The list of products covers 1,300 individual tariff items, valued at approximately US$50 billion (314.4 billion yuan), targeted at the “China Manufacturing 2025′′ top ten emerging and high-tech industries, including aerospace, information and communications technology, machinery, and energy , Smart cars, pharmaceutical and medical industries, LED, PCB, laser equipment, semiconductor equipment, resistors and capacitors, thyristor diodes, TV terminals and some parts and components and other electronic industry chain related products are listed.
If the taxation list is finally implemented, overall, the impact of the US tax declaration on China’s 301 taxation on China’s high-tech industry will not be too great. However, individual categories and long-term observations may delay domestic related industries. Technological advancement and development process. In addition, it is not ruled out that as the tariff increases, the price of domestic related consumer goods rises and the purchasing power of domestic residents decreases.
The following is a comprehensive analysis of the details of the list and the combination of domestic industry developments by the team of analysts at the global market research institute.
United States intends to hinder the development of integrated circuits
IC is one of the key areas of the Sino-US trade war, but the team of analysts of the state-level consultancy thinks: Overall, this list has a limited impact on the Chinese semiconductor industry.
Specifically, the list of electroplating / electrophoresis / electrolysis equipment, physical meteorological deposition equipment, cleaning equipment and other related products of the integrated circuit industry chain exports to the United States accounted for very low proportion of sales, so the impact is almost negligible.
As for products such as capacitor resistance, although the influence of local manufacturers on exports to the United States is usually less than 10%, and given that the current capacity of new capacitors cannot be opened in the short term, factors such as shortage of stock prices still exist, and local manufacturers can Operational market allocation space is relatively large, and it can digest the limited impact brought by the inventory to a large extent.
In fact, China's semiconductor industry is still in the initial stage of domestic alternative import, and in a very long period of time, the main target market is still in the Chinese mainland, and the external export data will not change significantly in the short term.
However, Jibang Consulting believes that from a macro perspective, the United States behind this trade list reflects concerns about the rapid rise of China's science and technology industry, especially concerns about the rise of China's integrated circuit industry, and its determination to hinder the development of China's integrated circuit industry. Can not be ignored.
Trade wars have negligible impact on the LED industry
In addition to integrated circuits, the LED industry is also considered to be an important target for the current US tax collection.
The U.S.'s attack on the domestic LED industry is mainly delineated in the upstream chip and backlight segments, mainly including 85414020 (Light Emitting Diodes), 85419000 (Diodes, Transistors, Similar Semiconductors, Photosensitive Device Semiconductor Devices, LEDs, and Piezoelectric Crystals), and 90330020 (with LCD Backlit LED) These three categories of products.
In response, LEDinside believes that these projects account for a very low proportion of the total export value of China's LED industry. Only within 5% of the industry’s export value, the proportion of direct exports to the United States is even lower. The actual proportion of China’s real exports to the United States is the downstream applications, such as lighting products category items 94540090, 94051000, etc., but not within the scope of this list.
Therefore, this taxation list will have minimal impact on China's LED industry. For LED downstream applications in the United States, it may increase direct procurement costs. Therefore, it is expected that this matter will have little impact on China's LED industry.
Trade Warfare Inspiration: China's auto industry needs to master core technologies as soon as possible
For the automotive industry, the scope of the current taxation list in the United States is mainly reflected in sensors and navigation devices used in autopilot and motors and batteries used in new energy vehicles.
Sensors and navigation devices are the key technical support for future auto-driving of automobiles. However, American manufacturers in these fields have absolute advantages. Therefore, China's exports to the United States are less, and the impact is almost negligible.
As for the motor and battery, it is the core of new energy vehicles. At present, domestic battery products of the Ningde era are exported to BMW, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and other automobile enterprises. The proportion of exports to the United States is not large, and the final impact will not be great.
Jibang Consulting believes that although there will be little impact on domestic smart networking and new energy vehicle industry in the short term, it will even help Chinese companies gain space and opportunities for independent technological innovation and enhance the strength of independent intellectual property rights. But in the long run, when the industry enters To the stage of intense competition, and China has not yet mastered the core technologies, the tariff list may hinder China from mastering the low-carbon, informatization, and intelligent core technologies of automobiles.
Therefore, for the domestic automobile industry, it is necessary to master the core technologies of smart driving, motors, and batteries as soon as possible.
China's new energy is still limited by the Sino-US dual reaction, Article 201
As regards new energy, since the 301 clause relates to electromechanical related equipment, the industry is most concerned about inverter and bracket products.
However, the list of this publication does not include inverter products. Among the three materials commonly used in photovoltaic stents are stainless steel, aluminum alloys, galvanized carbon steel, and hot-dip galvanized steel, galvanized carbon steel and heat. Zinc-leaching products are not included in the list of 301 articles. Aluminum alloys are used in photovoltaic stents which are much larger than stainless steel products. However, aluminum alloy materials used in photovoltaic frames and component frames are also not on the list.
Jijun Consulting New Energy Research Center (EnergyTrend) judged that this 301 clause has no direct impact on China's photovoltaic industry. Currently, the solar trade relationship between China and the United States is mainly limited by the trade barriers between China and the United States, and Article 201, etc. The list does not include solar energy products, so the solar energy trade between China and the United States will still be implemented in accordance with existing trade barriers.
Other high-tech industries
In addition to the above-mentioned several key high-tech industries, this list also covers areas such as PCBs, laser equipment, displays, and foot prints.
Among them, the PCB project list mainly relates to TV applications, and local PCB manufacturers export to the United States also less, so the impact on the local PCB is not significant.
The list of laser equipment is mainly used in metal processing and printed circuits. China's total laser-related equipment exported to the United States in 2017 was approximately US$46 million, with minimal impact on local Chinese manufacturers. Take Dazu Laser as an example and exports to the United States annually. The proportion of laser equipment is only about 1%.
It is worth noting that the list refers to panel displays and color TV products. Each year, China exports more than 20 million TV products to the United States. In 2017, it reached 22.96 million units, worth US$4.55 billion. This will produce a certain amount of TV brand manufacturers in mainland China. influences.
According to the analysis of the above-mentioned analysts of the state-level analysts, in the short-term, the list of taxable products issued by the United States in addition to the certain impact on the TV brand manufacturers will have limited impact on LED, photovoltaic, automotive, and semiconductor industries. To a certain extent, it is beneficial to force Chinese companies to innovate independently and accelerate the domestic substitution process. However, in the long run, this may hinder China from mastering core technologies in the fields of automobiles and semiconductors.
The direction of this trade war cannot be immediately concluded, but how the two sides balance their concerns and appeals will be the focus of the next two discussions.
It is worth noting that the latest news that US President Trump suddenly issued a 'friendly tweet' on April 8 said: 'China will remove trade barriers. Taxes will be mutually beneficial, and both parties will reach an agreement on intellectual property rights. There is a bright future! 'This tone of mitigation is quite different from Trump's statement issued by the White House a few days ago. And Chinese President Xi Jinping also said at the opening ceremony of the Boao Forum for Asia that 'China does not pursue a trade surplus. As a goal, we sincerely hope to increase imports and promote current account balance.
Although the trade dispute between China and the United States is still "too" for you to come to me, both China and the United States have also released signals that they are willing to negotiate and ease the contradictions. We hope that both parties can handle trade disputes as soon as possible in accordance with the principles of peace and friendship.