The Agricultural Machinery Circulation Association of China announced that China's agricultural machinery market sentiment index was 70.3% in March 2018, up 32.8 percentage points month-on-month, and up 8.0 percentage points year-on-year. From the quarter-on-quarter comparison, the five first-level indices showed an upward trend, with the highest increase in the popularity index. It is 48.9 percentage points. From the same period of last year, except for the slight decrease of the agricultural machinery subsidy index in the six Tier 1 indices, the other five Tier 1 indices all showed an upward trend, among which manager confidence index increased the most, at 19.0 percentage points. The six first-order indexes are all located in the boom period.
Special analyst Zhang Huaguang believes: In March, AMI achieved a 'butterfly' change from a deep recession to a booming economy. The chain climbed sharply and was also higher than the same period of last year. The first-level index and the second-level index all entered the boom period; The seven other three-tier indices outside the index also advanced into the boom period, suggesting that the agricultural machinery market season is approaching. From the intrinsic logic analysis of each index, the rising popularity index became the tipping point for this month’s index, because the popularity index directly boosted manager’s confidence. The index, which indirectly pushed up the inventory index. The sales performance index and benefit index rose year-on-year and year-on-year, becoming a realistic reflection of this month’s index's entry into the economic range. In March, AMI went deeper across the board with its deeper driving force. Mainly due to: First, in January, the market bottomed out in February, forming a 'climbing ground', releasing market energy in March; secondly, in recent years, the corn, wheat harvester and tractor market continued to slump, directly touching rigid and updating two-way demand Thirdly, the beginning of the spring plowing, the market is in the traditional peak season. In April, when the outlook has begun, it faces a high popularity index, and the agricultural machinery subsidies are fully spread. The traditional peak season The favorable conditions and the complex environment in which the manager’s confidence index in March turned inflection point, for example, AMI or the following trends: First, the AMI will continue to stay in the boom zone; second, the index with higher returns, etc., may fall back in the ring; the third is the inventory index or Falling into the recession zone; Fourth, the agricultural machinery subsidy index rose or rose steadily; fifth, some of the three-level index fell into the recession range.