductor Market Review and 2018 Development Outlook

Original title: Li Wei, vice president of CCID Consulting Co., Ltd.: 2017 China Semiconductor Market Review and 2018 Development Outlook

First of all, the first one we look at China's semiconductor market, China's semiconductor market has reached 1.67 trillion last year, 20% growth rate last year, the global semiconductor market development is good. The integrated circuit market in the semiconductor field accounted for the vast majority, 1.42 trillion, growth rate is also about 20%, and the basic and global synchronization. Next we look specifically at the domestic integrated circuits in different areas and different product markets. We look at Zhao's first speech, very passionate, talked about the memory We also admire Zhao for having a very strong market perspective. Now, in China's semiconductor and integrated circuit market, memory is the number one, with the largest market share, the largest volume scale, and the largest scale of more than 40%. Second, the fastest growth rate. , 47% growth rate. Choose to invest in memory at this time, we do not say what the national strategy, the sense of mission of the enterprise, there is no doubt it is now the air. We often talk about big data, cloud computing, the global annual data turn What depends on what storage, rely on semiconductor memory.

We look at the application field again. Last year there was a rather special place. The computer field grew fastest in the past year, and the Chinese market was the same. There were two reasons. The first one was because the price of memory picked up. Second, we look at the Chinese computer output for many years. After atrophy, last year ushered in a recovery of growth, probably increased by 6.5%. Driven by two factors, the demand for chips in the Chinese computer field is huge. The above is a brief report on the market situation, that is, the oldest.

We are still returning to the issue of trade that everyone is concerned about. First of all, we say why we are going to separate our discrete devices this year. We know that the United States has to impose taxes on 1300 products in China. We have spent a long time looking at the tails from the beginning. We Discovered discrete devices, that is to say the United States to impose a tariff of 25% on China's exports to the United States discrete device products, the time has not yet arrived, the first impact on semiconductors falls on the discrete device products. We analyze the data or see The import and export of integrated circuits and integrated circuits has been very big every year, 200 billion, and it broke records again last year, with 260 billion imports and 66.8 billion exports. Together, the two added up to 327 billion US dollars. China is the most active region for semiconductor trade in the world, 3270 What is the size of the U.S. dollar? This type of import and export scale is equivalent to the sum of the import and export trade of the four regions of the United States, Japan, the European Union, and South Korea. The sum of imports and exports of a country's integrated circuits is equivalent to the sum of these four regions. So China's semiconductor is really a very open market, it is a very active market.

Secondly, we look at discrete devices. We look at imports of 28 billion U.S. dollars and exports of 26 billion U.S. dollars, basically maintaining the trade balance. Conversely, can we say that the industry of discrete devices should be said to have developed in terms of the balance between imports and exports? Yes, we analyze from country to country. Now, after all, only the United States has a trade war. The largest source of imports for China’s 260 billion integrated circuits is our Taiwan region. It’s really from the United States. The US$10.2 billion accounted for 3.9% of China’s 260 billion US dollars in IC imports. We will explain later and everybody knows what we now call the OEM or globalization. We really say that the number of chips originating in the US It's not big. This is the data seen from customs. Let's talk about exports. Last year, exports of 66.8 billion U.S. dollars were not small, and only 1.19 billion U.S. dollars were exported to the United States, accounting for 1.9%. There may be two factors. First, there is nothing left in the U.S. electronics and information manufacturing industry. Second, it is still difficult for China's integrated circuit technology to enter the United States.

If we look at discrete devices again, have discrete devices not already been sanctioned by the United States? Looking at the two data first, it brings two perspectives. Although the entire discrete device is in a trade deficit of 28 billion U.S. dollars and 26 billion U.S. dollars, it is also a division of the U.S. In the field of devices, China is a very large trading market. The number of imported products from the United States is basically maintained at around US$800 million, and exports reach US$2 billion. Last year was US$1.2 billion. This will certainly fluctuate. The Americans still choose to have China. In the trade area with a large trade surplus, it is also good to impose sanctions and policy restrictions. In the future, we have a lot of device manufacturers. In fact, many IC manufacturers also have a large number of businesses. In order to be affected, it is likely to be in the discrete device field.

