The trade war between China and the United States was upgraded to version 2.0 again. The United States issued a list of tariff increases. China’s counterproductive goods against the United States were mainly chemical products such as soybean beef and some types of agricultural products and some models of aviation products. Among them, PVC was affected this time, and the Ministry of Commerce planned Increase the tariff on imported PVC from the United States. Now we will analyze the impact of the upgrading of the Sino-US trade war on the PVC industry in China.
The overall pattern has no disadvantage
The trade war between China and the United States has intensified. Although the Ministry of Commerce plans to impose tariff increases on PVC imported from the United States, China is a net exporter of PVC, and most of the imports of PVC are processed by incoming materials. It is expected that the impact will be limited. PVC as a net exporter, Under international disputes, we must pay more attention to the continuous and smooth flow of exports. At present, the PVC gap in Europe itself is not small, and the PVC costs in Japan and South Korea are very high. Instead, the US PVC is currently embarking on the path of expansion. Looking at the overall market structure, there is no disadvantage to PVC.
US sanctions PVC industry has very limited impact on China
According to statistics, in 2017, China's net import of US PVC powder was about 330,000 tons; PVC paving products exported to the United States had 1,378,600 tons. According to PVC powder content, about 40%, it is equivalent to exporting PVC powder. Up to 550,000 tons. Equivalent to our country's 'net export' of 220,000 tons of PVC powder, accounting for less than 2% of the annual apparent consumption of PVC. So even if the United States took measures for the export of PVC flooring in China in the later period, The direct effect is also negligible.
Symbolism has long since faded
It is understood that currently the industry has been deeply aware of this turmoil, and it has eased its mentality relative to the trade friction between China and the United States of 1.0. After experiencing the previous US$3 billion in mutual confrontation, the PVC market on the one hand has a psychological expectation on this trade friction and In preparation, on the other hand, the market’s research on Sino-US trade confrontation has also deepened. Although the uncertainty has risen, the expectation of substantial impact has been reduced.
More impact is self
In the short term, the currency and fiscal policy will be used for hedging. In the long run, China will be forced to accelerate the transition. From the structural point of view, the PVC market will also have to follow the structural adjustment of China's economy. Many industries in China cannot rely on exports. PVC is currently in China. Net exporting countries, but as China adjusts its economic structure in the next few years, it will rely more on domestic demand to support the supply of PVC. In the short term, trade frictions cause certain macro pressures, and the external environment creates a sharp turn for PVC market support, but it can also I saw that my Congress passed a tax reduction and fee reduction, and infrastructure investment remained stable.
Against the United States PVC anti-dumping duty or continue to continue
In the short run, we mentioned some points. The direct impact of Sino-US trade friction on PVC is very limited, and most of the impact is the macroeconomic formation of bearish pressure to indirectly suppress the demand for PVC. Zhongyu Information understands that China has always been levying charges on US PVC. High anti-dumping duties, this policy should have expired in September this year. It may be due to this trade friction that this policy will continue to continue. It is actually a major advantage for China's PVC industry.