Let's take a look at the specific vendor situation. We just saw that the import from the United States was only US$10 billion. We were all shocked. So we checked the financial reports of the top 20 companies and found out how much they sold in China, and American companies accounted for that. Of the 12 companies, the 13 companies can see the red, and the sales in China are far from more than 100 billion US dollars. For example, if we look at more than 50% of the US, including our Qualcomm, Broadcom, NSP 50% of the market sales are China achieved. Finally, in terms of packaging and testing, we finally calculated that 30% of imports were in the Taiwan region. The total sales of these 13 companies in the Chinese market was 66.7 billion U.S. dollars. This is a considerable figure. It can also be seen in the Chinese market. For US semiconductor companies, its importance is evident.

Let's take a look at the situation of domestic companies selling abroad. The popular 83% of the products are exported to foreign countries. Let's take a look at the financial reports of design listed companies. At the statistical level, a large number of domestic design companies’ products are sold abroad. This also confirms the discussion in the morning and afternoon, whether it is an international manufacturer or a semiconductor company in China, the internationalization is still the general trend and it is irresistible.

The above is a brief analysis of our trade situation. We will not restrict the export of complete products, and will not be transmitted to the demand for the semiconductor chip market. This first need to observe, the second needs further analysis, follow-up There will be continuous research and will report through different situations.

Finally, briefly introduce the industry situation. Last year, the size of our domestic integrated circuit industry was 541.1 billion, a growth rate of nearly 25%. China is the fastest growing region in the global integrated circuit industry. From 2000 to 2018, China’s integrated circuits over the past 18 years. The average annual growth rate of industrial sales is 20.6%, and the world is only 4.8%. Therefore, China's IC industry is the fastest growing region in the world. Last year, the IC design industry exceeded RMB 200 billion for the first time. The top 10 IC design companies are basically old. Face, we see the threshold for entry has been raised to 2 billion yuan. Chip manufacturing industry last year 144 billion yuan, growth rate of nearly 30%, it should be said that in the last decade, the chip manufacturing industry, the fastest growing point, but we say The scale of the industry, especially the scale of domestic companies, has yet to be improved. In the past week, the second phase of the Samsung project in Xi’an has just laid a foundation. The future will require only higher speeds for the development of our domestic manufacturers. At the same time, we will go horizontally to compare the threshold of the design industry to 2 billion. The entry barrier is also 2 billion. The packaging and testing industry last year was 188.9 billion, and the growth rate was among my impressions. For the first time in 18 years, it exceeded 20%. I Our leaders also talked about the fact that on the one hand we have to increase the level of integration, and that our packaging technology may be one of the main drivers for the rapid development of the integrated circuit industry, which in turn will drive the rapid and even accelerated development of the entire packaging and testing industry.

Finally, I would like to make a few suggestions. It coincides with the views of several experts. First of all, we open up and create prosperity, and innovation leads the future. This is the speech of General Secretary Xi on the first two days of the Boao Forum for Asia. This is the topic of his speech. Focusing on the development of the semiconductor industry, we must focus on two words. One is openness, and the second is innovation. We have a general manager who made a report, called computational power, and he gave examples of bit ratios. Many people may pass No matter if you go to gossip or go to see a business entrepreneur who graduated in 2009 and made a company into the second-largest IC design company in China in just four years, you will undoubtedly find a so-called enthusiasm. In the field of intelligence, or in the field of big data, in the field of changes in emerging industries, we often talk about passing cars. In fact, there are many successful cases on our side, which is worth our company to learn from and think about. Industry and capital The integration has given more impetus to the development of the industry. This time, representatives from many investment institutions are concerned about the development of our industry. We hope to find investment in the development of our industry. Opportunities, In the future, we believe that the cooperation between industry and financial industry can inject new vitality into the further development of China's semiconductor industry.

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